I am convinced Crist is running as an "I" and I am also convinced it could have major effects..

[DCBob]

Several stories this morning all suggest Crist is breaking with the GOP and running as an Independepent...

http://liveshots.blogs.foxnews.com/2010/04/16/charlie-crist-to-run-as-independent/?test=latestnews
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0410/35937.html
http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/04/16/1583799/gov-crist-gets-heros-welcome-at.html

Also, recent polling indicates he likely wins as an "I". If he wins, he likely caucuses with the Dems meaning the Dems gain a seat in the Senate since this is a Repub seat now. Furthermore, Crist can now be free to endorse other Democrats in the Gov and House races with little to no risk... which could result in a very good night for the FL Dems in Nov this year. This also bodes well for Dems in 2012.. with a left leaning Indy Senator, another Dem Senator and a Dem Gov (if she wins) who will likely all back the Dem candidate... and we all know how important Florida is in a general election.

Senator Crist (I) could be major game changer.

[rucky]

1. I think we'll see more of this from the center.

and I don't necessarily think it's a bad thing.

[d_r]

3. I keep thinking there is going to be a break somehow

That as the republicans push father to the right they are pushing away from their more moderates. I used to think their far right was going to splinter off, but it may be they take over and the more center splinter off. Or hopefully they just fall apart.

[rucky]

8. It makes political sense right now.

I don't think it's as much a philosophical break as it is opportunistic. GOP-ers can even tap the Teabag vote as independents.

Right now, it's only really safe for incumbents like Lieberman and Crist to do it, with the name recognition and all. If Crist sees success, it may start a trend - especially depending on what incumbents lose in upcoming primaries. Then it'll continue until someone like Sarah Palin does it and loses. Then the trend is over and the snake will keep eating its tail. But it's good to keep things churning.

[KittyWampus]

61. well thought out comment, IMO. Especially your touching on Teabaggers' perception of themselves

as 'Independent'.

[depakid]

2. Time will tell

[UncleTomsEvilBrother]

4. Well, I'm in Florida,

....and I can pretty much tell you that the intelligent Alex Sink(D)is all but out of the gubernatorial race to her repuke opponent. The rest of the post sounds pretty accurate, though. I'm wondering if Crist will be an example for other "R's" around the country who have been abandoned by the GOP. I hope Crist does switch to "I" because Meek(D) seems to be running a rather lazy campaign. I was thinking of switching my party affiliation in order to vote for Crist in the primary if he stayed "R," but I just cannot do it. I think my body would turn into a pillar of salt if I EVER voted "R."

[DCBob]

5. What happened to Alex?

I thought the latest polling showed that race fairly close?

[UncleTomsEvilBrother]

9. I was focusing on this poll when I made my comment:

http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/03/29/1554311/poll-bill-mccollum-widens-lead.html

It shows the republican candidate has 49-34 lead over Alex Sink in the polls. I'm going down to the Democratic office Tuesday to see if I can maybe change some things around with my phone volunteering, but I know it's going to be an uphill battle. You think the mainstream media has given the teaparty exposure? In FL, one would think that they are all the newspapers, radios, and local news stations are interested in.

[DCBob]

11. Yeah, that's significant lead but not insurmountable. Lots of things can happen between now and then...

There must be some dirt on McCollum somewhere.. that guy reeks of dirty politics.

[peekaloo]

18. I wouldn't characterize Meek's campaign as lazy.

He has been criss-crossing the state, with little/no media interest, managing to petition his way onto the ballot as opposed to paying a filing fee. He's also raised a nice chunk of change along the way. The "moderate progressive" self-definition makes me groan but his grassroots approach should benefit him in the long run as opposed to the high profile pissing contest that is the Crist/Rubio match up.

Crist is an opportunist that does what is best for Charlie the career politician. I feel the same way about Mr. S&L bailout, Clenis inspector McCollum while I wonder aloud "Where is Alex Sink?".

Color me tentatively optimistic.

p.s. hello from the very conservative middle of the State. :hi:

[Cha]

59. Thanks for the inside info, peekaloo.

[hlthe2b]

6. What makes you so sure he'd caucus as a DEM?

As an independent, he still wants to pick off the right-leaning indies and more moderate (sane) RETHUGS.... He'll be pressured to indicate which caucus he intends to join during the campaign, so to move towards the Dems might not make sense for him.

[DCBob]

7. I suspect if he switches the GOP will totally abandon him.. He will be considered a traitor...

and they will probably attempt to destroy him. I thnk its all the way or nothing for Crist at this point.

[UncleTomsEvilBrother]

10. You're probably right, but

just think of what happened to Lieberman. In politics, a vote is a vote, regardless of how smarmy the person is. If Crist were to run/win as an independent, I suspect his voting will be a true swing vote. He's a moderate if I've ever seen one. However, both of the main parties would gladly accept his vote.

[DCBob]

13. Yes, but this is a bit different.. Lieberman was already a Dem Senator for many years..

and had developed friendships and loyalties among the other Dem senators. Also, I think this election will be so nasty and ugly that Crist wont have a choice.

[Change Happens]

22. He has to announce right now where he will caucus --- We have to know that

[DCBob]

24. Why does he have to announce now??

I believe he can vote anyway he wants at the time of the first session of congress in Jan 2011.

[Change Happens]

27. So that voters know how he is going to vote on committe leadership positions...etc.

Cannot get into the Senate as a wild card...This is required, I am sure both sides will DEMAND that of him.

[DCBob]

30. Nope. Not required.. He does not and likely will not announce before the election..

Gives him at lot more leverage to wait..

[HooptieWagon]

33. I think you're right

Crist is a Republican, and has been his whole political career. He is small government, anti-choice, etc. If he runs and wins as an Ind, he still would probably caucus with the Rs unless they slam the door in his face... and I don't think they would do that given they need every vote to prevent cloture, etc. In a sense, he would be the R's Lieberman, infuriating the Party to the max, but voting with them most of the time.

[grantcart]

50. Because if he does he will get charimanship of a sub committee

oh say something like NASA.

A Senator in the majority caucus has tremendous power and helps in raising money for reelection and bringing bacon back to the state.

A Senator in the minority caucus gets to sign letters saying NO.

[DCBob]

54. Right you are grantcart...

All other issues aside the real question for Crist is does he want be with the winners or the losers... no need to answer that.

[Clio the Leo]

12. Or he waits and runs against Nelson in '12....

... the other school of thought ... which (for the short term anyway) is an even better scenario.

Meeks is only 6pts down from Rubio in recent polling with at least a third of the electorate having no opinion of him.

[DCBob]

15. Maybe, but what politician waits when he has an election is his grasp?

Also, if he waits, he loses the benefits of running as a sitting Gov. This is Crist's moment.. make or break time. I think he goes for it.

[peekaloo]

20. I'd rather see Senator Grayson take the reins.

:D

[tabbycat31]

35. the thought of that amazes me

drool

[wyldwolf]

14. I think if he won he'd be a wild card in the senate

not a reliable vote for the Dems or the GOP and, thus, a very powerful senator.

[DCBob]

16. Yes, I agree but he does have to choose who he caucuses with, right?

That's the most important vote since that will determine the majority. I think he chooses the Dems.

[wyldwolf]

17. he certainly wouldn't be bound by it.

[Perky]

19. I do not think he will caucuse with the Dems

If we enbraced Lieberman the GOP will embrace him. They have no choice but to pull out all the stops to be nice to him

[Change Happens]

21. Well, one important thing: He will not caucus with the Dems.

[DCBob]

23. Care to explain the reasoning behind your statement...

I gave my reasons a few posts above.

[Change Happens]

25. His base is within the Republican party, and not the Democratic party...

He does not and cannot realistically expect the Democratic base: AA, young hispanics, older Jewish voters, labor, teacher's unions...etc. to line up behind him as a an "I".

If he makes the full switch and says he is going to caucus with us, then we will have 2 Dems. on the ballot...If he says he will caucus with the pukes, they will have 2 candidates on the ballot...Which do you prefer?

[DCBob]

31. If he switches to "I" he loses a big chunk of his Repuke base..

and gains a huge new chunk of a Dem base.

[WeDidIt]

26. Crist will NEVER caucus with the Dems

His only real chance of winning as an indie would be to promise to caucus with the Repukes. Given a choice between two Republicans and a Democrat, the Democrat stands a better chance of winning, but it's Crist's ONLY chance of winning.

But if Crist promised to caucus with the Dems, he;d lose outright because he;d lose moderate Republicans who feel disaffected by the tea party but will not give up on the GOP. That puts Rubio into the win column.

I would refer to this as a reverse Lieberman.

[Change Happens]

28. +1, bingo!

[DCBob]

34. -1, bunko!

[DCBob]

37. Marc Ambinder: "Would Crist caucus with Dems? Probably"

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2010/04/crist-inching-towards-somewhere/39038/

[WeDidIt]

39. Ambinder's conclusions are all wrong.

Crist could never win the election if he claimed he'd caucus with the Dems. Rubio wins guaranteed under that scenario because Florida voters would have a choice between two Democrats and a Republican. Crist's only chance is to run as an Independent who would caucus with the GOP.

Crist would become the Lieberman of the Republican party, caucusing with the GOPpers but voting with the Dems on numerous bills.

[DCBob]

41. I would advise him not to say who he is caucusing with until after the election...

He will have alot more leverage and little risk.

[WeDidIt]

42. If he does that, he loses and Rubio wins.

He has no choice but to say he will caucus with the GOP. He must hold onto the moderate Republicans who are disaffected by the teabaggers but will never become Dems and pull the Independent vote through his name recognition if he is to win. He can only do that by stating specifically he would caucus with the GOP.

[DCBob]

45. Nah. He can win without declaring whom he will caucus with...

All he has to say is that he will decide later based on which party is serving the people of Florida and America better.

[WeDidIt]

51. Then Rubio wins

No Republican, regardless of how moderate, will risk Crist caucusing with the Dems.

[DCBob]

52. You seem you know alot about how Republicans think.. Are they that monolithic??

I guess it goes with their simple mindedness.

[WeDidIt]

53. I need only look at history

Crist's only shot at winning this is to run as an independent AND pledge to caucus with the Republicans. Anything sort of that puts Rubio in office.

[DCBob]

55. What history?? This has never happened before in the state of Florida..

AFAIK.

[WeDidIt]

56. The history of how Republicans vote

Republicans are 90% or more in lockstep with their party in every state.

Crist CANNOT win without Republican votes.

What's more is there is a Democrat who is not a loon running in the general, so Crist cannot depend upon enough Democratic votes to alleviate Rubio's gains.

Gallup shows the nation at 40% conservative, 20% liberal, and 36% moderate. Crist must peal off enough conservatives and grab enough of the moderates to hope to win the general election. He cannot do that unless he states emphatically he will caucus with the Republicans.

[DCBob]

57. Why are Rethugs so in "lockstep" with their party?? Can't they think for themselves?

Is it some defect in the conservative brain? I think so.

[WeDidIt]

58. It's part of being a conservative

Liberals are more open to other views by their liberal nature.

Conservatives, not so much.

And conservatives outnumber liberals two to one.

[DCBob]

60. Rubio can't win with just the teabagger vote.... he needs a major chunk of the Independents..

who are 25% of the FL reg voters.. and they most likely will vote for Crist. Also, if Meeks is trailing badly by election day, many Dems will vote for Crist. Its starting to look like Rubio is toast... IMO.

[WeDidIt]

62. Crist hasn't announced shit yet

so don't count your toast before it pops.

[DCBob]

63. He will... just wait a few more days..

BTW, I am not counting, I am predicting.

[Divine Discontent]

65. I am a lib Dem, and I certainly would

consider voting for Crist if he polls higher in a 3 way contest than Meeks, of course Meeks gets my vote if he has a shot of winning on election day, but if Crist and Rudeo are neck and neck, I'm voting for Crist and considering it an improvement over Martinez.

[DCBob]

66. Yeah, I expect that will be the feeling of many Dems but..

if the Rubio/Crist battle gets ugly and they tear each other down with relentless attacks, then maybe Meek can slip in there with about 35% of the vote and win it. Its possible.

[Divine Discontent]

64. You seem so overly confident about how GOPers will vote if Crist doesn't say he'll caucus as a GOP

&, you say that since there is no 'loon' Democrat running, Crist can't depend on many Dem votes. My question is, what constitutes a 'loon' democrat? Many policy examples if you don't mind? Inquiring minds would like to know?

[Zynx]

47. I think he would too. He must hate the Republicans by now.

[DCBob]

48. and the Republicans are starting to loath him... many are already bad mouthing him publicly..

and delaring support for Rubio. Crist really has no other choice now but to run as an "I"... if he wants to win.

[polichick]

43. Doesn't make sense that he'd caucus with the nutjob right...

He doesn't have to advertise that he'd caucus with the Dems.

[saltpoint]

29. Good post. If Crist jumps in as an 'I,' it reparks Rubio's car.

[DCBob]

32. The Rethugs and teabaggers are freaking out. about this..

They know the implications.

[saltpoint]

36. Hi, DCBob. I bet they are freaking out.

Rubio leads Crist by a bunch in the Puke polling but if Charlie goes indy the whole works gets jammed up pretty good.

I'd love to see the Democrats reclaim Florida in a big way.

[DCBob]

38. Yes, it does throw the election wide open,, but I think when the dust settles..

Crist likely wins.

[saltpoint]

40. I'll take your read on it, and then toss out the hope that

if Crist wins he'll convert to our side once he gets to the Senate. I'd prefer the Democratic candidate in the first place, of course, but to NOT have Rubio in the Senate would be a plus. If we can thwart Rubio's rise in this race it may lessen the chances that he will advance toward a power position in the GOP later.

[polichick]

44. I agree that it would be a big game changer - watching with great interest. k&r

[DCBob]

46. Me too. Looks like Florida has become the teabagger's Waterloo..

Fun to watch them meltdown.

[grantcart]

49. How about Sen Bennett of Utah?

Very likely to lose the nomination, he also could easily win the election as an independent.