Electricity Emergency Declared in Venezuela, Special Measures Taken

[Wilms]

Electricity Emergency Declared in Venezuela, Special Measures Taken

February 10th 2010, by Tamara Pearson - Venezuealanalysis.com

Such measures include taking urgent steps so that both private and public entities pay debts owed to Corpoelec, an acceleration of the installation of energy infrastructure, adopting economic and technical measures to conserve the electricity service, and making agreements with "independent national or foreign providers to buy electricity exclusively to address national demand."

The decree instructs the ministers of education, higher education, communication, and electricity to elaborate an education campaign around saving energy.

snip

During his announcement late last night Chavez also said the government has decided to reward and penalize electricity use, with residential users (defined as using less than 500kWh) who reduce consumption by 10-20% receiving a 25% discount on their bill, and a 50% discount for over 20% reduction. Those who don't reduce use by 10% will receive a 75% surcharge, and those who increase their usage by 10% will receive a 100% surcharge, and by 20%, a 200% surcharge applies.

The commercial sector, Chavez said, should reduce its consumption by 20% in relation to the same month last year -- 10% in the first month and 10% more in the next. Failure to comply will result in service suspension of 24-48 hours, and if the violation is repeated, an indefinite suspension.

snip

According to Rodriguez, the Venezuelan government has increased electricity generation by 52% over its 11 years of management and reduced the demand on the main hydropower station from 87% to 70%.

Initially, at the beginning of January, the government launched an energy-saving plan, involving early shop closing times, replacing incandescent light bulbs with fluorescent light bulbs, and penalizing electricity bills by 20% when high energy users failed to reduce usage by 20%. However, the plan only saw a reduction of 4% in total energy use, and as the drought continues, the government explained that more drastic measures are necessary.

http://www.venezuelanalysis.com/news/5127

[Judi Lynn]

1. Interesting article: "..increased electricity generation by 52% over its 11 years of management .."

I believe I've heard that there are also more people living in the cities now than there were 11 years ago, as in urban migration. That would certainly create new demand problems.

Thanks for the information.

[protocol rv]

2. It's a lie

Electricity generation capacity hasn't increased by 52 % in 11 years. Note the word capacity versus generation. The capacity installed by previous governments was a lot higher than needed, there was a lot of spare capacity. What these guys did was eat into the spare capacity, to the point that when the drought struck, there was insufficient spare. Analyze that.

[Wilms]

3. When you put up some credible data, I'll analyze THAT. n/t

[protocol rv]

6. Venezuela's Electricity Generation Capacity - 1999 to 2009

This is from

http://www.electriahorro.com/HTML/Pages/Secondary/EA_VzlaGeneracionFS.html?EA_VzlaGeneracion.html~mainFrame

It was written in 1999, reported the capacity - in 1999 - to be 19419 MW. It also said there were ongoing projects to install an additional
2800 MW, 2200 MW by public enterprises, and 600 MW by the private sector.

Quote:

"Actualmente el país dispone de 19.419 MW de capacidad instalada en sus diferentes plantas. Antes del año 2003, según las previsiones actuales, se instalarán 2200 MW adicionales por parte del Sector Público y 600 MW por parte del Sector Privado."


The following website confirms the figures - it's a different source, has slightly different numbers, but it's close enough

http://jaimevp.tripod.com/Elect_Vzla/Cadafe/sistema01.htm

Now, a government source reports at the following website

http://jaimevp.tripod.com/Elect_Vzla/Cadafe/sistema01.htm

an increase of 4623 MW in 10 years, 1999-2009. The article in question lies, claiming they doubled capacity, but that's not the point, the point is the increase was 4623/19419, and that's not doubling capacity. Nor is it 50 %, it was about 24 % - and quite a bit of that was already underway when they took over in 1999 (look up at the 2800 MW they had already under way as per the first reference).

In 2008, they claimed in the following report

http://www.guia.com.ve/noticias/?id=23635

They had a plan to increase capacity from 25000 to 33000. Now, if we add 19419 plus 4623 we get around 24,000 MW, not 25,000. But it's close enough for now - it roughly confirms the following

Existing in 1999 - around 19.4
Projects under way - 2.8
Projects started by Chavez government 1.8 (or 2.8)
Status in early 2009 - 24 or 25 (units are thousand MW)

I guess you can say they don't know how to keep their lies consistent.

Now, to complicate matters even further, these are installed capacities -and the interconnected system never works at full capacity - it's impossible. Even if the plants were all working 100 %, the transmission system won't allow it (read the second reference and if you know enough about electricity work out the numbers yourself).

What has really happened is that new investments have been delayed, given low priority, or made in the wrong places with the wrong technology. And maitenance has been very poor, therefore the installed capacity isn't available, not even close to it. They got caught with their pants down.

Now all we hear is propaganda, outright lies, distortions.

For those of you who are Americans, it's like Bush and Cheney with their WMDs, there was no lie they wouldn't make up - and the American media, from Fox to the NY Times to the "left wing" media mostly went along, just like they mostly went along when Clinton wanted to have his little war in the Balkans in 1999.

Wake up, copper top.

[ChangoLoa]

7. Constant lies from the Venezuelan govt with stats

They chose to fight propaganda with more propaganda. Problem is, when you check the state's statistical institute (INE), the lies become evident.

I remember this one, where the vice-president was announcing how Venezuela had increased school registration by 320% (!), when in fact it was 21.4%. The "fact" was announced in DU as a great achievement. Of course, the chavistas in DU saw the numbers but didn't comment them. As usual when reality is inconvenient.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=405&topic_id=26599

[Wilms]

10. Complicated indeed.

Can we find a complete set of data, let alone two for comparison? Likely not.

Here's one that seems to confirm the VZAnalysis claim of 50% increased generation. You've noted above your understanding of the difference between it and capacity. http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/country/country_energy_data.cfm?fips=VE

The data shows consumption increasing at an even slope, sharper than that of installed capacity which also shows an even slope except for aggressive installation in the early 80's.

Like lots of places, consumption and capacity are on a collision course.

[protocol rv]

12. Increased generation is a distortion of facts

The comment hides the fact that most of the increased generation (the actual KWH delivered) comes from generators installed BEFORE Chavez became president. It also covers up the reality we have, that maintenance of the system has been terrible. I realize you have a religious zeal to defend government incompetence, and will continue to twist and turn to avoid facing this harsh reality. I don't think you are doing anybody a favor, those of us who happen to think the government is incompetent won't be swayed by figures we know are hot air. And the government doesn't serve its own cause by continuing to be incompetent and hiding the truth. Do you realize what's coming next after this electricity crisis? Oil production will drop and national income will suffer.

Why? Because Chavez uses PDVSA to solve everything, from food to power generation. PDVSA is distracted on top of having a weak workforce, and the budget for generation is now taking away from PDVSA's investment budget.

What are we going to do when oil production drops below 2 million barrels per day, when we consume so much here, and a portion of exports are also sent to Cuba, China, and other countries which don't pay or pay very little? What about the natural gas? We have the reserves, but we depend on Colombian imports, and our own gas production is not increasing. What is going to happen to us when we can't grow our own food, and import so much, and we don't have the money from the oil to pay for it?

[Wilms]

15. OK. Now that I provided data showing that the article wasn't "lying", you go linkless.

Thanks for your opinion piece, though.

[Peace Patriot]

4. Protocol rv, your racism against the Indigenous has discredited you. Other DUers should know

In Comment #36, here...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=405x30994

Your comments about the "rainforest Chernobly" in Ecuador--the Chevron-Texaco toxic oil spill the size of Rhode Island, which has destroyed fisheries, rivers and streams and the living of 30,000 Indigenous people in the Amazon forest--and your racist remark, that the charges against Chevron should be disregarded because they were "presented by an Indian," taint all your other comments on Latin American issues. You are an oil corporation apologist. And your remarks are so ignorant, uninformed and so like the crap put out by Chevron's 12 P.R. firms--which they hired to discredit the Indigenous who filed suit against them for damages and cleanup--that your views have no credibility whatsoever.

In fact, I advise other DUers to use my Rule No. 1 from the Bush Junta as a guide to determining the truth of your statements: To wit, whatever you assert, the opposite is the truth.

Thus, we can surmise that energy generation has, in fact, increased by 52% in 11 years, and that the information that you leave out--Venezuela's sizzling economic growth rate--nearly 10% over the five year period, 2003 to 2008, with the most growth in the private sector--is what has "eaten into the spare capacity." After the Chavez government and the Venezuelan people overcame your lot's rightwing coup attempt in 2002 and crippling oil bosses' strike in 2003, the economy took off, due to the extraordinary steadiness and good management of the Chavez government, combined with high oil prices, the profits from which the Chavez government plowed back into the economy, with social programs--education, health care, food subsidies and other bootstrapping for the poor--loans/grants to small businesses and co-ops, and to new farmers, and investment in local manufacturing and in national and regional infrastructure (such as the new Orinoco Bridge between Venezuela and Brazil). This explosive growth is the key factor in both energy consumption and inflation (often the case with worker-friendly economic growth)--but false assertions such as you often make--so like the crapola from Chevron-Texaco's 12 P.R. firms--leave out that part--the economic growth. Then the drought hit. Bad timing. Yeah, they should have built more electrical capacity. They didn't. They fired the guy in charge of the energy program. Now they're trying to fix it. So what?

Why is this such a big deal to the rightwing tyrants and multinational corporations, and their corpo-fascist press, and to rightwing DU bloggers--all of whom want the Chavez government to fail? Countries have problems. Good governments sometimes don't anticipate them. Good governments then try to fix the problems. That's all this is. California has had blackouts--and a Bushwhack-connected energy company, Enron, stealing its $10 billion government budget surplus. New York and other states have had blackouts, brownouts and all sorts of energy problems. Why is Venezuela's government not anticipating a problem, and then trying to fix the problem, so bad? It's not bad--it's just normal. And I'd much rather have a leftist government in charge of the problem because the solution will then most likely be fair to everyone--and not an opportunity for private energy profiteers to gouge ratepayers, steal taxpayers' money and destroy "the commons."

It will probably be beneficial to Venezuela, in the long term, to cut energy use. Everybody needs to do this. They are being forced to, by the drought. But I think they will end up being glad that they did.

[protocol rv]

5. You're desperate

LOL

[Judi Lynn]

8. Peace Patriot has always been patient, amazingly patient.

I've found it's deficient right-wingers who are focused on immediate gratification, have short attention spans, a total lack of self-control, low frustration threshholds, who are defective enough to blow up and attack others.

It's a matter of character.

[protocol rv]

13. Interesting

And you don't attack? That's interesting. I assume you meant to say I am focused on immediate gratification, have a short attention span, lack self control, have a low frustration threshold, and I'm also deffective because I said he was desperate? He is desperate. Keeps cut and pasting the same material over and over, as if it were a mantra that protects him from the truth.

[Peace Patriot]

9. I am not at all desperate, dear. I feel quite confident that a government that has enjoyed

near 60% (and sometimes more than 60%) approval ratings throughout its tenure, can solve problems. They solved the problems of recovering from your lot's coup attempt. They solved the problems of the oil bosses' strike. They solved the problems of multinational oil corporations blackmailing and robbing Venezuela. They have cut poverty in half, and an extreme poverty by 70%. They have doubled high school and higher education enrollment. They are providing health care to all. They just negotiated new oil contracts with 8 corporations from as many countries, on Venezuela's terms. And they ended up, after five years of amazing economic growth, with low unemployment, low debt, good credit and $50 billion in international cash reserves--with which to face, and cushion Venezuela against, the Bushwhacks' Financial 9/11.

They have a great record--which has been reflected in the opinion polls and election results all along. I expect them to be able to handle the drought crisis. You and your buddy rightwingers and oil corp apologists are the ones who are desperate. You want to use the drought crisis to bring down the government and you fear that Venezuelan voters will not be fooled and there is no way to rig the election in Venezuela. You also fear that your slander campaign against the Chavez government will fail here and that may interfere with U.S. government support if you decide to take desperate measures to restore rule by the rich elite in Venezuela. That is why you bother to visit a progressive forum to spread corpo-fascist propaganda, your racism and your disinformation here. Well, it is perhaps a measure of how much good the Chavez government has done that such efforts are mounted to lie about it. Again, you lost me with your racist remark on Ecuador's Indigenous struggle against Chevron-Texaco's horrors. You are now in the category of stupid Bushwhack tea-bagger. Everything you say should be presumed false, and ill intended, until proven otherwise.

I think you are counting on people not being aware of it. I am doing what I can to make sure they are aware of it. You are the one who is desperate, as all racists are--desperate to assert your racial "superiority" over others, and also desperate to call others "big losers" (which you just did to Mel Zelaya) to build up your own self-importance by association with the "winners"--the Honduran fascists who are sending death squads to kill leftist activists. Such "losers," the dead. You like that power of the 'winner'--no matter what means are used to 'win.'

I am not going to let you get away with that racist remark. To me, it is relevant to everything you assert. It tells me who you are. Big slip-up, protocol rv!

[protocol rv]

14. Chevron Texaco's horror's?

Could you explain to us, specifically, what are these Chevron Texaco horrors in Ecuador? What are the proofs? Don't show me another flick of an Indian complaining. I want to see proof. What have they presented in court? I looked up the case in Google, here's what Chevron-Texaco has to say about it:

http://www.chevron.com/documents/pdf/texacopetroleumecuadorlawsuit.pdf

Here's what the Washington Post says about it:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/04/27/AR2009042703717.html

Here's npr's take:

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=103233560

I'd like to add a personal note, I'm from Maracaibo, and I talked to older Venezuelans who worked in the area in the 1980's and 1990's. They tell me the problem appeared when the state oil company took over from Chevron. I don't think the case is valid. I'm not a Chevron employee, nor do I hold their stock, I just happen to think you are barking up the wrong tree.

[EFerrari]

11. No, she's right. n/t

[protocol rv]

16. Latest update on electric crisis

Dam level is at 254 meters above sea level. The critical level is 240 meters. The last weekly drop reported in the papers showed one meter loss in seven days. At this rate, if it doesn't rain, we have 14 weeks left.

We have three variables to influence events:

1. Consumption reduction. Can be carried out by harsher power cuts. Many businesses are starting to close down at least one day per week, others abandoning work shifts, work in the dark, air conditioning turned off. But the 20 % goal for reduction hasn't been reached yet. Yesterday was very hot, so it's likely those who had power were running their air conditioners. This isn't a society known for its selflessness.

2. Rain. We need a lot of rain. Thus far, it's as expected, there's little rain. We don't see much rain in the dry season. Hopefully it'll star raining in two weeks. I saw a graph prepared by EDELCA which showed this happened in 2001-3. But back in those days, the electric power plants were well maintained, and the population was smaller, so the problem didn't become a crisis. I also saw a website prepared by Edelca in 2008 which claimed we were about to have a crisis, and called for many measures. One thing it mentioned was that the governments (both pre and post Chavez) were allowing people and companies to cut trees in the Caroni watershed, which reduced the amount of water retention in the soil. I think the Venezuelan experts knew this problem was coming, all we needed was a harsh dry season, and we would be in trouble. But nobody listened to them.

3. New power plants and repair of power plants. The government is issuing very optimistic reports about the huge investment they are making now in new power plants. But it's a race against the clock, and a large power plant doesn't grow like a mushroom. My educated guess is they'll fail to have those plants ready in time. IF it rains hard in late March through August, AND they can manage to install some power plants, we may just get out of this with our skins.

What happens if things don't work out, if it rains late, too little, we can't cut consumption enough over the next 60 days, and the plants indeed don't get built? We'll be in deep trouble. Evidently something has to give - we'll just have to cut power by brute force. And this means the economy is going down harder than it is now. Which means the party in power, the PSUV, is likely to lose the elections in September. This is going to be a very interesting six months.