The Danger of Assuming the Chickens have Hatched Already

[Clio the Leo]

(I'm have gotten out of the sick bed to post this, so please appreciate the importance of it.)

I have been following The Hill's whip count all week, it's the most accurate one I've found. It reads as follows...

WHIP COUNT: House Democrats' positions on the healthcare reform bill
By The Hill staff

The Hill's survey/tracking of House Democrats' positions on healthcare reform legislation.
UPDATED: 3/20/10 at 10:07 p.m.

If every member votes and all GOP lawmakers vote no, the maximum number of Democratic defections to pass a bill is 37, which would result in a 216-215 tally.

Firm No, Leaning No, Likely No (37)
(see link for list of names)

http://thehill.com/homenews/house/85693-whip-watch-the-hills-survey-of-house-dems-positions-on-healthcare-

This is the FIRST time it's been at 37. We now do not have a vote to spare.

And on TOP of this you have....
@edhenrycnn is reporting that former Pres. Clinton is making calls in the final push to get health care passed.
http://twitter.com/WestWingReport/status/10801557578

If you can call somebody, CALL THEM .... if you cant call anyone PRAY ON IT! ....... to WHOMEVER! lol

Oh and the Rules Committee members are yelling at one another on CSPAN 2 at the time of this writing. Good times, good times.

[LeftyAndProud60]

1. I don't get why people are acting like this is over. The dems have a history of screwing up. I can't

believe Obama and Pelosi would do all of this today w/o the votes. This is scary.

[gateley]

4. I really was convinced there was no way Pelosi would let this get to a vote without

being certain she had all the votes. Maybe SHE'S certain, and we just don't know about some 'yeas' that she does? Please God. :scared:

[Aramchek]

18. that's what's going on

why hold the vote until it's assured passage?

[Clio the Leo]

2. Note: this number does NOT include Rep Sanchez....

.... see the list, she's listed under the "unknown."

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=433x233731

[gateley]

3. I was just going to post Frenchie's thread about her. I'm almost

guessing she's a 'no'. WTF was she doing in FL if she gave a damn about health care??? Her ass should have been in DC!

[FrenchieCat]

5. List updated based on my info.....

RECENT UPDATES: Reps. Glenn Nye, Jim Langevin, Jerry McNerney is a YES, Jim Matheson, Zack Space, John Hall is a YES, Henry Cuellar is a YES, Shelley Berkley, Marcia Fudge, Ciro Rodriguez is a YES, Sanford Bishop, Chris Carney, Dennis Cardoza, Melissa Bean, John Tanner, Ike Skelton, Jim Costa, Bruce Braley, Paul Tonko, Mike Quigley, Mary Jo Kilroy, Baron Hill, Tim Holden, Bill Owens is a YES, Mike Ross, Bart Stupak, Marion Berry, John Barrow, Harry Teague, Michael Arcuri, Scott Murphy, Harry Mitchell, John Salazar, Tim Bishop, Bob Etheridge, Suzanne Kosmas, Brad Ellsworth, Jason Altmire, Joe Courtney, John Adler, Allen Boyd, Adam Smith, Dina Titus, Chris Murphy, Peter DeFazio is a YES, Lincoln Davis, John Boccieri and Charlie Wilson.

there may be others.

[Clio the Leo]

7. but we're still at 37 no/likely no....

I think we have to count on the stupak bunch flipping because of the promise of an exec order.

I hope Nancy and the President can sleep better than I can.

[LeftyAndProud60]

15. I could've sworn I read somewhere that Bill Owens was a Yes. NT

[LeftyAndProud60]

17. Owens apparently is a yes.

http://www.wcax.com/Global/story.asp?S=12176972

[quiller4]

27. Kilroy, Wilson, Adam Smith, Carney and Boccieri are confirmed Yeses.

[gateley]

6. Hope you feel better, Clio -- thanks for doing this! nt

[Clio the Leo]

8. I'll feel better when we get this stupid bill passed.

[gateley]

11. A fucking men! We ALL will! nt

[DCBob]

9. If this is true and Sanchez is MIA then we are screwed.. what happened??

I thought this was in the bag..

[TomClash]

10. Excellent post nt

[Imajika]

12. Please relax, have a nice nights sleep...

Pelosi has the votes.

All this whip counting people are trying to do is interesting, but not the full picture.

The Democratic leadership knows the real score, and Pelosi is one hell of a whip counter. Going into this she knew with enough arm twisting and hard work that she would have the votes.

She HAS the votes. Some are being let go now as other critical votes firm up. That is how it works. Presidents really don't lose big votes like this, or the vote just won't be held in the first place.

Tomorrow HCR will pass in the House. My guess is it passes with 217 votes. The Senate bill will become law, and the reconciliation package will go on to the Senate. Might the Senate blow their end of the deal? Yup, they sure could. But, at minimum, the prior Senate HCR bill will be the law of the land as of tomorrow.

Please don't fall for the media spin and the "horserace" everyone has going on their blogs. That is mostly for purposes of getting viewers.

[Cha]

13. Well, I like your

take, Imajika. President Obama did say he thought it would pass..so here's to the suspenseful intrigue ending in a success for the HCR Bill, tomorrow, in the House.:toast:

[HughMoran]

16. Good post

I appreciate you peeling back the curtain of BS that can lead us to be nervous nellies.

[DCBob]

21. Yes, I think you are right.. Nancy has not missed a vote count yet.

Thanks for the reality check.

[Clio the Leo]

24. I will GLADLY take someone disagreeing with me on this one.....

.... nice to have someone talk me down. :)

[TheBigotBasher]

14. fingers

toes and hairs crossed. come on congress - do this for the poorest.

Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tossed to me.
I lift my lamp beside the golden door."

[Oregone]

19. Just wait till they come home to roost

[Jennicut]

20. I have been using this list for the last few days and posting it everywhere on DU. However,

some of those in the no column might actually be toss ups. Berry, Baird, Tanner, Dahlkemper, Driehaus, Kaptur, Rahall, Mollohan per this article are all still in play: http://www.rollcall.com/news/44442-1.html It depends on if they go for an executive order affirming that the bill would not permit federal funding of abortion.

[Inuca]

23. About Kaptur

I think I heard/read somewhere that she became a YES. Not sure though...

[quiller4]

29. Yes. Kaptur declared herself a "Yes" in two interviews yesterday.

[quiller4]

28. Baird declared himself a "Yes" on 3/15. Kaptur did in 3/20.

[Rage Inc.]

22. Agreed!

I know a couple of people who are already celebrating (!)

Me, I'll celebrate when the damn thing is signed into law!

[Clio the Leo]

25. @barackobama just Tweeted imploring supporters to call our Reps....

..... ugh, my stomach!

In the final hours before the House vote on health reform, your voice has extraordinary power. Call your representative:

http://twitter.com/BarackObama/status/10823203721

[quiller4]

26. The Hill has several confirmed "yeses" as "nos" including

Donnelly and Kaptur. They've been listing Baird and "undecided" when his office has been saying since Monday that Brian is a confirmed "Yes".

The Hill is never very accurate at this.