PA-12: Burns Leads Critz by 1 Point in Final PPP Poll

[ccharles000]

Public Policy Polling (5/15-16, likely voters, 4/17-18 in parens):

Mark Critz (D): 47 (41)
Tim Burns (R): 48 (44)
Undecided: 6 (15)
(MoE: ±3.4%)

More, from Jensen:

If Burns does pull out the victory on Tuesday night it will be more because of a continuing gap in interest between Democratic and Republican voters in the off year election than anything else. Critz is actually winning over more McCain voters (14%) than Burns is Obama voters (12%). This race is not an example of people who voted for Obama who are now unhappy with him and voting Republican. But those planning to vote on Tuesday report having voted for John McCain by 5 points in 2008, compared to his actual 1 point victory in the district. And among voters who say they're 'very excited' to vote in this election, Burns has a 60-38 lead.

Two recent polls have given Critz a slight lead. It looks like we're heading for a photo finish here, sports fans.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/6903/pa12-burns-leads-critz-by-1-point-in-final-ppp-poll

[femmocrat]

1. I live in neighboring district and if I had to vote for either of them I would ...

write in "Mickey Mouse"! I can't stand to see one more ad by either one of them! They have both run negative, off-putting campaigns, IMO. I would have preferred just about any of the people who dropped out before Mrs. Murtha hand-picked Critz.

[Hippo_Tron]

2. I hate to say it, but this is a pretty good bellwether for November

Close district and no incumbent (which is important because we're seeing a lot of Dem retirements these days). If it's a squeaker either way then I don't think it says a whole lot. But if Burns wins by a decent sized margin then I think we'd be in serious trouble if the election were held tomorrow.