NYT: Democrats See Signs of Hope in Job Trends

[impik]

A struggling economy has historically meant trouble for the president’s party in midterm elections. So it comes as no surprise that Democrats are girding for a tough November.

But digging deeper, beyond the national numbers, reveals at least a few glimmers of hope for Democrats — still fairly distant and faint, but bright enough to get campaign strategists scanning the horizon and weighing the odds.

That is because different parts of the country are recovering at different rates — and, in a bit of electoral good luck for the Democrats, some of the areas that are beginning to edge upward more quickly, like parts of Ohio, Pennsylvania and New York, happen to be in important battlegrounds for the House and the Senate.

“A lot of the trend lines are turning positive in many of these contested areas,” said Mark Zandi, a chief economist for Moody’s Analytics. “It really boils down to: Is there enough time for the trend lines to trump the still pretty difficult conditions in the minds of the voters?”

The Times has identified 114 House seats and 17 Senate seats that are expected to be the most competitive in November. The largest numbers of closely contested elections are expected to be in Pennsylvania, New York and Ohio, where The Times projects a combined 26 competitive House races.

All three states, coincidentally, are considered to be on the leading edge of the nation’s recovery. Since December, they have added jobs at a faster rate than the country as a whole and even led the country in the total number of jobs added in April. One reason is that manufacturing, a traditional backbone, has been on the rebound; another is that these states generally did not suffer as acutely as other regions from the housing boom and bust.


Read more:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/25/us/politics/25memo.html

[Clio the Leo]

1. It's going to be about the message war...

... case in point, a friend of mine who lives in OH is upset because FEMA denied disaster relief to the area that had the recent tornado (saying that the damage was not significant enough that the state and local authorities needed Federal help.)

So she mentioned (via Twitter) that she hopes "that voters remember this in the fall" ... and was quite critical of of Sen. Brown. Now, it's Gov. Strickland (Obama's pie buddy) and Sen Brown who were the ones asking for the aid ... I'm at a loss as to how it's the Dems fault that FEMA denied it.

Sometimes, people blame the other side for whatever the problem at the moment is simply BECAUSE they are the other side.

[WI_DEM]

2. Here in Wisconsin a report yesterday put our unemployment rate the lowest in over a year--and

below the natiional average.

[quaker bill]

3. It is not going to be a close as people believe

Repugs might pick up a few, but could still lose a few. The economy will keep turning positive. The storyline will be far more upbeat by November.