VA-05: Perriello Just May Survive

[ccharles000]

PPP (pdf) (2/5-10, likely voters)

Tom Perriello (D-inc): 44
Robert Hurt (R): 44
Undecided: 13

Tom Perriello (D-inc): 41
Robert Hurt (R): 12
Virgil Goode (I): 41
Undecided: 6

Tom Perriello (D-inc): 44
Robert Hurt (R): 27
Generic Teabagger (I): 19
Undecided: 10

Tom Perriello (D-inc): 46
Ken Boyd (R): 42
Undecided: 12

Tom Perriello (D-inc): 45
Jim McKelvey (R): 37
Undecided: 18

Tom Perriello (D-inc): 45
Michael McPadden (R): 36
Undecided: 19

Tom Perriello (D-inc): 44
Lawrence Verga (R): 34
Undecided: 21
(MoE: ±3.2%)

Mainstream media pundits have pretty much already left Rep. Tom Perriello for dead. Between having the narrowest margin of victory of any Democrat in 2008 (900-odd votes over then-Rep. Virgil Goode) and sitting in a rural R+5 district that went strongly for Bob McDonnell in November's gubernatorial race, he was already viewed as endangered -- and when he cast theoretically risky votes for cap and trade and health care reform instead of hiding under a pile of coats with the Blue Dogs, well, it was an open and shut case, right? Guess again: PPP finds Perriello tied with his strongest Republican opposition, state Sen. Robert Hurt, and winning rather convincingly against the assortment of other random Republicans. (As a bonus, PPP promises GOP primary numbers tomorrow, so we can see if Hurt, an establishment figure who's had a big target painted on his back by not just the teabaggers but also the CfG/Grover Norquist set, is getting hurt by the GOP schism.) Don't pop the bubbly yet, of course: Perriello's still well below the 50% safety mark.

One thing I love about PPP is how willing they are to try out every possible permutation, and they do that here, with a three-way against an unnamed tea party independent (although Generic Teabagger already has a name in this race... it's Bradley Rees), where Perriello effectively rides the split to victory over Hurt, and a three-way with ex-Rep. Virgil Goode as an independent (something he's threatened, although hasn't taken steps towards). There, it's actually a Perriello/Goode tie, with Hurt getting a woeful 12%. This is interesting, as Goode is basically functioning as a non-generic teabagger; if there's one guy out there who seems tailor-made for the Tea Party movement, it's Goode, who briefly served as an independent in between being a Dem (when first elected) and a GOPer, and whose odd, ideologically incoherent mix of libertarianism, populism, and xenophobic crackpottery seems like the teabagger template.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/6385/va05-perriello-just-may-survive

[VAliberal]

1. Good news

It gives me reason to hope. I'm in Perriello's district - he's a good rep. However - this section of Virginia definitely has its contingent of yellow flag waving, fundie, rapture ready, tea bagging whack jobs.

I hope Perriello can pull it out. If the vote is split on the right between a Pub and a Tea Bagger, perhaps he'll be able to do it again in '10.

[Jennicut]

2. Maybe because he didn't vote with the Blue Dogs so Dems still are enthusiastic about him?

If he wins it proves the Blue Dog strategy to win elections in red areas is terrible.

[Bleacher Creature]

3. +1,000

[jefferson_dem]

4. Excellent. Perriello's a good one.

Hoping he's able to hang on.