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HughMoran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-23-10 09:32 AM
Original message
New-home sales see biggest jump in 47 years
Sales surge 27 percent, the strongest month since July

updated 11 minutes ago

WASHINGTON - Sales of new homes surged 27 percent last month, bouncing off the previous month's record low and blowing past expectations as better weather and government incentives boosted sales.

The Commerce Department said Friday that new-home sales rose in March to a seasonally adjusted annual sales pace of 411,000. It was the strongest month since last July and the biggest monthly increase in 47 years.

Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters had expected a sales pace of 330,000. February's results were revised upward to 324,000, but remained an all-time low. Sales had been especially weak over the winter, partly due to bad weather in much of the country.

The median sales price was $214,000, up more than 4 percent from a year earlier but down more than 3 percent from February.

...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/36735173/ns/business-real_estate/

_____________________________________________________________

Any good news economically is good news for Obama and the Democrats.
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Wickerman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-23-10 09:34 AM
Response to Original message
1. I've seen new construction going on in my area
And already in my small town we are up X2 on new home permits from 2009. Yep, two new homes thus far in '10 as opposed to 0 in 2009.
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karynnj Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-23-10 12:17 PM
Response to Reply #1
15. Actually that is infinity times
:)
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HughMoran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-23-10 09:40 AM
Response to Original message
2. Was that unrec for me or do you dislike good news?
Inquiring minds want to know :D
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Dappleganger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-23-10 10:24 AM
Response to Reply #2
5. Could be someone living in Foreclosure City.
But I rec for good news, anywhere no matter how bad things are where we live.
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girl gone mad Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-23-10 07:33 PM
Response to Reply #2
20. I took you off of ignore just so I could unrec because this amounts to dishonest propaganda.
and for anyone who likes their news sans vapid political spin:

Home Sales: Distressing Gap
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/04/home-sales-distressing-gap.html

First a comment on the seasonal adjustment ... on a Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) basis, the Census Bureau reported there were 38,000 new homes sold in March. That is up from 31,000 in March 2009.

Some (or all) of the increase was due to a one time event - the tax credit that expires in April. The Census Bureau doesn't know the number of homes sold due to the tax credit, so they report the Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) assuming this is the underlying rate of sales. It isn't.

The April new home sales headline number will be distorted too, but the key is the actual underlying sales rate is much lower.

The following graph shows existing home sales (left axis) and new home sales (right axis) through March.



http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/04/home-sales-distressing-gap.html">more...

Even Good Housing Numbers Aren't Adding Up Right
http://www.cnbc.com/id/36719438

So first time buyers are juicing the housing market once again, accounting for 44 percent of all sales in March. While the percentage is high, the actual volume is not nearly what it was last fall, when the tax credit for them was originally set to expire.

(snip)

Today's existing home sales report from the National Association of Realtors was encouraging in sales and prices, but not so much in inventories. The Realtors reported a boost in raw inventory, although the quicker sales pace pushed the month's supply number lower (8 months from 8.5).

But the Realtors don't count the shadow inventory of foreclosed properties, which we know are out there in increasing numbers right now. Also not mentioned was the FHA increasing its upfront premium April 5. Some analysts believe that people were rushing to get in on FHA loans, and that, along with the tax credit may be artificially raising the numbers now.

But then again, what's artificial in today's housing market? All the numbers are so deranged right now. Even the exalted S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index folks—who had been pushed to report monthly price numbers with seasonal adjustments, even though year over year is far more accurate—put out a note this week saying that even their monthly seasonal adjustments were no good.

(snip)

The trouble is that government stimulus coupled with an unusual mix of buyers in the marketplace are skewing all comparisons. Home sales are increasing on both the low and the higher end of the market.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/36719438">more...
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Go2Peace Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 01:45 AM
Response to Reply #20
28. You should post this in it's own OP. There is so much misinformation at the moment it needs some
light. I am all for good news as it comes out, things are getting a *little* better. I read last month that there was going to be a 4 month push to convince the public that we are climbing fast. Seems that is the case. Trouble is, more dishonesty and psychological gaming does not beget true sustainability. Sooner or later we have to wean ourselves from the virtual economy.
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proudohioan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 04:35 AM
Response to Reply #28
37. +1000!!!! nt
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treestar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 12:49 PM
Response to Reply #28
58. Actually the public does need to think things are improving
In order for things to improve. There is a psychological aspect to all this.
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 05:19 PM
Response to Reply #58
70. Not really
Edited on Sat Apr-24-10 05:28 PM by AllentownJake
That is bullshit, and was mocked when Phil Gramm said it in 2008.

Savings rates are flat, so unless you are encouraging people to take on more debt, that is kind of ridiculous. Are you encouraging people to take more debt which has to be paid back with interest or defaulted?
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HughMoran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 06:46 PM
Response to Reply #70
73. You missed the point so completely, it isn't funny
All they said was that people feeling good is good for the economy because we all know that there is a significant psychological effect WRT consumer spending practices. What Gramm said was idiocy and NOT the same thing - and you fucking know it!

So, keep diving into the details when nobody here cares - this isn't about the nuts and bolts (and, once again, you KNOW it!)
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 07:09 PM
Response to Reply #73
75. Actually what I said
Edited on Sat Apr-24-10 07:23 PM by AllentownJake
Is that savings are flat and consumers are over leveraged and there is evidence of wage deflation.

What I said is when you see the housing inventory turnover rate go down from 14 months you will see a substantial increase in housing starts, which means that people who used to work in the housing sector will see a normalization of employment.

What I said is it isn't good for consumer spending to go up when savings are flat and there has been no job creation, that means that the source for the spending is most likely credit, which needs to be paid back with interest, generally high interest or defaulted, which is why we are in the situation we are in right now on both the banking sector, and the consumer sector.

Them are the nuts and bolts. Some mythological consumer sentiment means shit if people don't have discretionary money to spend. There is no such thing as a skittle shitting unicorn, as much as you may want to create one.

There is no "psychological component to the economy" other than a persons access to credit or money in a bank account and products they'd like to consume or capital assets they'd like to acquire.

I didn't bother showing the graph that shows 21% of Americans who are working think they are at an extreme risk of a lay-off either this year or next. They think that because mass lay-offs are still occurring.

Here is the deal, if someone able to buy a house in 2010 buys one because of tax credit that same person isn't buying another house later in 2010 unless they are investing or want a vacation home and have access to cash or credit to acquire it.

That is the definition of Push Demand forward, they were probably going to buy a house in the next 2 years, they bought one because it was cheaper with a tax credit. No tax credit they might have bought in 2011. If you don't create people who are going to buy a house later in 2010 with job creation, you have a decline.

No skittle shitting unicorn.

I'd be less worried if I were an economist on the O team in a bubble asset deflation as I would be in making the people who purchase said bubble asset able to purchase the excess inventory by having jobs.

They aren't really addressing that problem well either through looking at trade or looking at the impact of the finance sector on the real economy and what is a reasonable amount of banking to be a part of GDP.

FDR, these guys aren't. Root cause kind of doctor, not a symptom treatment type of guy.

Oh lastly while you are celebrating this, foreclosures are increasing on PRIME mortgages.

Thank you ladies and Gentleman, and please tip your waiters and waitresses.
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 07:21 PM
Response to Reply #75
76. Deleted sub-thread
Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
wolfgangmo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-25-10 11:37 AM
Response to Reply #58
79. Bread and circuses.
C'mon man - yes we need good news, but it actually has to be true to be effective long term. Why do you think that the news and politicians (and banks)are almost universally untrusted?

Here's a hint, they have spun stories since the master bullshitter, Raygun, lied to the country. Corporate news all the time. Banks lie like most people breath. And our 30 years of corporate-politicians has taught us to accept that all government is a lie (at least the teabaggers believe that).

Bullshit is bullshit. When news like this is accepted as truth, it degrades truth because it is not real. Sure there has been a 47% increase but in truth new home starts are at a level that is so low that you have to go back to the great depression to find comparable numbers. That is not an increase. That is not good news. That is spin.

And if the past 30 years have taught us anything, then it is that spin is devastating for this country and the world.
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 02:26 AM
Response to Reply #20
34. The best number that will come out is the number of these loans
Edited on Sat Apr-24-10 02:27 AM by AllentownJake
funded by the government and the number of these loans funded by bailed out banks.

In the 4th quarter of 2009, I believe it was 90% government funding of mortgages. Traditionally since the mid 80s that number is around 30%.

If the banks aren't selling mortgages other than as originators collecting the fees the loan are actually from a GSE or federal agency program like the VA or dept of agriculture, the banks have as about as much faith in the asset prices the loans are being issued on as I do. ;-)
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HughMoran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 11:46 AM
Response to Reply #20
54. gone mad
We all know things aren't rosy yet, but some of us CHOOSE not to DWELL on the NEGATIVE.

Please put me back on ignore - I know you can't STAND optimism.

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mkultra Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 03:54 PM
Response to Reply #20
67. i fail to see how this is bad
Edited on Sat Apr-24-10 03:57 PM by mkultra
sponging up the excess homes on the market is exactly whats needed for cleanup purposes. and just to be clear, It is the biggest jump in 47 years. Nothing he stated is factually incorrect or analytically useless.
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girl gone mad Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-25-10 01:15 AM
Response to Reply #67
77. Who said it was bad?
My point is that the spin in the op is completely dishonest. Even S&P has said ignore the numbers, they're wacky and will remain so due to distortions from the first time buyer credit. We had record low sales in February, tons of inventory is going to be coming on the market over the next few months. Rather than being sponged up, I'd expect to see somewhat of a surge in inventory.

I like facts, Jack, not mindless blather. Let's be honest about where we really are in this cycle, which is nowhere near recovery.
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mkultra Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-25-10 08:40 AM
Response to Reply #77
78. the op was factual
there was no spin. "as better weather and government incentives boosted sales." even makes your point. Perhaps it just wasn't negative enough for you.
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Aramchek Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-25-10 12:02 PM
Response to Reply #20
81. what a sourpuss!
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impik Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-23-10 09:59 AM
Response to Original message
3. Nooooooooooooooo! Good newssssss! That's terrible!
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Kdillard Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-23-10 10:14 AM
Response to Original message
4. Good news k and r.
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TexasObserver Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-23-10 10:58 AM
Response to Original message
6. recommend
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amborin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-23-10 10:59 AM
Response to Original message
7. just people hurrying to get the tax credit; sales are still 70% lower than 2005
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HughMoran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-23-10 11:25 AM
Response to Reply #7
9. hehe
Edited on Fri Apr-23-10 11:34 AM by HughMoran
I saw the ID and thought - 'lemme see what negative spin we'll find here'

...predictable as rain...



Note the rapid improvement after Obama took office:



Oh, I forgot, he can do NO good in your eyes :P
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amborin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-23-10 11:40 AM
Response to Reply #9
10. he he
Edited on Fri Apr-23-10 11:40 AM by amborin
Sales of Existing Homes Are Aided by Tax CreditBy CHRISTINE HAUSER and JAVIER C. HERNANDEZ

Published: April 22, 2010


Sales of existing homes rose sharply in March, an indication that a government tax credit was luring buyers to the market.



Sales were up 6.8 percent from February to an annual rate of 5.35 million, according to a report by the National Association of Realtors. Analysts had expected a 5.3 percent increase.

The association said the results suggested the beginning of a spring surge as buyers moved to take advantage of a tax credit of up to $8,000 that expires April 30.

“The home buyer tax credit has been a resounding success as these underlying trends point to a broad stabilization in home prices,” the chief economist for the association, Lawrence Yun, said.

Sales have been propped up recently by the appeal of the tax credit, low mortgage rates and perceptions of a slowly improving economy. But analysts expect home buying to slow in the months ahead.

eta:


http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/23/business/economy/23econ.html?scp=1&sq=housing%20sales&st=cse
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TwilightGardener Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-23-10 11:45 AM
Response to Reply #10
12. How sad, to be so heavily invested in pessimism, gloom and defeat.
Can't let a single ray of sunshine slip through the clouds.
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HughMoran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-23-10 02:19 PM
Response to Reply #12
17. It's funny
...knowing what you're going to read just based on the user ID is funny :D
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-23-10 05:10 PM
Response to Reply #17
18. Deleted sub-thread
Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
cornermouse Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 07:03 PM
Response to Reply #17
74. I'm going to point out
that you can find Allentown Jake's graphs which illustrate the truth elsewhere on DU.
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vaberella Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-23-10 05:40 PM
Response to Reply #12
19. Too funny. n/t
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girl gone mad Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-23-10 07:51 PM
Response to Reply #12
21. "so heavily invested in pessimism, gloom and defeat"
Worse still to be heavily invested in politicians who promote and defend endless war, rapacious oligarchical greed, denial of middle class economic reality and the ongoing destruction of human rights.
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QC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 08:53 AM
Response to Reply #21
43. Bingo! n/t
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HughMoran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 02:57 PM
Response to Reply #21
64. Yeah, let's use this as an opportunity to condemn everything
I mean, it's what you do best!
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-25-10 11:52 AM
Response to Reply #64
80. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 10:28 AM
Response to Reply #12
51. Why do the people who read government reports instead of taking public officials word for it
Hate America and the Government.
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treestar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 12:50 PM
Response to Reply #10
59. Then it's a stimulus that's working?
:shrug:
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HughMoran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 02:59 PM
Response to Reply #59
65. Yep. Don't do stimulus = BAD, do successful stimulus = FAKE RECOVERY
You can't win with doom and gloomers!

:shrug:
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 05:20 PM
Response to Reply #65
71. Why do you post this stuff
Edited on Sat Apr-24-10 05:20 PM by AllentownJake
You get your butt kicked cause you can't intellectually discuss and than call names.

I can recommend some reading for you so you might be able to actually discuss.
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tallahasseedem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-23-10 12:10 PM
Response to Reply #9
14. Word.
n/t
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 01:25 AM
Response to Reply #9
24. Rare appearence here Hugh
Edited on Sat Apr-24-10 01:31 AM by AllentownJake
Taking a break from the flame wars till after the election.

Just want to point something out. Improvement of new home sales could be good news, but the poster you are responding to actually is posting truth the tax credit is expiring.

The statistical percentage jumped before an expiring tax credit.

As you see by your own chart, when the credit initially was slated to expire in December you see a dramatic drop, as you see an increase when the credit was first authorized.

Pointing out a tax credit expiring increases sales is a fact.

As far as housing goes, you are going to reach a supply and demand issue with wage deflation and 18% underemployment (I count discouraged workers so my number is 23%).

I'm not going to post the 1st quarter foreclosure chart. Not necessary and not looking to pick a fight, but the poster is correct, sales spike before tax credits expire.

There will probably be a corresponding drop in sales in May, it is called pushing demand forward.

Oh and as far as that chart, it is statistical change month to month, it isn't absolute numbers. You don't want me to post that one either. ;-)


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HughMoran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 11:42 AM
Response to Reply #24
53. Yes, my friend, a coworker of mine is buying a house to get in before the deadline
The point is, when a poster makes an extra effort to find the negative in any and all news positive, I just lol. The absolute numbers are flattening out and they are look OK, though still very low traditionally - lower than in 1991/2. Are you hoping that we all die? I'm not sure why I care about your 'see mostly the negative' perspective? It's not like I don't know, I CHOOSE not to DWELL on the NEGATIVE - if that's OK with you. :P
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 12:01 PM
Response to Reply #53
55. I see housing prices that have to catch up to wage deflation or a second crisis
Edited on Sat Apr-24-10 12:04 PM by AllentownJake
:-P

What I've told you I've seen since December of 2009.

When someone points out, there is a push demand forward program expiring one month, I hardly find that negative, May sales would logically go down as they did in December of 2009.

Housing is still overvalued in comparison to the wages of the jobs that are being created for the jobs that were lost and the current unemployment rate. Without government support prices further deteriorate. They'd be better off going after route cause, lower wages and high unemployment than the pricing of an asset that follows it, but than again, I've never given his economic team any credit for being smart or logical.
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Go2Peace Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 02:20 AM
Response to Reply #9
33. Funny how your chart does not seem to show this as the "biggest change in 47 years"?
Edited on Sat Apr-24-10 02:21 AM by Go2Peace
Your own chart shows the spin friend. Just because many people on DU don't like using the forum to print talking points does not mean they are the enemy of the good you try to paint. Even your own posts show that the OP is a little dishonest when viewed against actual numbers. That is all people are saying.

You know, we would all be a little better off if folks recognized that DU tends to be a fairly well read place and it is just not the easiest place for "enthusiasts" to try and place spin. We have a little higher knowledge of the serious challenges the country faces.

That is why many recoil at these attempts to put "happy faces" everywhere. Not because folks don't *want* to see that really happen. But because many of us actually are pretty well read and don't believe that the old routine of printing massive money and using psychology to prop up the American economy is sustainable at this point.
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treestar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 12:46 PM
Response to Reply #9
57. It was just a matter of time
:hi:
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onenote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-23-10 11:47 AM
Response to Reply #7
13. you must be the only person on earth who thinks the economy isn't improving
unless it gets back to 2005 levels all at once.

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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 01:30 AM
Response to Reply #13
25. Define improvement
Foreclosures are hitting record levels and the small business indicators are actually declining. Chargeoffs on credit cards took an upswing in the past two months and the past 3 weeks of unemployment claims have taken an unexpected reversal upward again.

There has been a boost in consumer spending numbers, that correspond with an increase in the trade deficit. There is a theory this is people about to declare bankruptcy or about to be foreclosed spending the last of their money before filing.

Durable goods orders for March were down.

Intel posted good numbers, but their US numbers were abysmal.

Rail traffic in March for manufacturing commodities were down in March if that could be an indicator of where we are headed.

When you say the economy is improving, my question is for whom and where.
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Go2Peace Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 02:01 AM
Response to Reply #13
29. It's improving, but the fundamentals that are destroying things long term remain in place
That is my primary complaint. Spinning up an psychologically based "surge" (which is what we are mostly doing at the moment, which does have it's place) is not sustainable policy. This is what we have done each time we hit problems, yet the economic underpinning in our country continues to deteriorate.

Sometimes this place feels a bit like a Democratic "fox news, where it is more important to prop up an ideology than it is to get at the truth.

What I don't understand is this, why DU? The people that the spinners are fighting are much more well read and this kind of thing really won't work with them? Why not spend that energy where it can actually make a difference? If you are a Christian, go hit crosswalk.com. If you are not there are 100 other sites with low information voters. I know this is a more "hip" place to hang, but all folks do here with spin is devolve the forums.
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 02:19 AM
Response to Reply #29
32. Government spending replacing lost GDP
Which is fine if you are funding it through taxation of the haves.

We aren't doing that, we are funding it through borrowing massive amounts of money. A 3% increase on the 3 year or 10 year Treasury during any period of the 2000 teens will result in the US Government becoming Greece as the interest expense to roll over existing debt and fund new debt will exceed the entire budget for the Military.
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Go2Peace Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 06:06 AM
Response to Reply #32
39. I am not even talking about the "official" figures. Rather the M3 numbers
that are now hidden from view.
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 07:44 AM
Response to Reply #39
41. Well the Federal Reserves antics
Are an entirely different topic of conversation. The Plunge Protection Team makes their move at 2:30 everyday in the markets and no matter what the news is Monday always closes in the green.
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girl gone mad Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 08:13 AM
Response to Reply #32
42. and now floating the notion of a VAT tax to pay off debt and bring our trade deficit down.
Edited on Sat Apr-24-10 08:18 AM by girl gone mad
Ugh. Just what we need in the midst of a consumer driven recession.

It seems like this administration has no true economic ideology, they simply adopt any available theory that helps them achieve the goals of their financial masters. When the banks needed a multi-trillion dollar bailout, they were hard core Keynesians, ready to spend at will. Now suddenly, despite ongoing record unemployment, they've found a new religion and are taking up communion with the deficit hawks. I don't believe there is a single soul in the administration with even a slight grasp of monetary theory. I guess it makes it that much easier for them to do as they're told.
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 08:57 AM
Response to Reply #42
44. Larry Summers and Tim Geithner
Edited on Sat Apr-24-10 09:08 AM by AllentownJake
Have never gotten one thing right in their life other than being members of the lucky sperm club.

Why would they start getting things right now.

They fucked up, as the stimulus bill money putters out teachers, police, fireman, and prison guards are being laid off at record numbers. Their shovel ready projects were mostly wasteful, and the won't do anything about trading with countries that don't share our values.



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mkultra Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 04:00 PM
Response to Reply #7
69. fabricating negative facts?
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ClarkUSA Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-23-10 11:04 AM
Response to Original message
8. Good. This is another success that can be chalked up to Team Obama's smart economic policies...
... I have been thinking of putting my home up for sale and this data adds to my inclination to do so.
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amborin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-23-10 11:43 AM
Response to Reply #8
11. the bulk of the sales are short sales at record low prices....the median price is record low
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onenote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-23-10 12:18 PM
Response to Reply #11
16. you have a link for the claim that the median price is record low?
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 01:34 AM
Response to Reply #16
26. You could read the actual report
Edited on Sat Apr-24-10 02:32 AM by AllentownJake
http://www.census.gov/const/newressales.pdf

Instead of the MSM media interpretation of the report. Probably take as much time as your debating a report you haven't read based on a badly written article by a hack who probably barely understands what they are writing about.

Probably take 5 minutes out of arguing over the hack article.

4 pages and basic math skills, not hard.
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onenote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 10:17 AM
Response to Reply #26
49. according to the report, march 2009 median was lower as was aug 2009 average
you're right. that wasn't hard.
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 10:20 AM
Response to Reply #49
50. :-)
Edited on Sat Apr-24-10 10:25 AM by AllentownJake
Didn't take a position did I.


Seriously, why does anyone argue based on a story from a reporter you know probably didn't even bother to read 4 pages themselves.

When arguing over this nonsense in the future, go to the census site, BLS site, or whatever government agency is releasing the statistics.

The reports aren't that long.

Good things in there, mediocre, and some not so good.

Months to sale is a number that is the most disturbing.

Now the poster who said that can now pull out numbers showing higher low end sales and higher high end sales...the beautiful thing about statistics is the mean.

However, than we would be arguing actual things in the report, not some other person's opinion of the report.
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mkultra Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 03:59 PM
Response to Reply #49
68. nice work thwarting the fools
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treestar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 12:52 PM
Response to Reply #8
60. These negative nellies really and truly want the economy to fail
the good news stimulates the economy as people get confidence back, so that a recovery requires one to look at things positively. So their goal has to be to get people depressed again, and why do they want that? That's the only mystery;)
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 05:26 PM
Response to Reply #60
72. Good news does not stimulate the economy
Edited on Sat Apr-24-10 05:27 PM by AllentownJake
unless the good news is someone getting a raise or job.

Of course, unless you want people to be using more credit cards and buying things they can't afford. How did we get into this mess in the first place, I fucking forget.
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Cha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-23-10 08:03 PM
Response to Original message
22. What the heck!!
:)
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CoffeeCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-23-10 09:51 PM
Response to Original message
23. I see a trend--smaller new homes...
I see some new construction in my area, in places where construction had
abruptly halted. However, the houses that are going up are smaller. The
trend seems to be moving away from mcmansions and neighborhoods full of
bigger homes.

Growth seems to be in areas where smaller homes (3BR, 2bath, aprox 1600 sq ft)
are being built.

Has common sense prevailed?
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 01:38 AM
Response to Original message
27. Check the May numbers in June
Edited on Sat Apr-24-10 01:41 AM by AllentownJake
Expiring tax credits tend to push demand forward, and seeing this isn't October, the May article headline could be record decline in sales of new homes.

http://www.census.gov/const/newressales.pdf

Oh and Hugh, can you link the actual reports in this.

The intelligent people that like to lurk appreciate it.

The writer of this article is a hack, and a bad one. It hurt my brain to read such bad economic writing.

The better number is on page 2 of the PDF which is the inventory numbers of new homes. Disturbing is the months for sale number on page 4.

Lower inventory if met with increased demand equals jobs, which is what most people care about. You need to get that months for sale number to start to go down to show demand is meeting the inventory supply.

:-)

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Go2Peace Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 02:07 AM
Response to Reply #27
30. Better wait a few more months before things will simmer down and we will get better info
We are in a heavy spin cycle to bring up spending in the low information population as well as low information voters for the coming election. I have heard the push will continue for 4 months. When I first heard it I placed my retirement in more agressive funds. Glad I did, it worked out well. I will re-evaluate it in a couple of months.

I wish this were all true, but the fundamentals have not changed, we are still printing money like mad, and we are relying on what we have relied on for 30 years, the fake psychological economy. That won't work well if we don't change the underlying weaknesses. I think you know that though.
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 02:14 AM
Response to Reply #30
31. The markets are completely divorced from reality
Spending most of my time gardening and laughing right now and working at a non-profit while I look for a job.

Good news, is there might be a position opening at the non-profit as someone is leaving and they like me.

I'm going to get a kick out of the April U3 and U6 numbers to see where they hide the past month of rising existing claims and the municipal workforce layoffs.

When I saw an Obama economist blame a rise in claims on Cesar Chavez day last week, when California was actually the bright spot in the report, I pretty much knew they are fucked and making shit up.

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Go2Peace Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 02:26 AM
Response to Reply #31
35. I believe we will get another short run from priming the pump with dollars
I really do hope that Obama has plans for some real fundamental changes to our economic structure. I haven't given up because he has recently made some fairly progressive moves in a few areas. But so far we are still running the same old game, and I think we all know what that would mean.. If we play it really good we might get another "Clinton style" 5 year run, but WHAM, the gates will close so damn fast this next time when it is over if we have not changed the fundamentals and we will be in a heap of shit.
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 02:29 AM
Response to Reply #35
36. Meh
Edited on Sat Apr-24-10 02:31 AM by AllentownJake
When I see handcuffs for the fraud, I'll believe him. Not bullshit SEC civil suits, Department of Justice indictments on major players.

WAMU, Lehman, and the AIG reports I've read are enough for indictments on more than a few people.

Till than he's posturing. His speech this week was disappointing to say the least. Of course I've stopped listening to his speeches, I just read them right now, you get a clearer picture of who the hell this guy actually is when you take away the brilliant delivery.
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proudohioan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 04:48 AM
Response to Reply #31
38. OMG, Cesar Chavez day?????
They have GOT to be kidding? Who in the HELL gets Cesar Chavez day off????


:shrug:
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 07:42 AM
Response to Reply #38
40. Holidays don't lead to swings of people filing unemployment claims
Edited on Sat Apr-24-10 07:43 AM by AllentownJake
It was a bad explanation to begin with. If there is a 4 day week, if anything there would be under reported claims, as there is one less day for lay-offs and firings.

There logic is the state offices are closed so they get hit with an extra days worth of claims the next week. You can't blame the same two holidays two weeks in a row.

However, when the one area showing a significant decline in your report, is the only place the Holiday is celebrated, you really are lying.
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proudohioan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 09:43 AM
Response to Reply #40
45. No wonder no one buys the spin propaganda.
Talk about "transparency in government"!!!! Sheesh!

Oh, and good luck with the potential job, by the way.

T.
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 09:54 AM
Response to Reply #45
46. Thanks
The lies are really bad, like very easily disproved, a sophomore in high school could do it as long as they passed reading comprehension and basic math.

They'd probably do better politically if they just stopped lying.
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proudohioan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 10:03 AM
Response to Reply #46
47. Yes, and once the lying has stopped, the repair can begin....
Much like the alcoholic who will only admit to a slight "drinking problem".....
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aikoaiko Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 10:05 AM
Response to Original message
48. This is good news, but I wonder how much is attributed to the end of the 8K tax credit


:shrug:

FWIW, I think the economy is improving, but the current house sales might be exaggerated doe to people trying to take advantage of the 8K tax credit ending this month.
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cornermouse Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 11:36 AM
Response to Original message
52. New homes = urban sprawl = loss of farmland = higher cost groceries
That's not particularly good news.
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hayu_lol Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 12:39 PM
Response to Reply #52
56. Wonder how many unemployed people are out there...
buying these homes?
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quaker bill Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 01:09 PM
Response to Original message
61. Sales are in fact up
My end of this business, specifically the front end of the process, land development permitting, the type of permits people need to create the lots to put homes on, has seen a recent and marked increase in activity, over just the last 3 months. Business has roughly doubled in the last 3 months and is steadily increasing. Business is not at 2007 volumes, but money is moving and projects are starting up again. Since my end of the business requires a 3 to 6 month lead time, it appears that business will continue an upward trend for some time to come.

I do business in the 4th worst hit real estate market in the country for foreclosures and bankruptcies. If there are places where recovery should be delayed, this is one of them. Regardless, recovery is well underway and in the sector hit hardest by the recession.

It is good news, and hang on doomsayers, because you are about to see alot more of it.

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Kdillard Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 01:12 PM
Response to Reply #61
62. Thanks for that information and hopefully the trend continues.
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Phx_Dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 01:22 PM
Response to Original message
63. While they are some caveats to this, it is still good news!
Edited on Sat Apr-24-10 01:23 PM by Phx_Dem
Any time sales are up,as opposed to down, regardless if they are inflated due to government stimulus, it's good. The government passed a stimulus bill for a reason, and it appears to be working.

Existing home sales are also up, as is just about every other economic indicator.

So :P to all the negative Nellies who can't stand a wee bit of good news.
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-10 03:02 PM
Response to Reply #63
66. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
HughMoran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-25-10 02:56 PM
Response to Reply #63
82. Stimulus works = Bad, Stimulus doesn't work = Bad
:shrug:
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