Krugman: Bending The Curve

[ProSense]

Bending The Curve

The new Medicare Trustees Report is out. Comparing Table IIIA-2 in this year’s report and last year’s report, we get this:



Medicare Trustees

In other words, the Medicare actuaries believe that the cost-saving provisions in the Obama health reform will make a huge difference to the long-run budget outlook. Yes, it’s just a projection, and debatable like all projections. And it’s still not enough. But anyone who both claims to be worried about the long-run deficit and was opposed to health reform has some explaining to do. All the facts we have suggest that health reform was the biggest move toward fiscal responsibility in a long, long time.

[BootinUp]

1. Wow, it appears to be significant.

Change we voted for. I withhold the believing part for now.

[Beetwasher]

2. Wow, That's A Pretty Stunning Graph!

:wow:

[MannyGoldstein]

3. I'm confused. What's the cost savings caused by?

The only cost saving measure that I know of was the "Cadillac" tax, which I didn't think was a big deal.

Are the Medicare actuaries apolitical like the CBO?

[BootinUp]

4. I seem to recall that Medicare money

was being funnelled through corps, and that was either eliminated or greatly reduced. Its probably all in the report.

[MannyGoldstein]

5. Eliminating private entities saves money?

Hmmm....

[bain_sidhe]

6. Yeah, something about reducing the "Medicare Advantage" difference.

IIRC, "Medicare Advantage" plans are offered by private insurance companies and sort of combine traditional Medicare benefits with the benefits people would buy as "MediGap" policies. But somehow, I'm not exactly sure of the mechanism, when those traditional Medicare benefits went through a Medicare Advantage plan, the government paid more than if they were delivered through traditional Medicare. (Not talking about the "extras" the MA plans offered, but the services that Medicare pays for in either type of plan.)

Anyway, the health care reform reduced the difference between what was paid under a MA plan and what was paid under traditional Medicare for the same service.

[MannyGoldstein]

9. Yes, the government paid more for those than for standard Medicare

Which was totally nuts.

Could that be the difference?

[scheming daemons]

7. It always confuses someone when the facts don't jibe with the reality in their head

You've demonized the HCR law so much, you've come to believe it is a bad law.

When facts are presented that prove that belief to be wrong, the cognitive dissonance in your head is experienced as "confusion".

[MannyGoldstein]

8. OK - so what are the facts?

I'm an evidence-based kinda guy, and I'm not afraid to admit when I'm wrong. That's why I'm asking the question, because the chart is, at fist blush, different from my understanding. Perhaps my understanding is wrong, I'd like to know, and to know why.

[ProSense]

11. The facts are in the OP,

which includes a link to the Trustees' report.

[MannyGoldstein]

12. Looks like the facts are in the chief actuary's appendix nt

[underpants]

10. You mean governance and paying attention to an issue might make a difference?

Shocked I am... not