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It implies that the OAS and OAS head Insulza are part of the U.S. delaying game, but I'm not so sure of this. Remember that Insulza's constituents--the heads of government in Latin America--are now mostly leftists, and those who are not leftists are at least (most of them) in accord with the leftists on the issue of the sovereignty of Latin American countries. They all fear and loathe U.S. meddling, bullying and worse. The rightwingers (like Calderon of Mexico) are less sincere (more grandstanding, I think, aimed at Mexicans, in his deeply left/right divided but very nationalistic country), and there are some exceptions (Colombia's and Peru's leaders have both sold their sovereignty to the USA). Nevertheless, sovereignty is a no. 1 issue in Latin America; it is especially strongly advocated by the left, and the left comprises the overwhelming majority of the people in Latin American countries, as well as now comprising the majority of the leaders. This latter fact--that so many Latin American leaders are now truly elected and truly representative of their people--is due in no small part to the OAS and its election monitoring division. Further, Insulza's main constituency is this majority leftist leadership (and in turn big majorities of the people in their countries, in most cases). And his constituency is adamant about opposing the coup in Honduras, returning Zelaya to his rightful position, and also seeing that the election in Honduras is properly run (whicn may mean delaying it; how can you have an election with martial law, thousands of activists in prison, coup-controlled media, etc.?).
Magbana (the writer) says that if the OAS arranges Zelaya's return, the coup will assassinate him. And she says, when that happens, "a fierce national resistance will be ready to rumble."
"The US and the golpistas, after months and months of planning, spending millions of dollars, and enduring mountains of worldwide condemnation are not going to let an ousted president of a little banana republic get in the way. But, they had better keep at least one eye open – a fierce national resistance will be ready to rumble."
I think Insulza and the other Latin American leaders know this, and are wisely trying to avoid it. The coupsters and their corpo/fascist backers in the U.S. and elsewhere want nothing more than to start a war in Latin America. They've been trying to do it for a year--all the way back to March 2008 and the US/Colombia bombing/raid on Ecuador through the summer and the reconstitution of the U.S. 4th Fleet in the Caribbean, to the U.S. instigated white separatist attempted coup in Bolivia, to right now, with Uribe's announcement of the dramatic U.S. military escalation in Colombia. An insurgency in Honduras would suit them just fine--just as with the FARC in Colombia. It gives them their "terrorist" excuse for spending BILLIONS of U.S. taxpayer dollars on U.S. militarism in Latin America, and for killing leftists by the thousands, as well as union organizers, human rights workers, community activists and all kinds of other people. And it may be a set-up to trigger Oil War II.
So, back to Insulza: He has a large investment in good government projects by the OAS, and in the success of democracy throughout the region. And he also needs to prove the mettle of the OAS to his constituents. The U.S. has been avoiding and side-lining the OAS, because of its leftist majority, and also probably because of its good government/democracy successes. The John McCain/Hillary Clinton crowd--like the global corporate predators they serve-- don't want good government in Latin America. They want governments they can buy, or bully. True democracy is anathema to them.
Insulza has something to prove. And he for sure does not want Honduras to become another Colombia. So I think his mission to Honduras is sincere. He is looking for a way to restore democracy, to the satisfaction of the people of Honduras, and to the satisfaction of his immediate constituency: Lula da Silva (solid, unshakeable defender of the other leftists), Hugo Chavez (victim of U.S. coup), Rafael Correa (who recently said, "After Zelaya, I'm next."), Evo Morales (U.S. coup attempt last September), Michele Batchelet (of the long memory), Cristina Fermandez (a fiery leftist fighter), Daniel Ortega (fought the U.S. directly), and others with long bitter memories of what the U.S. is capable of doing to their countries and their people. These are the people whom Insulza has to answer to.
I think the Oscar Arias diversion was just that--a U.S. maneuver to avoid and diminish the OAS, to legitimize the coup as an entity equal to the elected president, and above all to delay everything, as Zelaya's term expires, and to give the coup/rightwing overwhelming and completely unfair advantage in the scheduled election in November.
But I don't think the same of Insulza. He has been insulted by the U.S. and by the coupsters for a reason. If he was part of their dirty rotten scheme, they would treat him differently. I think the notion that these insults are playacting--a shadow game--is merely a possibility, but in my opinion a very unlikely one. Insulza oversaw the expulsion of Honduras from the OAS. That's why the coup hates him. And the U.S. wants to kill the OAS. I don't think this is a phony game. I think these are real tensions.
Asking why the OAS is coming to Honduras is a good question. But no one has the answer to it yet. The jury is still out on Insulza, and his reputation with the leftist leadership of the region is at stake. They can vote him out. They can call his bluff, if he's part of the game. And the South Americans have UNASUR now--very active politically, critically important to supporting Morales in Bolivia--and don't need the OAS so much any more. Is the OAS going to be a U.S. tool, as it has so often been in the past, or is it going to be part of this better future that the leftist democracies are creating? Is Insulza going to seize the moment and show some real leadership, or not?
He's got one helluva problem to solve: how to dislodge the coup and set up a REAL election? And he will have the powerful U.S. and some of its worst actors sabotaging him all along the way. Then there is the darkest shadow of all--the Pentagon, which requires a compliant Honduran government and the U.S. military base in Honduras for its Oil War-II plan. It's going to take some brilliant diplomacy to resolve this situation peacefully, and to prevent further bloodshed as well as a potential regional war. The bad guys--led by the U.S., alas--want further bloodshed, and are spoiling for war.
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