As Generals Change, Afghan Debate Narrows to 2 Powerful Voices

[Jennicut]

By MARK LANDLER and HELENE COOPER
Published: June 24, 2010

WASHINGTON — The messy departure of Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal is likely to make the Obama administration’s internal debates over Afghanistan even more pointed, giving the military a powerful advocate for staying the course as it prepares for a reckoning with more impatient officials like Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr.

President Obama insisted he was switching military leaders, not strategies, when he fired General McChrystal, the top commander in Afghanistan, on Wednesday. But administration insiders acknowledge that there have been preliminary discussions about whether to rethink the approach to a war that is clearly bogging down.

In those deliberations, the new commander, Gen. David H. Petraeus, brings more political capital than his predecessor. The White House may find it harder to overrule the man who rode to the rescue after the McChrystal blowup, particularly since he has so much support among Republicans and Democrats on Capitol Hill. He wrote the Army’s field manual on counterinsurgency strategy, and has voiced only qualified support for Mr. Obama’s timetable to start withdrawing troops by July 2011.

Mr. Obama reiterated Thursday that the pace of withdrawal would be open to debate. “We did not say that starting July 2011 suddenly there would be no troops from the United States or allied countries in Afghanistan,” he said. “We didn’t say we’d be switching off the lights and closing the door behind us. We said that we’d begin a transition phase in which the Afghan government is taking on more and more responsibility.”

At the same time, though, the setbacks on the battlefield and persistent questions about the reliability of the Afghan president, Hamid Karzai, have strengthened Mr. Biden’s hand, some officials said. During the policy debate last fall, he argued for a narrower counterterrorism strategy with many fewer troops and a clear endgame for the United States. In many ways, setting the July 2011 date was a concession to Mr. Biden.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/25/world/europe/25petraeus.html

In December there is the official review of COIN or whatever they want to call it in Afghanistan. It is currently failing. I doubt even Petraeus can turn it around.

[gateley]

1. I've read so many articles about this I forget where I saw this particular tidbit,

but it essentially said that Patraeus told Obama that Afghanistan is not just like Iraq. (This was previously - not as a result of the McChrystal happening.)

But I have to wonder -- with the "boots on the ground" comments contained in the RS article about how much of a headache Afghanistan is, don't you think Obama has to be wondering if Joe's initial approach may have been better than the one they pursued? I sure hope so.

Plus, with McChrystal saying ideally they'd need to be there at least 10 more years, they've got to re-think this whole thing.

[Jennicut]

2. To do nation building in Afghanistan would take years, not until 2011.

Does Obama really want this around his neck in 2012? It is losing a lot of support here. Of course, people still voted for Bush in 2004 but I think we came a long time from that. Notice that Emmanuel and Biden have stressed the 2011 date but Gates has tried to brush it off. There is one heck of an internal debate coming in December.

[gateley]

3. I am just baffled by the whole Afghan thing. As I understand it, with the

Taliban gaining strength, they're not too chummy with Al Q so are we saying that the Taliban is in cahoots with Al Q or not?

And we know Karzai will continue to play both sides, just like Musharraf took Bush's money to 'fight terrorism' and did whatever he wanted with it.

So again and again I ask - what is it we hope to accomplish? I've yet to receive a satisfactory answer.

Although at odds with a military man's raison d'etre, I wonder if Patraeus will have to concede this is a long term effort with no results guaranteed.

We have to get out of there. I never thought I'd see another Viet Nam in my lifetime. :(