No current GOP front runner can beat Obama in 2012.

[dumpdabaggers]

Presidential elections are far different animals than the off year elections. Turn out in presidential years is WAY higher. That is why the dems got slaughtered in 1994 but Clinton won easy re election in 1996. In act, if the GOP takes Congress, Obama's re election will be easier. If they are in the majority they will have to work with Obama. They will be unable to just say NO.

On the front row I see no Repblican that can beat him. Palin would lose in a Mcgovern, Goldwater sized landslide. Tim Pawlenty, bring him on! Romney is becomming a bigger joke by the day. Newt Gingrich? LOL.Rick Santorium? Hayley BarbourV

The only two that could be tough in my view are Senator John Thune, of North Dakota, and Mitch Daniels, of Indiana. They are hard right wingers but can sound moderate. The biggest threat of all would have been former Utah governor John Huntsman. Obama was smart, he hired him!

All of these righties who believe Obama will be an easy out in 2012 do not understand how elections work, or the advantage a sitting president has. I could have won big money off of my Republican friends after 1994 betting Clintom would be re elected.

[backscatter712]

1. Obama's in damned good shape for 2012.

He's lost some popularity, but still in the 50% neighborhood - much better than a lot of presidents.

He's got no real scandals. Policy disagreements with a lot of people, including Democrats, but no scandals. The best his enemies could come up with is nonsense like birtherism, which will do little more than throw red meat at the teabagging GOP base, but has no credibility with the vast majority of people.

In 2012, the economy will be a hell of a lot better than it is today, and hopefully we'll be out of Iraq, and hopefully be working our way out of Afghanistan.

And yeah, nobody in the GOP is really much good as a candidate. Romney's the most dangerous candidate they've got, but the fundies won't accept him because he's Mormon. Santorum, Barbour, Gingrich don't stand a chance - they'll get torn to pieces. Palin's got enough popularity with the teabaggers to have a chance at the nomination, but everyone in the country except the teabaggers knows she's an idiot, and she'll get eaten for breakfast.

[TlalocW]

4. The thing about Romney being a Mormon

If he does get the nomination, hold on to something to withstand the gale force winds of the GOP's top name religious nuts doing a 180 and suddenly saying that Mormonism is just another branch of Christianity. I agree that a lot of fundies won't support him because everyone from the preacher from the Baptist church in the small backwater town down south to Jerry Falwell and other big names have been calling Mormonism an un-Christian sect for years, but the big names are going to change their tune if it means defeating Barack.

TlalocW

[customerserviceguy]

6. You're dreaming

if you think either thing will happen. Mormon missionaries are poaching the flock from all of the fundie strongholds in America, they will do nothing that helps give them another talking point at somebody's front door.

Romney simply will not get the nomination, period. He had his very best shot at it in 2008, he was well organized in Iowa, and he was banking on name familiarity in New Hampshire, since the Boston media markets are what they absorb in southern NH. If he couldn't do it then, with a wide open field, he sure won't be able to do it now.

[golddigger]

2. Don't underestimate the stupidity

of the American people.

[Vincardog]

3. The uber rich do not need a republican when they have Obama doing their work for them.

[Cha]

7. Your cheap shots need some work..

fucking polyester.

[ima_sinnic]

8. yes, why upset the apple cart now? 2016 is the one to watch.

--who they will install then is anybody's guess.

that is, if we haven't been reduced to a kind of Mad Max scenario, with economic collapse, dead oceans, food skyrocketing through the roof after soil is ruined by Monsanto and bees have died off, and mutinous, cutthroat baggers and secessionists running amok.

[Vincardog]

29. The time to avert those calamities is NOW. Where is the LEADERSHIP?

[customerserviceguy]

5. I was of the opinion that Caribou Barbie had a shot

until she endorsed Carly Fiorina this last week. A lot of Rethugs who wondered if she really was smart enough to be the candidate just got the answer to that question.

[polichick]

9. Let's see if a progressive challenges him for the nomination...

It would be easy to do the ads - Firedoglake's new offshore drilling ad would be a start.

[dumpdabaggers]

12. No "progressive" will challenge Obama.

Besides that, it is impossible to take the nomination away from a sitting president. He starts off with about 1,200 delegates in the bag. All primary challenges do is assure that the sitting president loses in November. Just ask Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and old man Bush.

[WeDidIt]

25. Any so-called progressive who attempts to challenge Obama

will see their political career ended.

Guaranteed.

Nobody is that stupid if they made it far enough along in politics to be in a position to attempt such a thing.

You might see a Mike Gravel come out, though. That would be good for some comedy relief. Or Dennis Kucinich could pull a stunt, which would be even more comedic.

[dionysus]

32. who would you choose to make a fool ofthemselves and commit career suicide? the kooch? mckinney?

:rofl:

[Ter]

10. That's not why

Clinton would have lost if he was running in 1994. Many things happened over the next two years to give him a second term.

[dumpdabaggers]

11. Off year elections are so different.

Also, Bob Dull as an opponent made Clinton's life easy.

[Ter]

47. Yup

Plus Newt and his tirades hurt Republicans, as did anti-government Timothy McVeigh. As bad as Dole was, I'd probably take him over other Republican nominees for President, like both Bush's and McSame. :)

[saltpoint]

13. George Pataki. He's the dark horse wild card for the GOP.

He's going to take this country by storm, I tell you.

Reportedly, he makes David Axlerod whimper at the very mention of his name.

GEORGE PATAKI -- ELECTORAL JUGGERNAUT!

[leftynyc]

44. Seriously?

The pro choice, pro gay rights, marched in the gay pride parade every year he was governor? That George Pataki? I don't think so.

[saltpoint]

49. Hi, leftynyc. No, I'm joshin' my way through the back 40.

Pataki has huge ambitions but I don't think he has a prayer in hell in the GOP nomination race.

[Sebastian Doyle]

14. Here is the Republican that can win 2012

The more right wing appointments made by, and more right wing policies instituted by Obama, and he is driving away the very people who gave him an electoral landslide in 2008.

It doesn't matter how ridiculous the Repuke candidate is. It only matters if the turnout is enough to overcome the fraud. And Obama is sabotaging that himself.

[dumpdabaggers]

16. Not really. Elections are won by who wins over the middle.

Those of us on the left, and those on the right, like to believe we are why our presidential candidate wins. While we put in most of the blood, sweat and tears, the winner is whoever win over the independent middle. That has always been the case.

[Sebastian Doyle]

20. That is the bullshit mythology that allows DLC mediocrity to continue to destroy this party.

Those 10% of mentally instable fuckwits who can't honestly tell the difference between FDR and Reagan, are nothing compared to the millions who simply stopped showing up to vote because neither party is doing a damn thing for the working class.

Get those people to show up, and the mushy middle morons can return to their well deserved irrelevance.

[dumpdabaggers]

34. You can't win with just the base. You need a lesson in election reality.

I guess you remember President Goldwater, President McGovern, and President Dukakis?

Reagan won because he won over Reagan Democrats." These are the blue collar union types who like their guns. They will not support a real lefty.

I don't like this reality, but it is what it is. Elections are decided by the who the people in the middle class burbs are most comfortable with on pocket book issues.

Great guys like Paul Wellstone, Dennis Jucinich, and Jesse Jackson, would lose 49 states.

20 percent are "Liberals" in America, 40 percent are "conservative" and 60 percent are in the middle.

Why do you think the DLC was started? People like Bill Clinton, Sam Nunn, and others got tired of seeing "Liberal Democrats" getting spanked in presidential elections. They rigged the nominating process so there would be no more Dukakis'.

[depakid]

22. Wrong- elections are won by those who best organize and energize their consituencies

And THAT has always been the case.

[mikekohr]

23. Organization, Energy, AND winning the middle determines

the race for the White House. President Obama will win in 2012 by a large margin regardless of who the Republican nominee is because he hits on all three points.

Democrats have the bigger tent, but we allow ourselves to get outhustled by a determined minority, especially in off year elections. And that is what the Tea Party movement is: a drive to up the level of vitriol, fan the flames of hatred and resentment, and appeal to entitlement and privilidge, to drive up their base turn out.

If we get beat in November it is our own fault.

mike kohr

[depakid]

24. Nope- chasing the ephemeral center is a losing strategy

because you will at best fail to motivate your base- which account for more voters than you'll get from the right (despite the pandering) and it will also degrade volunteer efforts and enthusiasm, which Democrats far more than Republicans require to win elections.

At worse, you'll create a political vacuum that someone else (or some other party) will end up filling.

Then of course, there are intangibles- or that element that might be known as luck.

[dumpdabaggers]

43. DLC got prominent because of "President Michael Dukakis"

People like Bill Clinton got tired of seeing "Progressives" getting their asses handed to them.

Do not get me wrong, I voted for Dukakis. Still, that election was a total humilation for the Democrats. Notice that the Dems have not been spanked like that again.

The hard reality is that the people we really like can not win the presidency.We have two choices, vote for the Dem and get 40 percent of what we want, or vote for Nader types and help elect Republican's and get nothing.

Depressing isn't itV

[ShortnFiery]

45. What worked in the past, is not viable in today's politics. People see the disgusting CENTER as it

really is ... status quo support of Corporate Ownership of the USA.

If we MUST relent to fascism, might as well give it to the people who have perfected authoritarianism: the republicans?

Thanks for NOTHING in the 21st Century DLC/Blue Dogs/New Democrats. That is, you've burned out your ideology - the people have become wiser than you think.

[Vincardog]

30. Bingo

[Dr Morbius]

15. Methinks you're counting chickens before the eggs of their parents have been hatched.

Two weeks is a long time in politics, two months an eternity. Two years? A million things can happen. More than a million things will happen, in fact, but not all will be relevant. I'm inclined to believe that right now, the GOP has nobody who can defeat The Man. But November 2012 is too far ahead to see.

[dumpdabaggers]

18. You are correct. My point is simply

They have no one currently who would beat him. At least not on the main roster.

[ZombieHorde]

17. Recommended, but 2012 is a long time from now. nt

[BluegrassDem]

19. Obama will have $1 BILLION in his campaign war chest

No fucking way any Repug beats that.

[quakerboy]

21. Citizens united

If the corporations are motivated to beat that, they will, without breaking a sweat. If they don't, they wont. Its that simple.

[Democat]

26. If the tea party still exists in 2012 they will be great comedy!

Only a moderate (or someone like Bush who is good at pretending to be moderate) has any chances at the presidency, so the tea baggers would have to fall in line behind someone like Romney. That would be funny to watch after everything they've been saying for the last few months.

[totodeinhere]

27. Nothing is certain in politics. And in political terms, 2012 is still...

light years away. Too much might happen between now and then that could influence the election one way or the other. It is just impossible for you to make such a blanket prediction at this point in time. Is Obama a favorite to win reelection? Yes he is. Is he a certainty? No he is not.

[besdayz]

28. a

romney will never get the evangelical right. meaning he wont get out of the primaries. if he tries, he will have to do some major "flip-flopping" thus dooming him for the general. he is inherently flawed.

as usual the repugs will look to the past to lead us into the future...and will get spanked as the party of no, party of old white men, party of no ideas, party of corporations, bankers, birthers, militia men, anarchists, and bigots.
but the 90s these forces coalesced in much the same manner and still clinton destroyed them in 96. and that was when the repugs had much more power.a

you can also expect a huge latino landslide in area of 90/10 to democrats. about 45 mill latinos in the country. that's 1/7 of the voting public.

[ShortnFiery]

31. Hold onto that thought.

Pride goeth before the fall?

[dionysus]

33. despite your burning desire for him to loose, ain't gonna happen.

CRUISE MISSLES!1!1!

[ShortnFiery]

35. You know, it's sad that we mostly share the same values.

However, in your avid desire to have it all the corporate way, you alienate those who honestly love this Country and upholding The Bill of Rights.

What will occur is complete darkness. Why? It's pinko bleeding-heart liberals like myself who would willingly HELP YOU and President Obama. But you shun us and as a consequence, many of us will stay home in November.

When the right wing takes over our nation, don't blame us, blame yourselves for being too comfortable with the corporate world.

[dionysus]

37. wait a minute. you want obama to lose but it's going to be MY fault when the republicans take over?

seriously?

[ShortnFiery]

39. I don't want Obama to lose. I want President Obama to act like a Democrat.

That is, upholding the Bill of Rights by reascending the Patriot Act and bringing these senseless occupations to an end.

However, the recent request by his AG is not a hopeful sign.

If Obama stays on the same path toward financial fascism, he will lose. Why? People prefer a true Authoritarian President (republican) if that is the path that the country is going to take.

Why re-elect President Obama when we could go all the way and have an openly warmongering President?

Either President Obama embraces THE BEST of our Nation: Our Civil Rights - OR he will lose to a knuckle dragging Authoritarian Republican.

[greencharlie]

36. and there's NO WAY Teddy's seat will EVER be held by a Pub. nt

[old mark]

46. ...and the Republican party will be the PERMANENT MAJORITY

from the 1990's onward....Just ask Newt !!!


mark

[Proud Liberal Dem]

38. I don't think anybody can beat him in 2012

It is definitely too early to tell but I can't see Obama fumbling so badly over the next year and a half that would make it likely that he will be a one-term President (although even if he were, he'd have already accomplished a LOT). The latter part of last year certainly wasn't particularly good for him and the Republican obstructionist machine seemed to be on a roll- keeping HCR bottled up in endless (and fruitless negotiations) and the "teabaggers" fired up and helping get Scott Brown elected in Massachusetts but President Obama and the Democrats have rebounded nicely since the beginning of this year, particularly since HCR finally went through despite solid Republican obstructionism and everything else they and their corporate mediawhores were able to throw at it. 2010 is not looking quite as bad for us as we all once feared. If things continue to improve, particularly in terms of the economy through 2012 and Obama continues to get his legislative agenda through Congress, what exactly will Republicans be able to run on? Repealing HCR (which is already starting to have some positive effects)? Sure.
:eyes: :rofl:

[grantcart]

40. Based on the past 50 years Daniels has the best chance of being the nominee

He would be crushed in a debate with the President.

He would be willing to do it in order to become the likely nominee in 2016 when the Republicans will have their first real chance at President.

[greencharlie]

41. Likely to be someone LIKE Thune.

it isn't going to be any of the "front runners"... they'll pick a "nice hair", tall handsome-ish white guy.

And if the economy still sucks (UE @ 8%+) then Obama loses pretty much no matter WHO the Pub is.

[besdayz]

42. the common

argument by the go-along unconditional support types is that at least obama is not right wing and if you don't vote for him you'll get worse. but i think this misses the key point that when you build someone's hope up that things may actually change for the better and you don't deliver, hardly even try, in fact regress, those people check out. disillusioned, gone, no longer care, tune out.

so to appeal to them on prospective right wing take over if they stay home at election time is ineffectual, besides the point, falls on deaf ears. they don't care what happens if a guy like obama with both houses and 59 senators cant deliver. they have left the building already and you drove them out


granted we give him leeway given the way he has to defend himself as a human being unlike any other executive, his birth, americanism, etc. but we also feel he gets drawn into that vitriole too often despite his promises. i get you have to hit back. but hit back once with a haymaker knockout blow and don't keep using this jab punches throughout your presidency; its beneath him.

[Dr Morbius]

48. Things HAVE changed for the better.

But were so damn awful to start with that almost any progress will seem inadequate.

President Obama has already signed a half-dozen important changes into law, starting with Lilly Ledbetter and most recently with some long-overdue help for veterans' needs. FEMA is starting to act like an effective federal agency again. Student loans were a complete ripoff under Bush; they're now lower interest and not profit-driven. The economy is rebounding, albeit slowly, and the current job creation numbers would make the previous administration jealous. The ball is rolling, again albeit slowly, on ending DADT. Things ARE getting better.

As to the question of whether the President has adequately delivered on his campaign promises or not, that's a valid question and I don't seek to address it. But the claim that things are not changing for the better seems a ridiculous one to me, and I can't just let it stand without comment.

[troubledamerican]

50. Hillary Clinton will be the nominee. There will be NO electoral winner. Congress will pick her.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Election_of_1824

Hillary's opponent, Sarah Palin, will be crowned with sympathy by the media as "President In Exile" when the Democratic House of Representatives chooses Hillary president, because there will be so many candidates that no candidate will receive the minimum number of required electoral votes (270).

The last day of the Republic will be April 4, 2015, when two alleged USAF "Al Qaeda" sympathizers crash into the Capitol Dome during a GOP walkout/emergency session of Congress in which the entire national Democratic Party will be eliminated in one blow.

At midnight, Sarah Palin will be sworn-in on the steps of the Lincoln Memorial by Chief Justice John Roberts. There will be a purge of the military & intelligence agencies. There will be roundups and National Stadium will be used as a torture/execution center, just like Chile September 11 1973 where their "National Stadium" was used as a torture/execution center. The American Tianenmen Square protests & massacre will not happen until July 17. Palin/Giuliani/Cheney/Hayden/Myers will attack Venezuela, Bolivia & Ecuador on July 30. On October 13, the U.S. will be destroyed in a pre-emptive strike by China & Russia.