Fascinating in depth Gallup figures Obama widens approval 51-41. Updated by state

[grantcart]

http://www.gallup.com/tag/Presidential%2bJob%2bApproval.aspx





http://www.gallup.com/poll/116479/Barack-Obama-Presidential-Job-Approval.aspx








The results below, given state by state would seem to indicate an even greater approval for the President, with 47 states giving the President 50% or more approval, it seems like the aggregate would be much more than 51%, I am assuming that the state by state numbers reflect an aggregate for the entire year.

Also the President has a higher rating than the Democratic Party in 49 states.

The results below should give any Republican considerable pause in trying to map an electoral college victory over the President.




Democrats retain huge advantage on party ID





These results are based on aggregated data from Gallup Daily tracking in 2009, including interviews with more than 350,000 adults in all 50 states plus the District of Columbia. Gallup conducted at least 1,000 interviews in every state except Wyoming (878), North Dakota (968), Delaware (997), and the District of Columbia (632). Gallup interviewed more than 20,000 residents each in California, Texas, New York, and Pennsylvania.

Nationwide, party support shifted in a slightly more Republican direction in 2009 after a historically strong Democratic year in 2008. Overall, 49% of Americans in 2009 identified as Democrats or said they were independent but leaned to the Democratic Party, while 41% identified as Republicans or were Republican-leaning independents. That 8-point Democratic advantage compares to a 12-point, 52% to 40%, Democratic advantage in 2008.

Thus, even with the reduction in Democratic strength, the party still maintained a solid advantage over the Republicans nationally last year. It follows, then, that most states continued to be Democratic in their political orientation. (A table showing the full data for each state appears at the end of the article.)

[Deep13]

1. Per America: Republicans still suck.

Maybe that should be our 2010 message.

[timeforpeace]

46. 51% That's incredible! That's hugh! Better than Rasmussen's 44% but Gallup was lower than Rasmussen

the week before last.

[Cha]

55. Yeah, tough shit for you..suck it up.

[BlueIdaho]

2. Well I see we still have our work cut out for us in Idaho...

This state sucks.

[CanonRay]

9. How the hell did they ever elect Frank Church?

Did they all get zapped by some kind of stupid ray?

[BlueIdaho]

30. That was a long time ago...

Idaho used to have strong unions - our miners in the north were some of the first unionized workers on the west coast. So north Idaho's strong liberal core was mostly responsible for electing Frank Church, Cecil Andrus, and other fine Democrats. Unfortunately the unions backs were broken in the 1970's and the balance of political power shifted to the southern end of the state. An area filled with large corporate farms and Mormons. We have watched this state become ultra right wing as it plummets to the bottom of almost every quality of life category. We do rank first in one thing - the number of children living under the poverty line.

Something republicans in our state can really be proud of.

[maxsolomon]

50. Idaho sent it's Frank Church legacy up the River of No Return

into a Wilderness, where it still lingers in a hot spring.

[Jennicut]

3. 66% approval in CT and high in Mass, too. So why did Scott Brown win?

Are people more angry at Congress then Obama?

[Arkana]

12. Scott Brown won because Martha Coakley stunk.

Do some research on what she did for her "campaign" until about 2-3 weeks before the election.

[jenmito]

19. Yup-she ran the worst campaign (when she was running and not on vacation). And Brown

ran a great campaign and was able to fool people about who he was.

[Whisp]

31. what is her background. I don't have a clue who she is.

sure smells like something fishy in that election when all I hear is it appeared she didnt want to win.

who is she. who she pal around with?

[jenmito]

36. That's part of the problem. Hardly anybody knows who she is. She didn't even TRY to win.

She seemed to assume she was going to win just because she's a Dem. She was 30 points ahead since she was the default candidate. But then Brown got in and campaigned hard every day, put up an ad comparing himself to JFK, drove around in his truck, shook hands, and portrayed himself as a populist.

Coakley went on vacation, then gave a couple interviews, one where she said she saw no point in getting out and shaking hands, she made a huge mistake re: an ex-Red Sox pitcher, claiming he was a Yankees fan, etc.

[Whisp]

38. something not right.

she's probably a mole.

that whole mass thing feels orchestrated to me. something not right. but i'm always paranoid and cynical

[jenmito]

40. The only thing not right is

Coakley for thinking she had it in the bag. Having a 30-point lead and Ted Kennedy's seat could give you a false sense of security, I guess. She panicked too late.

[Arkana]

43. She's our state AG.

She had a stellar record of service in the post too, which makes her loss suck all the more.

[grantcart]

13. I think state figures are aggregate for the year

[jenmito]

17. The Dem. voters aren't motivated like they were in '08 (and before).

No matter how high Obama's approval, and no matter how big the advantage in # of Dem. voters, if the Dems. don't feel like getting out to vote, Repubs. will win.

[quantass]

4. Hmm, why is O > 50% considering little leadership or accomplishments AND all talk & obstructionism?

Sorry for the negative talk but I'm coming from what I see.

[Jennicut]

6. Because Congress likes to stall on every little thing, including both Dems and Rethugs

Obama is President, not King. Although it is beyond past time to get rid of the filibuster or change the rules on it. Or actually make the Rethugs filibuster for real.

[BolivarianHero]

28. The filibuster...

When used on African-Americans, it's been the verbal equivalent to a lynch mob. Get rid of it.

[grantcart]

7. While not agreeing with the premise of your question my answer to the high numbers

is that most of the country doesn't get involve in the details of what is happening (the discussion on DU is rarified highly informed discussion, even most 'political junkies' don't really follow the inside story) and there is a very firm base of the country that not only likes the President but trusts him.

No other leader will be able to match him on the trust factor.

If compared on a one on one basis the President's numbers would go up even more, IMHO.

[Scarsdale Vibe]

33. The stimulus bill was the most important legislation in several decades.

He could have gone on vacation for four years after passing the stimulus bill and he still would have accomplished more domestically than any president since LBJ. Perhaps they should have split it up into 100+ smaller bills and passed it over time to appease those with ADD.

If HCR passes in a form close to the House or Senate bills, this president and Congress will have accomplished more domestically in terms of progressive legislation than any president in history except FDR. But keep shitting on them.

[quiet.american]

5. What a nice way to start the week! Thanks for posting. nt

[rufus dog]

8. Good news

And I didn't get in on your unemployment rate on Election Day.

7.5%

[Psephos]

10. Old poll showing the SOTU bounce, which has now disappeared. Here's the fresh stuff.

http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/jobapproval-obama.php?xml=http://www.pollster.com/flashcharts/content/xml/Obama44JobApproval.xml&choices=Disapprove,Approve&phone=&ivr=&internet=&mail=&smoothing=&from_date=&to_date=&min_pct=&max_pct=&grid=&points=1&lines=1&colors=Disapprove-BF0014,Approve-000000,Undecided-68228B

Sorry to say, no good news for Obama here.

[Arkana]

14. These are state-by-states, not national polls.

Which are almost always reliably worse.

[Psephos]

20. true, but OP also cites the running-average national poll

This one: http://www.gallup.com/poll/116479/Barack-Obama-Presidential-Job-Approval.aspx That's what triggered my reply.

The state-by-state approach cited in the OP is interesting for cocktail talk but not very useful. Look at a county-level map. The red-state/blue-state paradigm is a fallacy. Generally speaking, urban areas are blue and show approval well over 50%, suburban and rural are red and show approval well under 50%. States get painted red or blue based on their ratio of city-dwellers to noncity-dwellers. In other words, it's largely an accident of geography.

[Drunken Irishman]

23. Do you even know what you're talking about?

www.gallup.com

Pres. Obama 51% approval to 41% disapproval.

[Psephos]

26. See post 10. Follow the link. n/t

[Drunken Irishman]

29. So you don't know what you're talking about.

Your link has nothing to do with Gallup. The OP showed the newest Gallup poll, which has Pres. Obama at 51-41 as of TODAY. Not outdated and it certainly isn't an old poll that happened during the SOTU bounce two weeks ago. :eyes:

In fact, the link you show is actually OUTDATED. :rofl:

[MadBadger]

32. That isnt outdated, though the state polls are outdated. That said...

this person still doesnt know what they are talking about.

[Drunken Irishman]

34. I'm not talking about the state polls.

I'm talking about the 51-41 poll mentioned in the OP. The state polls are for the entire 2009 year. It counts a good chunk of support Obama gained early in the year. I don't take them as a true gauge of his support at the state level.

But to suggest his approval rating has slipped in Gallup since the SOTU is factually wrong.

[Psephos]

37. Read the second line of the poll list in the link I posted.

It is the Gallup poll you alluded to, and it shows 51 approve, 41 disapprove.

Go ahead, try it. ;)

The link to pollster.com that I posted is current as of today. A running average of major polls is more useful and more valid than a single poll.

[Drunken Irishman]

44. Your link doesn't show anything.

It shows a basic average of two major polls: Gallup & Rasmussen. Both off set each other. The only other polls used there are Democracy Corps (which came out on the 4th!), a FOX poll that came out on the 3rd and a Marist College from the 3rd, as well. Those aren't updated poll numbers, my friend.

The only two polls being used on a regular basis in this graph are Rasmussen & Gallup. Both show extremes.

Nice try, though. ;)

[Psephos]

45. Then you're not following the proper link.

Below is a block copy of the tracking polls since January 1, 2010. The actual page goes back the whole year. The idea that pollster's tracking average list is a "basic average of two major polls: Gallup and Rasmussen" is facially wrong.

Pollster.com's "poll of polls" is what the pros use in Washington. Google if you don't believe it. Trend lines are what the game is all about. I say that at risk of sounding painfully obvious.

(BTW, this February 8 Marist poll speaks volumes about where independents are currently at. They're the demographic that will matter most on election day. http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/US100201/Obama/Complete%20February%208,%202010%20USA%20Poll%20Release%20and%20Tables.pdf The bottom line is that two independents disapprove for every one that approves. Democratic success in the coming election cycle depends on reversing this trend.)

http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/jobapproval-obama.php?xml=http://www.pollster.com/flashcharts/content/xml/Obama44JobApproval.xml&choices=Disapprove,Approve&phone=&ivr=&internet=&mail=&smoothing=&from_date=&to_date=&min_pct=&max_pct=&grid=&points=1&lines=1&colors=Disapprove-BF0014,Approve-000000,Undecided-68228B

Pollster Dates N/Pop Approve Disapprove Undecided
Rasmussen 2/5-7/10 1500 LV 46 54 -
Gallup 2/5-7/10 1500 A 51 41 -
Rasmussen 2/2-4/10 1500 LV 46 53 -
Gallup 2/2-4/10 1500 A 49 44 -
Democracy Corps (D) 2/2-4/10 805 LV 47 47 -
FOX 2/2-3/10 900 RV 46 47 7
Marist College 2/1-3/10 910 RV 44 47 9
YouGov/Polimetrix 1/31-2/2/10 1000 A 46 48 6
Rasmussen 1/30-2/1/10 1500 LV 50 49 -
Gallup 1/30-2/1/10 1500 A 51 42 -
Zogby (Internet) 1/29-2/1/10 2525 LV 50 49 1
PPP (D) 1/29-31/10 584 RV 48 49 4
Ipsos/McClatchy 1/28-31/10 1127 A 50 46 4
Rasmussen 1/27-29/10 1500 LV 49 51 -
Gallup 1/27-29/10 1500 A 47 47 -
Rasmussen 1/24-26/10 1500 LV 46 53 -
Gallup 1/24-26/10 1500 A 48 46 -
YouGov/Polimetrix 1/24-26/10 1000 A 45 49 7
NBC/WSJ 1/23-25/10 800 A 50 44 6
Harris (internet) 1/18-25/10 2576 A 40 60 -
CNN 1/22-24/10 1009 A 49 50 0
Gallup 1/21-23/10 1500 A 48 47 -
Rasmussen 1/21-23/10 1500 LV 46 54 -
NPR 1/20-23/10 800 LV 49 48 3
McLaughlin (R)/National Review (R) 1/19-20/10 1000 LV 50 46 5
Rasmussen 1/18-20/10 1500 LV 47 52 -
Gallup 1/18-20/10 1500 A 49 44 -
ARG 1/17-20/10 1100 A 51 45 4
PPP (D) 1/18-19/10 1151 RV 46 47 7
YouGov/Polimetrix 1/16-19/10 1000 A 46 47 7
Zogby (Internet) 1/15-18/10 1963 LV 49 50 1
Gallup 1/15-17/10 1500 A 50 43 -
Rasmussen 1/15-17/10 1500 LV 47 52 -
CBS News 1/14-17/10 1090 A 50 40 10
AP-GfK 1/12-17/10 1008 A 56 42 2
ABC/Post 1/12-15/10 1083 A 53 44 2
Rasmussen 1/12-14/10 1500 LV 47 52 -
Gallup 1/12-14/10 1500 A 49 45 -
NBC/WSJ 1/10-14/10 1002 A 48 43 9
FOX 1/12-13/10 900 RV 50 42 8
YouGov/Polimetrix 1/6-12/10 1000 A 45 48 8
Rasmussen 1/9-11/10 1500 LV 46 53 -
Gallup 1/9-11/10 1500 A 50 42 -
Ipsos/McClatchy 1/7-11/10 1336 A 52 45 2
Democracy Corps (D) 1/7-11/10 1200 LV 50 46 4
Quinnipiac 1/5-11/10 1767 RV 45 45 10
CNN 1/8-10/10 1021 A 51 48 1
CBS News 1/6-10/10 1216 A 46 41 13
Pew 1/6-10/10 1504 A 49 42 10
Rasmussen 1/6-8/10 1500 LV 46 53 -
Gallup 1/6-8/10 1500 A 52 41 -
Allstate/National Journal 1/3-7/10 1200 A 47 45 8
Rasmussen 1/3-5/10 1500 LV 49 51 -
Gallup 1/3-5/10 1500 A 51 44 -
YouGov/Polimetrix 1/2-5/10 1000 A 45 46 8
Gallup 12/29/09-1/2/10 1500 A 51 43 -

[Drunken Irishman]

48. Your link states what I am stating!

Look at the dates on those polls! You see, right?

THESE are the only polls from the month of February:

Rasmussen 2/5-7/10 1500 LV 46 54 -
Gallup 2/5-7/10 1500 A 51 41 -
Rasmussen 2/2-4/10 1500 LV 46 53 -
Gallup 2/2-4/10 1500 A 49 44 -
Democracy Corps (D) 2/2-4/10 805 LV 47 47 -
FOX 2/2-3/10 900 RV 46 47 7
Marist College 2/1-3/10 910 RV 44 47 9

Of that, only Gallup & Rasmussen are updated daily.

FOX's poll is from the third! It's the eighth! The third was Wednesday.

Democracy Corps' poll was on the 4th - and only sampled 805 LV (not RV). That is already outdated. That Marist College poll is old, too.

Do you not understand what I am saying? It's not hard to grasp here.

What good is a poll from January when calculating approval today? And the sample size of the polls from February is pretty damn small. No ABC, CBS or MSNBC polls. CNN isn't there, either. Pew? Nope. Pretty small list.

So my point stands, you're wrong. :)

[Psephos]

49. ??? You think all these national polls are conducted daily?

Do you know how much those cost? Especially the polls that use high-validity methods of gathering their data?

You say that "THESE are the only polls from the month of February" - FEBRUARY? It's only been February for a friggin' week! omg

LOOK AT THE AGGREGATE TRENDLINE.

The tracking "poll of polls" is what the pros are looking at. Also, the Marist poll I linked was issued TODAY, and it says something critically important for what's going to happen in November. Those who use mockery or an ideological lens on this important data are part of the problem, not part of the solution.

[Drunken Irishman]

52. I never said that.

I just said the polls haven't been updated much. Since February started, there have only been a handful of polls out. Two are daily. The rest? Unknown or limited. No NBC, CBS or ABC polls. No CNN. No major polls outside of Gallup have been released.

I don't care what the polls of polls say. Thank you, though, for proving my point that site has issues! Glad you see it. :hi:

[Psephos]

56. eol

[MadBadger]

27. The OP is talking only about Gallup. And their National poll today is 51-41

[Psephos]

35. Yes, as shown in the second line of the list of polls I linked.

Not sure where the confusion is coming from here.

My larger point was that a rolling average of the major polls gives a better sense of approval trends than a single poll. Hardly a controversial point.

[timeforpeace]

47. So the only poll showing over 50% is Gallup? 47% overall, is that right?

[Psephos]

54. Yes, 47% overall is the current number

That's a regression trend line number, which is more meaningful ("valid") than a simple average. There are always a few outlier polls which have the number higher or lower, but that's why a scatter plot with an RTL is valuable - it helps you see the data through the noise.

Here's a decent explanation of why a regression trend line is useful. Scroll down to the third section:

http://www.pollster.com/faq/map_faq.php

[Arkana]

11. Ohio? Ohio is STILL solid Dem?

Wow. He could just win the dark blue states and STILL win in 2012.

Also...ARKANSAS?????? What the everloving FUCK?

[ohiodemocratic]

22. The sample is made up of "adults"

And the numbers are good. But likely voter and registered voter samples tell a more accurate picture. Many hispanics, for example, cannot even vote because they're not naturalized American citizens yet, but they count in a sample of adults. Young people are less likely to vote than older people, so they have more representation in adult samples too.

[avaistheone1]

15. Poll says Massachusetts very strong for Obama.

but sent Brown to the Senate. Obama also campaigned late in the race for Coakley. So this poll is not promising for the midterms for Democrats using the same logic.

[Arkana]

16. ...

:banghead:

READ UP ON WHAT HAPPENED IN MASSACHUSETTS.

Please, I beg you. Do this before posting something else about Massachusetts.

Voters responded to Brown because he worked to get their votes.

[avaistheone1]

18. I have read

plenty on the Massachusetts vote and most of my famiy and friends are life-long Massachusetts Dems.

I know what went down there. I don't need the spin or the Monday morning quarterbacking on that race.

[Arkana]

42. I happen to live there.

So I had a front-seat view of the awful campaign our guy (girl?) ran. That was the reason she lost.

[Dollface]

21. Let's all move to Wyoming and vote

[Drunken Irishman]

24. Wyoming only has like three electoral votes. Texas would be a better option.

[MadBadger]

25. Those numbers arent exactly relevant.

They are based off of an entire year. Early on, of course Obama's numbers were in the clouds and they eventually had to come back to Earth. It would be much better to see this information from a two month span of December 2009-Jan 2010

[grantcart]

39. The daily approval is current you are right about the rest

If you take into account that they yearly averages then they still have relevence when you compare them with the yearly averages of Republicans.

[secondwind]

41. I REALLY needed to see this! Thanks and K&R

[niceypoo]

51. Approval ratings dont matter until right before an election

Never understood why people would worry about them 1 year in.

[grantcart]

53. The breakdown by state and identification by party are very useful on

a long term basis.

Approval ratings have a great deal of influence on getting legislation passed although your right they have little to say about the next presidential election, in which case a national approval poll without state by state numbers would be useless anyway.

[TomCADem]

57. I Think It Is Important So That Democrats Don't Try To Run As GOP-Lite

The media is going to play 24/7 the theme that the Brown election signals that the American people are really conservative, and President Obama does not have support for financial reform and health care reform.

[cliffordu]

58. OMFG......West virginny is LOST!! WE'RE DOOOMED!!!

Doomed I say!!!!!!


:rofl:

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

60. At least we don't elect teabaggers to the senate here

My state has its issues, but we have one up on Alabamachusetts there.

[cliffordu]

61. Point taken.

Ever notice how that banjo music from "Deliverance" plays every time that fucker gets up to a podium??

I had a set of step-grandparents that were from W.Virginia...hardest working people I ever met.

[Kalun D]

59. Forget About Individual Polls

Look at the running average of all the major polls.

2-08-10
47.9 approve
47.0 disapprove

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/