Rasmussen MO-Senate: Blunt 45%, Carnahan 44%

[KingFlorez]

Not sure if this was already posted.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/missouri/election_2010_missouri_senate

Republican Congressman Roy Blunt and Democrat Robin Carnahan are now running neck-and-neck in Missouri’s contest for the U.S. Senate.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Show Me State finds Blunt with 45% support to Carnahan’s 44%. Four percent (4%) like some other candidate in the race, and six percent (6%) are undecided.

This marks a tightening of the race from recent months. This is the weakest showing for Blunt since last September.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

1. Translated into reality:

Carnahan is ahead by 9%

[4lbs]

2. If a Democratic politician is essentially tied (within MOE) in a Repuke-leaning poll, then yeah, the

reality is that he is likely slightly ahead.

[StevieM]

7. I think you're misunderstanding Rasmussen. It's not just a matter of his polls leaning Republican--

his polls just aren't truthful. When a different GOP firm--or a Democratic firm for that matter--puts out a poll, you might suspect that little biases here and there have affected the numbers in a slight direction and don't reflect that most accurate status of the race at the moment.

Rasmussen's numbers are way off. He's just not a real pollster anymore. He uses methods deliberately designed to benefit the GOP candidate and develop a narrative of impending defeat for the Democrat, in an effort to develop a broader narrative, both locally and nationally.

Rasmussen, along with the Massachusetts anomaly, have fed this narrative of the Dems heading for disaster. The media just ignores Democratic victories in GOP House districts in Upstate NY, or in Murtha's old PA district.

Steve

[Dr Morbius]

3. I don't put a lot of stock in polls.

But when I do pay attention to polls, I try to subtract four or five percent from the Democrat in the race to get an idea how the race will end up. The reason for this is, if it's an honest poll and accurately reflects the opinion of the population, probably four or five percent of the Democrats will be denied their vote, either through restrictions, registrations denied, wrong polling place and votes not counted. I heard that some six million voters tried and were unable to vote in 2008; who wants to bet me that the majority of them weren't planning to vote for Barack Obama? This 6 million, compared to the 125 million whose votes for Obama and McCain were counted, is in that 4-5% range.

So if a Democrat gets above a 5% lead, I start thinking it's gonna happen. Anything less, the cheating Republicans can take away. You see?

Now, none of this has any bearing on the race between Blunt and Carnahan. I see trending for Ms Carnahan, and trends are good. But it's a Rasmussen polls, and I put considerably less stock in their polls than pretty much anyone else.

[Jennicut]

4. But I thought Dems were going to get killed in the midterms...

Looks like in the Senate at the very least, things are looking a bit more up for the Dems.

[WeDidIt]

5. Rasmussen is in "setting the narrative" mode with this race

so Carnahan must lead by double digits.

for more information read this:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/5/28/870893/-Rasmussens-mid-course-corrections

[Cha]

6. This has changed! Robin Carnahan is climbing!

:bounce: