The DOW is over 10,000 right now.

[jenmito]

It will either close over 10,000 or mighty close to it. What does this say about a supposed "double-dip"?

[dmallind]

1. To be honest - same as it did at 9600 or so. Not much

Variations in DJIA closes are not indicative of anything substantive on a timeline shorter than years.

[jenmito]

8. But it's up 286 points right now.

:shrug:

[dmallind]

12. Yepo - and that's good. But not all that significant. The trick of course is

knowing that when it's down 286 you can just swap "good" for "bad" but keep all the rest of that statement.

[BootinUp]

2. The major players don't see one

coming. GS, Pimco etc. Although the recovery is still seen as slow going.

[JoePhilly]

3. You are just asking for trouble ....

:nuke:

[BootinUp]

4. This has never discouraged

the OP as far as I can tell. ;)

[the other one]

5. Is that you Maria Bartoromo?

Oy vey

[jenmito]

6. Why-do I sound like a RWer? n/t

[RBInMaine]

7. Once financial reform passes and the markets settle after that, the economy will begin doing even

better because that piece of market uncertainty will be over and small business lending will increase.

[jenmito]

9. True,

the market hates uncertainty.

[earthside]

14. Repeat. Repeat. Repeat.

Then click your heels together three times and close your eyes.

Then when you open your eyes you'll discover yurself in the economic wonderland of the 1990s.

[NJmaverick]

11. very good point

[xchrom]

10. Why? Do you want it to say something? Nt

[DCBob]

13. Not really sure what caused this huge bounce..

Some are saying it was due to Obama's speech on trade.

[DrToast]

15. Honestly, it doesn't say much

The stock market is what's known as a short leading indicator of economic activity and it's actually a pretty weak one. It's generally too volatile to discern economic trends from it.

There are plenty of reasons to believe a double dip is unlikely. The stock market doesn't help much though.

[cherokeeprogressive]

16. Nary a thing (either in support of or defense against). n/t

[Oregone]

17. It says nothing

Does that disappoint you? Did you want it to say something?

[TheWatcher]

18. It says that you along with millions of other Americans put far too much "Stock" in the Stock Market

Having anything to do with the Real Economy.

Here is the Official Propaganda Line behind the Move today from YahPravda, The Weekly Reader of the Financial World:

Wall Street rallies on earnings optimism

By Angela Moon

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks logged their best one-day gain in about six weeks on Wednesday after a bullish forecast from financial company State Street Corp fueled optimism about the coming earnings season and helped the S&P 500 break above a major resistance level.

State Street (NYSE:STT - News) shares closed 9.9 percent higher at $36.63 after the asset manager and custody firm said quarterly earnings would far exceed expectations, providing a lifeline to investors after several weeks of dismal economic reports.

Bank stocks led the way, but investors ("investors") :rofl: also scooped up beaten-down industrial and technology shares.

"There is some confidence now that there will be more positive surprises than negative during the earnings season," said Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald & Co in San Francisco.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Wall-Street-surges-on-rb-2051824079.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

SO there you have it.

"Forecasts", "Optimism", Hyperbole, and BS

Based on Nothing.

Everyone Can Go Back to Sleep Now.

Permanent Prosperity Is Here. :)

[golfguru]

19. Dow has been over 13,000 before

so this is just nothing more than a dead cat bounce.
We are headed much lower this year.

[JoePhilly]

20. sorry to say this .... but you have no clue ...

Look at the DOW running average from say 2000 - 2006 ... its at about 10k to 12k ... moves up and down, but is basically flat.

Then there is a spike ... runs up to 13k as you note ... then to 14k ... and stays there for about 10 minutes ... then falls back to earth ... passes through the running average I mention above ... all the way to ~6500 in March 2009.

That point was the time to BUY!!!!!!!

Within 9 months of that LOW, Dec 2009, where was the DOW ... ??? 10,500.

WOW ... right back to that running average.

If you were SMART ... you sold at around 13k, and bought at around 8k ... and rebalanced when we returned to that running average at the end of 2009.

[golfguru]

22. How do you know 6500 was the bottom in March 09?

I read more experts saying it would fall further.

But that only proves no one knows. May be you are SMART.
So smart guy, tell me what will be the high in 2010?
And what will be the low in 2011?

[JoePhilly]

23. The most recent bottom, over say ten years, was ~6500 back in 3/09

That's simply a fact.

As for what the DOW is now, and what it "should be".

Consider that by Jan 2010, the DOW had returned to the running average ... hitting ~10,500. From there it continued UP to about 11,500 by late April of this year. 11,500 is close to the upper bound of that running average.

Given the recent collapse, and the fragile economy, that's to high to fast. Thus the recent retreat.

The OP above was claiming that the very recent drop to ~9700 signaled the end of the world, ignoring that we had a similar retreat back in May.

And as we see the last 3 days, the DOW has bounced back to above 10k yet again. If you look at a DOW chart for the past 10 years ... other than the spike and immediate collapse, the DOW has stayed pretty much in that running average.

Currently, the market appears to be testing the edges of that running average of 10k to 12k. Given the continued weakness in the economy, the lower bound is being tested more often ... and each time we drop to about 9700 ... folks come in to buy on the low side of that running average. Pushing it back up into the running average again.

As for what comes next ... personally, I don't expect it to get much above 11k any time soon. For all of the media gasping about double-dip, deficits, etc ... confidence will remain muted for a while ... but, if we continue to see job numbers that are within expectations (modest growth) then the DOW will hold probably fairly steady, and start to test that upper bound.

The next numbers to watch are 2Q earnings which start to come out next week. If those meet expectations, or exceed them then we should get some stabilization in the DOW and fewer knee-jerk 3 digit jumps one way or the other.

As for the high for this year ... I think we may have already seen it back in April at about 11,500. I won't be surprised if we test the floor of that average at least once more, another drop to 9600 or so ... but by the elections, we're probably right about where we are now, maybe a little higher.

Next year ... I think 12k is a potential reasonable high, but to get there responsibly, I'd want to see about 6 months of the DOW above 10,000, spending 3 to 4 months of that above 10,500. Then 12k isn't so unlikely.

My advice near term, if the DOW drops under 9700, buy ... if it gets above 11,000, sell or re balance to capture gains to be used the next time the floor of the average is tested.

[golfguru]

26. 9700-11,000 sounds reasonable

However if GOP regains either house or senate in November, the
market may put up a rally. Just my guess.

I also use another strategy based on seasons. I lighten up in May-June
and load up in November-January.

[TheKentuckian]

21. Close enough to nothing as to make no difference. I'm also waiting for the 1st dip

to be over before I worry about seconds.

[mochajava666]

24. That says absolutely nothing

But give Obama credit for the sun coming up this morning also while you're at it.

[TexasObserver]

25. The "double dip" meme is now entering its second year.

I don't believe it when it goes too high, and I don't believe it when it goes too low. The market is best understood as easily spooked herd animals, who instinctively overreact to any perceived threat to their status quo.

I expect the DOW to be around 11k by year's end, and that expectation has not changed over the past six months.