"the Democratic party is alive and well."

[babylonsister]

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2010_04/023332.php


'REFERENDUM' FALLS FAR SHORT IN SPECIAL ELECTION.... It seemed like a good strategy at the time. With Robert Wexler (D) giving up his U.S. House seat in South Florida, a special election would offer conservatives a chance to create a "referendum" on the Obama presidency. After all, the election, held yesterday, would be the first since the Affordable Care Act was signed into law, and Republicans could ride the wave of voter anger to an upset.

Indeed, the Republican candidate, Ed Lynch, ran on a strictly anti-Obama platform, vowing to repeal the new health care law and railing against the recovery efforts that rescued the economy. Lynch sought to position himself as the "next Scott Brown."

So, how'd that referendum turn out? The backlash against Democrats and the president propelled Lynch to a 26-point defeat.

Democrat Ted Deutch won a special election Tuesday for a Florida congressional seat in the nation's first federal election since the passage of the Democrats' health care plan.

Deutch held a sizable lead over Republican Ed Lynch late Tuesday night in the Palm Beach-area 19th District, prompting Lynch to concede.

Deutch had 62 percent of the vote compared to Lynch's 36 percent with 97 percent of the precincts counted, CNN affiliate WFOR reported.

"We've heard for months that tonight ... is a referendum on health care, it's a referendum on the (Obama) administration, it's a referendum on what direction this country is going," Deutch said last night. "Let me tell you something, what we learned today is that in Broward County and Palm Beach County, Florida, the Democratic Party is alive and well."

Putting the race in the larger context, there have been six special elections for U.S. House seats since the president's inauguration 14 months ago: NY20, IL5, CA32, CA10, NY23, and FL19. Democrats have won all six.

Rep.-elect Deutch will be sworn in fairly soon, and the House Democratic caucus will return to 254 members.

—Steve Benen

[Dr Morbius]

1. I'd like to see this as some kind of public approval of...

...HCR, but isn't Palm Beach a pretty reliably blue district?

I'm sorry, but I don't think this really means anything - except "chalk up another GOP failure."

[babylonsister]

2. Read the last highlighted para. It's not just FL. But it is also too

soon to have a parade. I just like the fact that the rethug message, at least in So. Florida, doesn't seem to have worked. May that continue!

[Dr Morbius]

3. Amen to that, sister.

I think it's pretty clear Americans are still pretty unhappy with the GOP. I think it's also pretty clear that Democrats are hated almost as much. If one was to rely on what one reads here, one might be convinced the party will lose both houses this November and Obama will be defeated in a landslide. Fortunately, I rather doubt all these naysayers and Obama-haters here are really Democrats.

[zipplewrath]

6. Mixed bag

Too much was made of Scott Brown's victory, but it was not "meaningless". Yes, alot of local politics had much to do with it. But those same basic factors are at work other places, not just Mass.
It was a "reliable" democratic district, but that is intentional in GOP controlled Florida. Stick 'em all in one district and let them have just one seat, not influence several. He won by 62% in a district with 66% registered democrats.
Seniors were much more likely to be accepting of this reform, since most of them were on medicare or medicaid already, and they watched the "donut hole" get closed. They are also far more engaged on a week to week basis with health insurance and aren't as scared by "death panels" and the like. Alternately, they care little about pre-existing conditions or child health care coverage, they ARE a pre-existing condition and they still get covered by medicare.
The key factor here will be the independents. Independents are influenced by alot of things, including pissed off progressives.

[karynnj]

11. With the seniors, I disagree -

They were clearly a target of all the Republican attacks that the Democrats were cutting billions from Medicare.

As to MA, I think the fact that the early poll right after the primary had Coakley ahead by 31 points showed that before most of MA knew much about either candidate, people answered on a generic Democrat/Republican basis. Had each been a "typical" candidate, that is likely where the race would have stayed. The healthcare bill did pass the Senate in that time frame, but it is more likely the respective campaigns that made the difference.

[zipplewrath]

15. But they didn't stick

There was the odd freak at a meeting that'd holler "no government run healthcare, and keep your hands off my medicare". However, most seniors felt fairly secure in the outcome. Especially those in the district in question. The only two things they were claiming to do was to reduce waste and phase out a particular medicare program that was marginally popular in Florida. The GOP tried to paint this as some sort of "medicare rip off" but these folks know medicare and they knew it was nothing of the sort. And they also knew all about the "donut hole" that was getting closed.

[karynnj]

17. Obviously what you say is true

But it was nice to have this election essentially verify that because it is hard to know what does stick. Your point that they and their friends deal with Medicare often is likely a big part of why it didn't. (There were other times when I thought attacks were too ridiculous to stick, but to some degree they did - ie the SBVT and the climate change lies that seemed (per polling) to have affected the percent of people who believe that climate change is a threat.)

[ellenfl]

19. except that many seniors believe the teabaggers. eom

[karynnj]

9. That is true, but it is significant that he did almost as well as Wexler

did when Obama headed the ticket. http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2008/election_results/us_house/ against the same opponent. (This is convenient as this can't be just that the Republican ran a poor campaign. It is also worth noting that this district has an unusually high share of elderly voters. They have been targeted for almost a year with claims that Obama was hurting Medicare. That the numbers did not shift more than they did suggests that this group of elderly voters did not buy it.

There has to be some value to being the well known incumbent. It looks like all the Republican did was to get the percent that had gone to an independent - who was a "centrist" Democrat who had lost to Wexler in the primary.

[ellenfl]

18. yes, but surrounding areas, also mostly blue, have

elected republicans in the past and present . . . clay shaw, mark foley and most recently tom rooney.

in fact, florida has more registered dems than repubs, although one cannot tell by looking at state government. hopefully, the un-gerrymander bill that will be on the ballot this november will change that. however, i think the skewing is also the result of more seniors voting.

ellen fl

[ShortnFiery]

4. Yes, the base of The Democratic Party sings, "Happy! Happy! Joy! Joy!"

I don't know about the political elites of our party, but the base couldn't be better. :sarcasm:

http://federallyreserved.com/wp-content/uploads/depression-era.bmp

[babylonsister]

7. I can't recall why I took you off ignore, but I now recall why I put

you on there.

Must be miserable to be constantly miserable. :hi:

[karynnj]

12. Little Miss sunshine again

Can't you let a little light in - ever?

[ProSense]

14. Wonder what kind of person

finds happiness only when the President and the Democratic Party stumble?

[political_Dem]

5. This is beautiful news. It seems that people are thinking about their best interests for once. eom

[karynnj]

8. Deutch did almost as well as the well liked incumbent running on an Obama headed ticket

The 2008 results were, Wexler - 66%, Lynch 27%, and Graber - 7%. http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2008/election_results/us_house/

[JamesA1102]

10. Odd on how this isn't getting any news coverage nt

[Jennicut]

13. I just saw it here. I totally forgot about the special election.

But anything that is positive for Dems never gets coverage.

[FrenchieCat]

20. It's actually par de course.......

The media should be arrested, as they are certainly committed crimes against humanity, as in the American people. Of course we don't call them out on their propaganda, which makes them feel that they can just do whatever they want....which is what they do.

[old mark]

16. And yet we are told over and over how the GOP will sweep us out of congress

in November...
I hope the republicans really believe that, I would LOVE to see them thoroughly disappointed when we win....


mark