My take on the 2010 US Senate races state by state

[WI_DEM]

Safe Democratic: HA, MD, NY (Schumer), Vermont
Likely Democratic: OR, WA, NY (Gilldenbrand), CT
Leans Democratic: WI, CA

Safe GOP: Alabama, Alaska, Idaho, KS, OK, SC, SD, UT
Likely GOP: Arkansas, GA, LA, IA, ND
Leans GOP: AZ (if McCain loses primary I think this becomes toss-up), IN, DE

Toss-up: CO, NV, PA, KY, MO, NH, OH, NC, IL, FL,

As of right now I predict GOP pick-ups in Arkansas, North Dakota, Indiana, Delaware
As of right now I predict Democratic pick-ups in zero states.

Net gain for GOP +4

The following seats I consider toss-ups (10) NV, PA, CO, KY, MO, NH, OH, NC, IL, FL

Interestingly of those ten seats I consider toss-ups SIX are currently held by GOP SENATORS (KY, MO, NH, OH, NC, FL) and FOUR by DEMOCRATS (NV, PA, CO, & IL).

Here are recent polls for those ten states:
Colorado: Norton (R) 47% Bennet (D) 44% SUSA
Nevada: Angle (R) 44% Reid (D) 41% Mason/Dixon (note Reid was behind by double digits prior to this)
Pennsylvania: Sestak (D) 41% Toomey (R) 41% PPP
Kentucky: Paul (R) 51% Conway (D) 45% SUSA
Missouri: Blunt (R) 45% Carnahan (D) 44% Rasmussen (only recent poll I could find)
New Hampshire: I couldn't find a recent poll.
Ohio: Fisher (D) 43% Portman (R) 43% Rasmussen & Fisher 47% Portman 46% Univ of Cincinnatti Poll
North Carolina: Burr (R): 46% Marshall (D) 39% PPP
Illinois: Giannoulias (D) 31% Kirk (R) 30% PPP
Florida: Crist (I): 42% Rubio (R): 31% Meek (D) 14% FL Chamber of Commerce Poll/ 37-33-17-Quinnipiac Poll.

Democratic prospects have brightened in Nevada due to Angle's outrageous statements and Harry Reid is smart enough to take advantage of this gift. He will also have a huge war chest. In Pennsylvania, Dems probably helped themselves by nominating Sestak instead of Specter. In North Carolina, PPP says this state is looking more and more like the last election where Elizabeth Dole was defeated. Florida: Crist has a strong possibility of winning over both the Dem and GOP candidates and then the ? is which side of the Senate would Crist caucus with (I think he has no choice but to go with the Dems given his recent actions).

Conclusions: The GOP need to pick up 10-seats to win back the US Senate. I can see where they will have a net gain of four already. But even if they won every one of the states I list as "toss-up"--which is doubtful--they would have only a 8-seat gain--leaving them 2-short of the majority. If I were a betting man I'd say of the ten toss-up's this is how I would call them as of today:
CO: Norton--GOP pick up
NV: Reid--Dems retain
PA: Sestak--Dems retain
KY: Paul--GOP retain
MO: Blunt--GOP retain
NH: Ayotte--GOP retain
OH: Fisher--Dem pickup
NC: Marshall--Dem pickup
IL: Giannoulias--Dem retain (Kirk has been self-destroying himself in recent weeks)
FL: Crist--Independent wins

As of right now I believe the GOP will gain 3-5 seats overall in the Senate, well short of taking control. I also believe that Crist will win in FL, and will caucus with the Dems. If the GOP does win the senate it will only come by a national Dem collapse which would also take out such Dem senators as Boxer in CA and Feingold in WI--as of now I don't see that happening.

[rockymountaindem]

1. In Colorado, Norton is looking like she won't win her primary at the moment

She is taking some major hits from outsider candidate Buck, who probably won't win in the general if he wins the primary. There have been some polls showing him ahead in the Rep. primary by a large margin.

Edit:
Here's a link to the poll http://www.9news.com/news/article.aspx?storyid=141502&catid=339

[WI_DEM]

2. that is certainly good news.

[zipplewrath]

3. Not so sure about Crist

I suspect he, and Arnold, will try to take control of the "new" GOP.

[WI_DEM]

4. Well, he could be part of a minority in the US Senate in which most of its members

will despise him for what he's doing to Rubio and his stands on gay rights, teachers, environment, stem-cells, etc or he could go with the majority in the senate where he would likely land a good committee assignments. Once elected, I wouldn't be surprised to see Crist become a democrat and position himself for the 2012 Presidential nomination.

[zipplewrath]

5. Okay, interesting thought

That is a very Crist like strategy, I'll give ya that. I think you meant 2016 though.

[WI_DEM]

7. Oh, yes--definitely 2016.

[Lochloosa]

9. I think Crist knows there will never be a "new" GOP. IMHO They have gone over the edge forever.

[zipplewrath]

10. Forever is a long time

I actually think the elections this fall may be the end of the freaky fringe. I don't really expect most of these tea baggers to win and the GOP is going to notice. They've had to "expell" the birchers in the past. I suspect they'll do the same with the birthers and baggers this time 'round.

And really, all the better for the left. With the GOP moving this far right, it leaves way to much room over there for democrats to call themselves "centrist".

[Robbins]

6. Senate 2010 My take

Washington State-Likely Democratic Retain
Oregon,California-Safe Democratic Retain
Nevada-Tossup(possibly slight lean Democratic retain)
arizona-Safe Republican Retain(becomes lean Republican Retain if Mccain loses primary)
ND-Safe Republican Pickup
Colorado-Tossup
Wisconsion-Lean Democratic Retain
Iowa-Safe Republican Retain
Missouri-Tossup
Illinois-Tossup(Possibly slight lean Democratic Retain)
Indiana-Lean Republicn Pickup
PA-Leans Democratic
Ohio-Tossup
New York-Safe Democratic Retain
CT-Safe Democratic Retain
Delaware-Lean Republican Pickup
NH-Tossup(possably lean Republican Retain)
NC-Tossup
Kentuckey-Tossup
Arkansas-Safe Republican Pickup
Florida-Lean Indepnedent Pickup

Things are not doom and gloom.The tossups are not guranteed to break Republican.This Is june many things can change.I still feel
better about Democrats than I did early In the year.

[WI_DEM]

8. I definitely do too. I actually worry more about the house than the Senate

but even there I think the Dems will come out holding a narrow house majority.