DE-Sen: Castle Has Edge Over Biden

[ccharles000]

Public Policy Polling (pdf) (11/30-12/2, registered voters, 3/5-8 in parentheses):

Beau Biden (D): 39 (36)
Mike Castle (R): 45 (44)
Undecided: 16 (20)
(MoE: ±3.5%)

When PPP last looked at the Senate race in Delaware -- back in March, when the idea of Mike Castle getting into the race seemed kind of odd -- they found Castle with an 8-point edge. Not much has changed in the intervening months, even though Castle caught a lot of people off guard by making his entry official; Castle still holds a 6-point lead. This is a little more pessimistic than the most recent few polls (a 5-point Biden lead according to Susequehanna and a 1-point Castle lead according to R2K), but taken together, they average out to a very tight race.

Both have good favorables, with Biden at 43/35 and Castle at 55/28; the key number seems to be that Castle is cleaning up among independents (52-23), which helps him to overcome the Democratic registration advantage in Delaware. Obama has 53/41 approval, which doesn't seem particularly out-of-whack with where things stand nationally, but one strange finding is that the House health care reform bill had a net negative, 43-46, in this sample -- suggesting that Castle's vote may not have done him as much damage with this sample as it seemed to do with Susquehanna's sample a few weeks ago.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/5974/desen-castle-has-edge-over-biden

[Dr Robert]

1. no, he doesn't

Biden will win with no problems.

[PBS Poll-435]

2. (According to the Poll)

:facepalm:


Yeah I think he will win too. Especially with so many undecided.

[goclark]

4. I hope Biden wins ~ why did you say

No he doesn't -- were the numbers wrong?

[Dr Robert]

6. that poll is junk

PPP has little credibility,
but they make some good propaganda.

[goclark]

7. Thanks Dr.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

3. No problem... we can lose independents more than 2:1... everything good...

The movement of independents in various races is such bad news it's almost hard to really take in.

"the key number seems to be that Castle is cleaning up among independents (52-23)"

Yes, the ranks of indys are somewhat swelled with Republican defectors who fled Bush but worse than 2:1 is unreal. Pretty much what happened in Virginia and NJ.

[Ken Burch]

5. Maybe people have him mixed up with the crimesolving author on that TV show

n/t.

[WI_DEM]

8. Depends on turnout. If Dems come out, fine, if they sit at home, it's Sen. Castle.