Off The Charts-A Recovery That’s Factory-Built and Gaining Speed

[babylonsister]

A Recovery That’s Factory-Built and Gaining Speed

By FLOYD NORRIS
Published: February 5, 2010



A GLOBAL recovery in manufacturing appears to be accelerating. Most manufacturers around the world are reporting an increase in output and new orders, both of which plunged in late 2008 and early 2009 as a credit crisis spurred fears of a new Depression.

The sharpness of the rebound, reflected in the indexes created by the Institute for Supply Management in the United States, and recreated in many other countries by Markit, could indicate that the American economy is not in line for another slow recovery, as happened after the two most recent downturns, in the early 1990s and the early 2000s.

That strength was also reflected in the gross national product estimate for the final quarter of 2009, with an annual rate of growth of 5.7 percent, the fastest for any quarter in more than six years. And on Friday, the Labor Department reported that the unemployment rate fell to 9.7 percent in January. It added that while the entire economy lost 20,000 jobs, there was an increase of 11,000 jobs in manufacturing employment — the first such gain in three years.

“Surprisingly, given the predominant sentiment the United States is in a subpar recovery, the current recovery in real G.D.P. has been right in line with the strong recoveries which took place in the past,” said Jim Paulsen, the chief investment strategist of Wells Capital Management, an investment arm of Wells Fargo, pointing to the recoveries in the early 1980s and the mid-1970s.

more...

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/06/business/economy/06charts.html?ref=economy

[AllentownJake]

1. I'm looking forward to the actual 4th quarter GDP numbers

Which will come out in March before I take off my Bear hat.

As for unemployment, the BLS survey/poll is giving conflicting data to other sources.

The employment situation in this country is like the past 10 years didn't happen with 29 million more people, and everyone having more debt.

Forgive me if I'm skeptical. However the strategy of handing free money to the people that caused the crisis, seems to be a little silly. Could be wrong, they could have all found Religion.

[bigdarryl]

2. Based on this news we are headed for a FULL RECOVERY this year

the unemployment rate should be dropping to around 7.5% by the midterm elections

[Kdillard]

3. k and r. Interesting

[DrToast]

4. Krugman and the naysayers were wrong

As I've said they would be. Once again ECRI gets it right.