Good news! NH looking more competitive! (PPP poll for Senate race)

[HughMoran]

Tuesday, July 27, 2010
NH looking more competitive

Kelly Ayotte's seen her appeal to moderate voters crumble in the wake of her endorsement by Sarah Palin and her lead over Paul Hodes has shrunk to its lowest level of any public polling in 2010- she has a 45-42 advantage over him, down from 47-40 in an April PPP poll.

There's not much doubt that the shift in the race is all about Ayotte. Hodes' favorability numbers have seen little change over the last three months. Where 32% of voters saw him positively and 39% negatively in April, now 35% have a favorable opinion of him to 40% with an unfavorable one. But Ayotte's seen a dramatic decline. Her favorability spread of 34/24 in April was the best we've measured for any Republican Senate candidate so far this year but her negatives have risen 15 points since that time while her positives have increased only 2 and she now stands at 36/39.

Most of the movement both in feelings about Ayotte and in the horse race has come with moderate voters. Moderates make up the largest bloc of the New Hampshire electorate at 47%, and Hodes' lead with them has expanded from just 8 points at 47-39 in April to now 21 points at 51-30. Ayotte's favorability with them has gone from +5 at 32/27 to -19 at 27/46.

The Palin endorsement may well be playing a role in this. 51% of voters in the state say they're less likely to back a Palin endorsed candidate to only 26% who say that support would make them more inclined to vote for someone. Among moderates that widens to 65% who say a Palin endorsement would turn them off to 14% who it would make more supportive.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/07/nh-looking-more-competitive.html

[joeybee12]

1. Sarah Palin is the kiss of death...just ask...

Levi Johnston.


:evilgrin:

[HughMoran]

2. Good news in a critical Senate seat! Unrec!!

I swear, we have more people undercutting Dems than supporting them.

[quiet.american]

3. Excellent, Hugh. Will check out Hodes website and see if I can donate.

It would be awesome, awesome, awesome to have a Democrat take the GOP seat there.

[HughMoran]

4. I'm on the mailing list now because I gave a couple of weeks ago

I'm glad I did too - this sort of news helps energize me and other Dems in NH.

For those unreccing - this would be a pick up since Gregg is retiring.

Oh, and Hodes in a good liberal candidate. Shame on those who have unrecced this. Shame!

[quiet.american]

7. Hugh, didn't realize he's already a Congressman, too. Like his voting record.

Looked it up and liked what I saw. Makes me hope even more that he routs Ayotte in November.

[HughMoran]

8. Yeah, he's a good guy.

He was at this rally in 2008.

[quiet.american]

9. Wow - is that a pic you took? Great pic. nt

[HughMoran]

10. Yep - can you see the rain in the picture?

Here he is shaking Gov. Lynch's hand, I missed the shot with Hodes though.

[DCBob]

5. Great news! Things are a changing!

:toast:

[Ross K]

6. Wile E. Ayotte and Half-Gov Youbetcha

:rofl: