Former Peru president to run for top job again

[Judi Lynn]

Former Peru president to run for top job again
By Naomi Mapstone in Lima

Published: November 11 2010 01:27 | Last updated: November 11 2010 01:27

Alejandro Toledo, the former Peruvian president who lead opposition to the now-jailed president Alberto Fujimori, has declared his candidacy for April’s presidential elections.

Mr Toledo, a former shoe shine boy who went on to gain a PhD in Economics from Stanford University in the US, has promised he will do a better job of spreading the wealth being generated from Peru’s commodities-led economy.

“I will run for the presidency again to build a better life with more stable prices, decent jobs and better pay for all Peruvians, particularly the underprivileged and excluded,” he said.

Poverty in Peru fell from 48.6 per cent to 34.8 per cent according to government statistics, and extreme poverty from 17.1 per cent to 11.5 per cent.

More:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1b09bb44-ed30-11df-8cc9-00144feab49a.html#axzz155BOLJ82

[Peace Patriot]

1. Well, clearly Toledo is the Financial Times' candidate. This is quite a puff peace for him.

It remains to be seen whether his promises of help for the vast poor majority, which has not benefited from "free trade for the rich" (surprise, surprise!) are real or are hot air (like the corrupt Garcia's promises).

This article does answer one question I've had about Peru--the relative positions of candidates for the presidential election, and in particular how Ollanta Humala is doing. Here's FT on it:

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"A poll published by Datum International this week put Mr Toledo third with 16 per cent support, behind former mayor of Lima Luis Castañeda, with 26 per cent, and Keiko Fujimori, daughter of former president Fujimori, with 24 per cent.

"Ollanta Humala, the leftist who lost to current president Alan García in the 2006 election by a wafer-thin margin, is in fourth place with 11 per cent.

"Independent Mercedes Araoz, former finance minister, has also joined the fray with the endorsement of the ruling Apra coalition, intensifying what is expected to be a fierce battle for the centre ground." (My note: presumably a low percent.)

---

Total: 77%, with about a quarter of respondents undecided and/or distributed among minor candidates.

So, Ollanta Humala and FT's candidate Toledo have comparable support, at this point. Humala represents the poor majority and Toledo pretends (?) to. The far rightwing is doing better in early support--Fujimora, who represents the wealthiest class and probably has adherents from Peru's new "free trade for the rich"-enriched urban elite, at 24%, against someone whom I don't know much about--Lima's mayor, Castañeda, with 26%--the leader at this point. (Various Google hits describe him as "center-right.") The total on the right is therefore 50%, currently. But I doubt very much that pollsters adequately canvas poor peasants and barrio dwellers.

These %'s will change. Fujimora's support is probably partly due to READY MONEY to buy visibility, to con 'nouveau riche' women voters and to try to distance herself from her father's blood-soaked regime. I can't imagine that Peruvians will choose to return to the days of the Fujimora dictatorship. (Isn't her father under indictment for crimes against humanity in Peru?)

In the Garcia/Ollanta election, Ollanta bumped the rightwing candidate out of the race in the first round, and then almost beat Garcia. I expect something similar to happen to Fujimora in the first round. Humala came from way behind, before. 11% now doesn't mean that much. But Toleda may be the corporate-choice to bump out Humala--leaving the voters a choice of the far right vs. the center-right. As U.S. "free trade for the rich" in Peru is very important to U.S. multinationals and war profiteers, there is probably lots of CIA money in circulation to prevent a leftist win. Humala is poor and almost won the presidency anyway. They don't want that to happen.

[social_critic]

2. Humala would be really bad for Peru

Imagine, another military dude who follows the Chavez line. Hopefully Peruvians will take note of Venezuela's economy. It's not doing well.

[Peace Patriot]

5. Your kneejerk RW viewpoint blinds you to the facts....

Evo Morales is far more of a factor in Peru than Hugo Chavez, and Morales' endorsement of Ollanta Humala last time around was decisive in Humala gaining 15% more of the vote in the final election round and almost beating Garcia. The remote rural and mountainous Indigenous came out of the hills to vote for Ollanta. These are tribespeople whom I doubt respect European-imposed artificial borders. THEY did not interpret Morales' (or Chavez's) endorsement of Humala as "outside interference." They voted for Humala and almost won him the presidency. Morales is the FIRST INDIGENOUS president of Bolivia (and the first 100% Indigenous president in Latin America, I believe). That is extremely important to nearby Indigenous like those in Peru. (Humala is 100% Indigenous as well.) Your remark about "another military dude" is meaningless--and I don't know what you mean to imply by it. Chavez got his education in the military because he was poor and when he rebelled against the slaughter of hundreds of peaceful protestors in Venezuela, when he was a young officer, he took full responsibility for that failed rebellion and spent two years in prison, during which time he became a hero to the poor majority in Venezuela, who elected him president some years later. So what if Humala also has military experience? This is common enough with poor youth in Latin America, who have no other educational opportunities and no decent jobs when the RW rules the country. Does military service disqualify someone from office? That is a strange view.

[rabs]

3. Look out for Araoz

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_gr41FEso034/SPd56GIIyNI/AAAAAAAASK0/poRukOPALI8/s400/Mercedes+Araoz.jpg


"Independent Mercedes Araoz, former finance minister, has also joined the fray with the endorsement of the ruling Apra coalition, intensifying what is expected to be a fierce battle for the centre ground." (My note: presumably a low percent.)

-----------------

You can throw out all those poll numbers in the FT article. Garcia has handpicked Araoz to be the APRA candidate so she will almost automatically jump into the fray with Castaneda and Keiko Fujimori. At this early stage Toledo and Ollanta look like also-rans.

APRA (Wiki)

APRA was originally founded by Víctor Raúl Haya de la Torre in Mexico City on 7 May 1924 with aspirations to becoming a continent-wide party, and it subsequently influenced a number of other Latin American political movements, including Bolivia's Revolutionary Nationalist Movement (Movimiento Nacionalista Revolucionario, MNR) and Costa Rica's National Liberation Party (Partido Liberación Nacional, PLN).

It is the oldest surviving political party in Peru and one of the best established. APRA is as much a social phenomenon as a political movement, with a membership whose loyalty to the party has been unwavering for several generations.

APRA initially espoused anti-imperalism, Pan-Americanism, international solidarity and economic nationalism. Years of repression and clandestinity, as well as Haya de la Torre's single-handed dominance of the party, resulted in striking sectarian and hierarchical traits. The party's structure and its hold over its rank and file proved more lasting than its original program.

Opportunistic ideological swings to the right by Haya de la Torre in the 1950s, in exchange for attaining legal status for the party, resulted in an exodus of some of APRA's most talented young leaders to the Marxist left.

More on APRa

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alianza_Popular_Revolucionaria_Americana

Link I posted a few days ago on Araoz

http://www.livinginperu.com/news/13478

[Judi Lynn]

4. Sounds horrible! Hope there will still be time enough for a good candidate to step forward.

Even the fact she remotely would consider an alliance with Ms. Fujimori is awful.

Thanks for the overview.