Before people begin freaking out about Obama's 45% approval rating--look at Reagan in 82-83

[WI_DEM]

04/15/1983 04/18/1983 40 49 10
03/11/1983 03/14/1983 40 49 10
01/28/1983 01/31/1983 35 56 8
01/21/1983 01/24/1983 37 52 9
01/11/1983 01/11/1983 36 54 9
12/10/1982 12/13/1982 41 50 8
11/19/1982 11/22/1982 43 46 9
11/05/1982 11/08/1982 42 47 10
10/15/1982 10/18/1982 41 47 10
09/17/1982 09/20/1982 42 47 9
08/24/1982 08/24/1982 41 45 12
08/13/1982 08/16/1982 40 48 10
07/30/1982 08/02/1982 40 46 12
07/23/1982 07/26/1982 42 46 11
06/25/1982 06/28/1982 44 45 10
06/11/1982 06/14/1982 44 45 9
05/14/1982 05/17/1982 44 44 10
04/30/1982 05/03/1982 44 45 9
04/23/1982 04/26/1982 43 47 9
04/02/1982 04/05/1982 45 46 8
03/12/1982 03/15/1982 46 44 9
02/05/1982 02/08/1982 46 43 10
01/22/1982 01/25/1982 47 41 11
01/05/1982 01/05/1982 49 39 11
12/11/1981 12/14/1981 48 41 10

What this mean is that Dems may have a tough November ahead (but I'm not convinced dems will lose the house and senate) but it is not a prediction of what will happen in '12--Reagan despite his approval ratings for '82 and much of '83 won 59% of the vote in a landslide in November, 1984.

[Jennicut]

1. Some of these polls are all over the place. ARG (?) on pollster.com

has him at 41% approval but Rasmussen of all polls has him at 48% for the last two days. CNN was at 50%. I suppose it bounces around 45 to 50% depending on how people feel that day. We Americans seem to be a fickle bunch.

[napi21]

2. I'm not as much worried about Obama as I am about the Dems in Nov.

It really knocked my knees out from under me last night when I heard one of the Pubs top prioities is to take ovr congress & repeal Health Care & CUT TAXES! I haven't forgotten how insane these Pubs are and how I really suffered for EIGHT LONG YEARS, and I don't think my brain can tolerate Pub rule again!

[WI_DEM]

3. Well they won't be able to repeal health care--dems could fillibuster it and Obama could veto it.

We will lose seats that is a given. But I don't think we will lose the senate. Reid is looking stronger in Nevada. I think we improved our chances to hold PA with Stupak. Most of our incumbants should win. We have some fair opportunities for GOP seats in KY, MO, OH and NC. Also if Crist wins in FL, I think he will caucus with Dems. As for the house it's 50-50, but if I were a betting man I'd guess we will hold it with a 5 or 6 seat majority and hope to make some good gains back in a more favorable year as I think 2012 will be.

[impik]

4. Oh, a good portion here is far from freaking out. They actually love this

[depakid]

5. Reagan was FAR from the mainstream and his policies exacerbated a struggling economy

turning it into the most severe turndown (at the time) since the Great Depression.

Not the most apt comparison (to say the least).

[WI_DEM]

11. Actually if you google you will find that many others do feel it is an apt comparison

including Gallup. If Reagan isn't good enough for you look up Clinton's approval ratings and you'll find they were comparable to Obama's or even a little worse. Point is both Reagan and Clinton went on to easy re-elections despite struggling approval ratings in the second and third years of their presidencies.

[karynnj]

6. Not to mention the polling on this ended on the 21st.

I think that the very quick, politically successful action taken on the McChrystal mess will help. The BP mess and the economy both had just had more bad news.

[Lasher]

7. Approval of Reagan and Clinton tracked about the same throughout their 8 years.

Until Iran/Contra, that is. From that time on Saint Ronnie's numbers were lower than Clinton's turned out to be.



http://pollkatz.homestead.com/

[Wickerman]

8. Way to ruin a perfectly good freakout

4,3,2,1 yep, here comes another one. We at DU, if anything, can find something to spaz on.

[Tarheel_Dem]

9. Not freaking out. I saw candidate Obama's numbers rise & fall, during..

the primaries & the GE, and witnessed the routine freakouts by DU & the punditry, and was never concerned. And, I'm not concerned now. Job approval rises & falls. Shit happens.

[elocs]

10. The trouble with comparisons is that you can always find somebody worse, or better.

Both Republicans or Democrats can and do play that game.

[WI_DEM]

13. true, but historically the second year of a presidency does take a hit on approval ratings

The only significant recent ocassion where that wasn't the case was Bush II but that was only because of 9/11 fervor--but even his ratings had come down from their post 9/11 highs somewhat.

[elocs]

15. Much in the same way that historically the party in power loses Congressional seats

in an off-year election. So for the Democrats to lose some seats this year would not be unusual.

I think the problem with Obama is that expectations for him were so high, unrealistically so, especially from his strongest supporters. I think they projected a lot of their hopes onto him even when they were things that he had never promised to do. Then he set the bar so high by starting out with such good approval ratings that there was no way he could maintain them.

[Robert DAH Bruce]

12. I'm not freaking out

If it's 45% on Nov 5 2012, then I might consider it.

[joe black]

14. I'm not freaking out.

He should take a look and realize that most Americans don't like his policies. Health care, education, social security, jobs , etc. going down the drain on his watch. I doubt most Americans like never ending war.