AR, CA, GA, IA, ME, NJ, NV, SC, SD & VA Primary Preview

[Joanne98]

We've got an epic night of liveblogging on tap tomorrow night. Here's our preview of the races that you need to watch:
Arkansas:


AR-Sen (D): There's not a whole lot more that need be said about this race between Lt. Gov. Bill Halter and Sen. Blanche Lincoln. Before election day, it looked like Lincoln might win outright in the first round, but she wound up performing poorly, edging Halter just 45-43. Meanwhile third-wheel conservaweirdo D.C. Morrison pulled a surprisingly impressive 13%. Will his voters go to Lincoln as the candidate further to the right? Go to Halter as the anti-Lincoln vote? Or just stay home? It's impossible to say, but we'll have our answers soon enough. Historically, incumbents running for statewide office who only narrowly lead in the first round tend to fare poorly in runoffs, so it looks like Halter's in the driver's seat. But this one could be very close yet again. (D)

AR-01 (D): Yikes. This race pits conservative Democrat Chad Causey against really, really conservative Democrat Tim Wooldridge. (Wooldridge once proposed legislation to bring back public hanging, for starters.) Causey, a former chief-of-staff to retiring Rep. Marion Berry, trailed Wooldridge, a former state senator, 38-27 in the first round. But he seems to have consolidated a lot of support since then, scoring endorsements from several also-rans as well as Bill Clinton. Wooldridge released an internal poll last week showing him up 48-24, but the polling memo was oddly framed as an attack on Causey, which doesn't exactly project confidence. Causey hasn't released any new polling, but he claims a pre-runoff poll of his own showed him trailing 31-5, so he's spinning this as a 27% surge for him, but just a 7% increase for Wooldridge. (D)

AR-02 (D): The contours of this runoff differ quite a bit from AR-01. Here, state House Speaker Robbie Wills faces off against state Senate Majority Leader Joyce Elliott, who led 40-28 after the first round. Since then, things have gotten very negative. Wills, an insider's insider who is close to Gov. Mike Beebe, has attacked Elliott - who just so happens to be both black and a woman - as too liberal for the district. Some Elliott supporters have decried Wills's arguments about "electability" as racially motivated, and she's hit Wills with some negative ads herself. Both candidates have picked up support from also-rans, and in the absence of any polls, we can only say that it's anyone's race. (D)

Continued>>>>
http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/7036/ar-ca-ga-ia-me-nj-nv-sc-sd-va-primary-preview

[napi21]

1. DAMN! I didn't realize there were that many races tomorrow!

I took the time to go through ever one, and it's amazing how many candidates are tarnished by one thing or another. Itwill be fun to see what happens.

[Hawkeye-X]

2. Somehow the Harman vs Winograd battle isn't even on the radar

:mutter:

[Joanne98]

4. Yeah it is

CA-36 (D): One of Tuesday's most interesting primaries is in the 36th in southern L.A. County suburbs, one of the bluest districts in the country to be represented by a Blue Dog. Rep. Jane Harman is not one of the worst Blue Dogs, but her occasional high-profile moments of hawkishness or corporatism have raised the ire of many liberal activists who consider her a bad fit for this district. Flying the liberal flag in the primary is Marcy Winograd, who also launched a 2006 challenge against Harman but didn't break 40% -- but that was before Harman's strange role in a scandal last year involving an NSA wiretap and Israeli intelligence. Internal polling seems to point to another Harman victory. (C)

[tabbycat31]

3. my district is not on the radar

It's a very popular Democratic congressman being challenged by either a Michele Bachmann teabagger or a hedge fund billionaire's wife (who does not live in the district thus cannot vote for herself). Mrs. Hedge Fund is now putting the teabagger (don't tread on me) flag on her signs.

Can't wait to see the GOP signs come down tomorrow.

[Joanne98]

5. You better hope the hedge fund wife wins cause she'll be easy to squash.

[tabbycat31]

6. the hedge fund wife is the frontrunner

and everyone is pulling for her to lose.

Although her pockets are deep she does have weaknesses. First of all she's associated with Wall Street (in a state that last year ousted a Wall Street CEO governor) and second of all she does not live in the district. She claims that my Congressman is out of touch (he goes back home every weekend and attends every event in the district) but how in touch with the average New Jerseyan is a hedge fund wife?


I don't think the teabagger (nickname Michele Bachmann 2.0) will be as well funded as the hedge fund wife.

[Arkana]

7. Only a couple interesting races.

Halter v. Lincoln and Winograd v. Harman.