KY Senate Poll: Paul 41% Conway 31%

[WI_DEM]

(this is the first poll I've seen since the primary giving Paul such a big lead. I wonder if the people of KY are really willing to elect this nut to the senate? Anybody heard of Braun Research?)

Braun Research for CN2 Politics
8/2-4/10; 802 likely voters, 3.5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(CN2 Release)

Kentucky

2010 Senate
41% Paul (R), 31% Conway (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Jack Conway: 44 / 21
Rand Paul: 50 / 26

[Name removed]

1. Deleted message

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[activa8tr]

2. Rand Paul will do absolutely nothing if elected, and the voters of

KY are too stupid to figure that out.

He will just take his salary and make speeches. Much like Sarah Palin in pants.

[BootinUp]

3. A poll that is missing 28% is worthless, absolutely worthless.

[totodeinhere]

8. You can say that, but wouldn't you still rather have Conway leading in that poll?

I doubt if Paul is really up by ten points, but at the very least this poll indicates that it might be a close race. And having a close race where Paul has a legitimate chance of winning is scary to me. It's almost as scary as the latest Las Vegas Review Journal poll that has Angle in a statistical dead heat with Harry Reid.

[Drunken Irishman]

12. Not entirely worthless...

Sure, the fact so many are undecided helps.

However, look at it from this POV:

Paul has a base of 41%. That means he only needs to garner about 9% more to win this thing.

Conway, however, sits at 31%. That means he needs to garner about 19% more to win this thing.

What's more likely?

This is the same argument I used FOR Obama in 2008 when polls showed him leading McCain sometimes 45-35.

McCain's numbers continually stalled at 40% and it ultimately led to an election defeat.

If Conway can't get his numbers into the 40s - the fact he's where he is at will seal his election loss.

[karynnj]

4. Here the huge undecided is very telling

At this point the Democratic and Republican candidates have been known for months - yet only 72% are willing to state a preference. I suspect the other - closer polls - did more to "push" people to decide. The scarier number is that 50% have a favorable opinion of Paul.

[RBInMaine]

5. Conway is a good candidate. To win he needs to ATTACK this guy as an extremist nutjob relentlessly

while chanting a "Main St. vs. Wall. St." jobs agenda and his moderate to conservative views on some of the social issues. (Sorry, but he is in Kentucky. They are pretty conservative, overall, in that state.)

[DavidDvorkin]

6. This is really depressing.

[KingFlorez]

7. Too many undecideds

The other polls I've seen for this race have less undecideds. The last poll this outfit did had the race 41-37, so it's a bit odd that Paul stayed the same and Conway dropped 6 points.

[Drunken Irishman]

13. I think the problem overall is that Conway appears to be stuck in the 30s.

31 or 37% is not a good place for a candidate this late in the game. He still has time, but he needs to make his move quick. If he's still in the 30s come September, I don't think he'll have enough power to grab the 20% needed to win this thing.

[mkultra]

9. KY lol. heh....hehe

[secondwind]

10. KY is 40% illiterate. that explains it.

[Enthusiast]

11. Come on, Conway. Ramp it up! nt