So the worst has happened-US consumer confidence crumbles and the double dip recession awaits

[Politics_Guy25]

My words not anyone else's first of all but the signs are unfortunately abundant that the worst fears of a year ago, i.e., a double dip recession, have come to pass. Kudos to those DUers who said it would. We have unemployment expected to rise to 9.8% on Friday, we have US consumer confidence crumbling, we have global stock markets reeling (dow down 260 points), we have the fed issuing dire warnings and we have a public brainwashed into thinking that the only solution to this massive crisis, more stimulus, is evil.

Not good. Links below:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37992956/ns/business-consum... /

updated 6/29/2010 3:19:08 PM ET
Share Print Font: +-NEW YORK — Americans, worried about jobs and the sluggish economic recovery, are having a relapse in confidence, causing a widely watched index to tumble in June and raising concerns about consumer spending in the critical months ahead.

The Conference Board, a private research group based in New York, said Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index dropped almost 10 points to 52.9, down from the revised 62.7 in May. Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters had been expecting the reading to dip slightly to 62.8.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37919340/ns/business-stocks... /

msnbc.com news services
updated 6/29/2010 4:48:13 PM ET
Share Print Font: +-NEW YORK — No matter where they look, investors are seeing economic trouble.

Stocks and interest rates tumbled Tuesday after signs of slowing economies from China to the U.S. spooked traders who were already uneasy about a global recovery.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 268 points, or 2.7 percent, and dropped below 10,000. The benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 index closed at its lowest level since October.

Interest rates fell in the Treasury market after demand for the safety of government debt grew. The yield on the 10-year note dropped to as low as 2.96 percent, the first time it has fallen below 3 percent since April 2009. The yield is used as a benchmark for many consumer loans and mortgages.

Do any of you see any hope to avoid a lost decade ala Japan in the 1990s?

Things are starting to look as dark now as they did in 2008 again.

[hlthe2b]

1. Seems like the only thing selling is Iphone4

(and I'm NOT buying....)

[JCMach1]

21. and it's made in China...

:(

[DURHAM D]

2. And the sad part - Democrats are in control.

Its like they have all forgotten who they are and why they wanted to be in office.

Hello - the middle class is drowning out here.

No middle class = a lousy country.

Wish I could offshore myself.

[NRaleighLiberal]

5. Hey Durham from Raleigh - best place to offshore we here in NC is to Ocracoke!

That is exactly where we will be for two weeks on Oct....those long walks on the quiet, pristine beach help soothe the politics-addled soul (that is, unless my wife and I are cleaning oil off the beach...which is entirely possible!)

[DURHAM D]

9. I can't afford to move there.

Have fun. Hope its clean. Don't eat the shrimp.

[NRaleighLiberal]

12. Who can afford to move there! But two weeks offseason is doable...

The mental break is worth whatever it costs!

[obxhead]

15. Yes it is. nt

[Politics_Guy25]

6. There is one good thing

This happened between 1980-1982 as well and by 1983, it was and I hate to say that joker's phrase "morning in America". So maybe, 2011 will be a new morning in America.

Here's a link:
History of Double-Dip Recessions
The double-dip recession is rare. In modern times, since World War II, there was a double-dip recession during the 1980-1982 period. The economy was in a recession in the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 1980. It then recovered (by GDP standards) and fell back into recession in the fourth quarter of 1981 and the first quarter of 1982.

One thing that happened during that time period that we do not have now is inflation and high interest rates. High inflation defeated income growth. Some economists say unemployment will do the same thing now. However, the Federal Reserve is determined to keep interest rates low through 2010.

There are similarities and differences between the 1980-82 double-dip recession and the Great Recession. The one thing we know is that we are generally into a recession before we know it. If we fall into a double-dip recession, we will likely be into that second dip long before anyone can really call it.

The absence of inflation makes a double dip appearing bizarre. I don't really know what's going on out there.

[DURHAM D]

14. Well - one problem is that we no longer make anything in this country.

Oh wait, I forgot, we make "housing".

But we don't even need that now.

What's going to lead us out?

I am thinking about investing in Conoco/Phillips. Its right here on my desk. What do you think?

[brentspeak]

10. However, the progressive Democrats are NOT in control

They've been outflanked and outmaneuvered and outvoted by the corporate wing of the party.

[DURHAM D]

17. iow - they are not DEMOCRATS anymore nt

[DrToast]

3. Consumer confidence is pretty much worthless as an economic indicator

You're overreacting, dude.

[DrToast]

7. To give you an idea of what I mean

Here is an article about the Michigan consumer sentiment index released just last Friday.

http://www.bizjournals.com/albuquerque/stories/2010/06/21/daily55.html

[Politics_Guy25]

8. I hope you're right Dr.Toast but...

if you are, why is the Dow down 2,000 points in 2 months. I think it was at 11,800 at the end of April.

[DrToast]

16. Because the economy is still sluggish. That doesn't necessarily mean another recession

Don't get me wrong, things aren't booming right now. But double dip recessions are extremely rare. What is often forgotten about the early 80s double dip period was that the Fed deliberately caused the second recession to beat inflation.

[Politics_Guy25]

19. Interesting-thanks for your insight and info-n/t

[grantcart]

25. Really - I think it has proven to be a very good pre indicator

Interested if you have any articles that discredit it.

[vaberella]

32. I only listen to you on this board in regards to this stuff.

And your thought was my thought.

[truedelphi]

4. Apparently by Thursday the proverbial will really be hitting the fan.

If you read Karl Denninger, you know what I mean.

[DJ13]

13. Yep, those massive loans to EU banks all come due Thursday

[Dr.Phool]

30. I read Denninger.

He gets a little tea-baggy sometimes, but overall he has some good insights, and provides the math to back it up.

[truedelphi]

33. I get a lil tea baggy myself sometimes, on some issues,

LIKE AUDIT THE DAMN FED!

[AtomicKitten]

11. Be afwaid. Be vewy, vewy afwaid.

[girl gone mad]

20. Wow.

People are losing their jobs, their homes, and their livelihoods and you make mocking baby talk.

Eww.

[AtomicKitten]

31. Yes I'm mocking the transparently political Chicken Little prophecies of doom. nt

[hollowdweller]

18. My confidence is not super high

The people making money in the US are not those that are creating new products, or making anything useful.

The financial sector is skimming too much off of the economy.

A lot of the people making big money aren't really doing anything truly useful to the economy.

We have failed to enact any laws to encourage long term investment and discourage short term speculation.

The people being charged the most for borrowing money are those least able to afford those terms.

The chickens of putting the bankers in charge and free trade have finally came home to roost.

[Aramchek]

22. thanks for letting us know right away that this was just a bullshit opinion

[Name removed]

23. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Jennicut]

24. Krugman is right, Schiff and co are nuts. Schiff was running for the

Senate Seat here in CT (and my Mom worked for his Dad in the early 70's, another story for another day). But spending cuts and austerity seems like it will just slip us into a double dip faster. Wouldn't it be better to keep adding money to the economy? Of course, I doubt much more then unemployment benefits as a stand alone bill will pass this Congress.

[Aramchek]

27. Double Dip!!! Double Dip!!! get your latest GOP talking point hyah!!!

[treestar]

26. These measures go up and down short term

Why make so much drama and predict the worst?

[depakid]

28. Some of us knew this would be coming from simple arithmatic back in February 2009

[Dr.Phool]

29. Shhhhh......that requires thinking and research.