Analysis: Honduras coup shows Chavez power limited
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090728/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/lt_honduras_chavez_s_challenge_analysis David W. Koop, Associated Press Writer – 1 hr 43 mins ago
MEXICO CITY – The coup in Honduras has shown the limits to Hugo Chavez's power in the region, as Latin America looks to Washington to resolve the ordeal.
The Venezuelan president put his military on alert and declared that Honduras' interim government "must be overthrown." But a month after the coup, he has not only failed to reinstate his friend Manuel Zelaya — he has solidified the deposed president's opposition.
As the officials who ordered Zelaya out of the country a month ago at gunpoint refused to budge, even Chavez found himself saying: "Do something. Obama, do something!"
Chavez gave the deposed Zelaya use of a Venezuelan airplane — which the Honduran military prevented from landing — his foreign minister as a travel companion and his state-run television cameras for media exposure.
But when Zelaya needed help getting reinstated, he went to Washington, not Caracas.
The U.S., which condemned the coup, enlisted Nobel Peace Prize laureate Oscar Arias, now Costa Rica's president, to broker a solution. Those talks fell apart when the interim Honduran government of Roberto Micheletti refused to reinstate Zelaya.
Zelaya is now camped at the border of Nicaragua and Honduras to keep international pressure on Micheletti's government, something U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called "reckless."
Zelaya accused Clinton of backing off from her support and urges Washington daily to take tougher measures against the coup leaders. The U.S. State Department revoked the diplomatic visas of four of them Tuesday and said it's reviewing the visas of all interim government officials.
Meanwhile, Chavez has limited his action to calling for Hondurans to rise up to reinstate Zelaya, even as pro-Zelaya protests have been small. Instead, the Venezuelan president has been a talkative bystander, calling coup leaders "gorillas" and referring to Micheletti as "Goriletti."
This is not the role Chavez imagined for himself. In a decade in office, he has used his nation's oil wealth and his vision of a united continent free of "U.S. imperialism" to cultivate a leadership role beyond Venezuela's borders.
Chavez has provided a regional model for extending presidential rule and governing by plebiscite to thwart the political and business elite that long ruled — and still owns — much of Latin America.
In fact, it was Zelaya's attempt to hold such a vote — ignoring a Supreme Court order to cancel it — that the opposition cited in arresting him and throwing him out of the country. Opponents accuse Zelaya of wanting to use a constitutional referendum to extend his rule the way Chavez has, something Zelaya denies.
Zelaya, a wealthy rancher elected in 2005 from the Honduran business establishment, may have pledged allegiance to Chavez for reasons as much financial as they are ideological.
Chavez's Petrocaribe program gave Honduras oil, asking for long-term payment at a very low interest rate. Chavez's nine-nation ALBA, which Zelaya joined last year, gave Honduras $300 million in aid — which the opposition complains Zelaya never accounted for.
Falling oil prices have diminished Chavez's international reach, and in any case the aid provided by Venezuela pales in comparison to the cash flowing from the north.
Trade between Honduras, the hemisphere's fourth-poorest country, and the United States tops $7 billion a year. Hondurans living in the United States sent home an estimated $2.5 billion a year on top of that before the current economic crisis. Together, that money accounts for more than a fifth of the Honduran economy.
Latin America's left has wanted Washington to step back from the region, after a history marked more by backing coups than resolving them. Obama won praise for saying the United States will be an equal partner in Latin America.
But Washington's economic might — not Chavez's largesse — is Zelaya's best hope for returning to the presidency.
The Obama administration has suspended more than $18 million in military and development assistance. If it went further and cut off trade or remittances, it would devastate the Honduran economy.
"The U.S. could make this be over in a second if it imposed strong sanctions," said Rice University political scientist Mark Jones.
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