An explanation,

[elleng]

from a friend:

The official results are:

Senator Barack Obama : 37.30%
Senator John Edwards : 29.97%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.53%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.12%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.94%
Uncommitted : 0.12%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%

To understand these numbers, you must keep in mind that these are DELEGATE percentages. Here are the delegate counts. Those numbers are the aggregate totals of delegates elected at all the precincts. These are delegates to the county conventions:

Senator Barack Obama : 37.30% -- 867delegates
Senator John Edwards : 29.97% -- 697
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.53% -- 687
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.12% -- 50
Senator Joe Biden : 0.94% -- 22
Uncommitted : 0.12% - 3
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03% -- 1

Remember also the threshold -- 15%. Therefore Richardson, Biden and Dodd "made threshold" in one or more precinct, since they have delegates.

It would be WRONG, WRONG, WRONG to use the percentages and say that Biden, for example, only had 0.94% support at the caucuses. It is mathematically possible that he got 14.9% of the votes in the initial vote in every single precinct caucus at which he didn't make threshold..

Also the three survivors benefited from the second-round votes originally cast for the candidates who didn't make threshold.

The Iowa Democratic party does not release the original raw votes, only the delegate percentages and counts. We'll never know what level of support Biden, Dodd, and Richardson actually had.

[jillan]

1. And the msm is reporting that Biden got less than 1% of the vote.

:eyes:

Someone that posts on another blog said her group did it - they got Biden a delegate.

It was so great to hear a success story tonite.

[elleng]

2. Right, pirhana,

and I wonder about the others, whether we'll hear from/about those getting him delegates. Observing the huge precincts featured, I can understand the difficulty in that job; last time, I remember watching much smaller venues.

[jillan]

3. If I am understanding this right -

all (most) the people that were going to vote for Biden tonite didn't get a chance to.

This is really screwed up.
Maybe Biden should have waited until the end of Jan.

[elleng]

4. I can't tell whether they didn't get a chance to vote for him,

'It would be WRONG, WRONG, WRONG to use the percentages and say that Biden, for example, only had 0.94% support at the caucuses. It is mathematically possible that he got 14.9% of the votes in the initial vote in every single precinct caucus at which he didn't make threshold.'

[nyc 4 Biden]

5. this all makes it even worse.

But who are we to expect a fair fight. 15%± would have been great compared to the top three who would have been in the low 20s.

[Debi]

6. Everyone who went into the caucuses to support Biden had the opportunity to do so

Where he wasn't viable they had a choice to make (and most chose to go move to another candidate). To say they didn't get the chance to support him is not correct.

Iowa is not a primary state - the caucuses show the preference of the party as a whole - Biden would not have done any better had this been a straight vote.

Over 100,000 new/independent/republican crossover voters were added to the Democratic Party voter lists (which is a good thing for the Iowa Democratic Party as the caucuses are first a party builder and organizing tool and second a weight of presidential preferences of the party members).

[youthere]

7. In general I'd say you're right.....

in a straight up or down vote, biden would have shown slightly better but still not enough to keep in the game. AND in a straight up or down vote Edwards would have won my precinct. Because of realignment he took second.

[Frustratedlady]

8. Right. Everyone was willing to work together to get Biden the delegate.

Well, Edwards' group was hesitant, but the caucus leader was prepared to tell them they would, if it would have helped Biden. We still came up short. Believe me, there were many people trying to get Biden a delegate...many phone calls to headquarters, but the delegates needed to win a delegate were just too high because of the crowd.

The crowds were 2, 3 and 4 times normal. Even if they had counted the initial Biden votes and not the delegates, it wouldn't have been much different. We didn't leave Biden until all possibilities were examined. Without being viable, his votes wouldn't have been known.

I'm sorry if you think we let Joe down without doing battle. Anyone who knows me, knows there is no way I was going to give up until I knew there was no hope. For your information, I was #231 (of 231) who voted when I joined Obama to end the caucus.

[youthere]

9. I don't think anyone thinks you let Joe down. I certainly don't...

We tried to do all we could.

[Debi]

11. Did both of you go over to the Iowa Forum to report your results?

(and are you going to the Irish Democrat tonight?)

[youthere]

12. Yep I did...

don't know about the ID...I think I caught a tummy bug last night..but I'm blaming Clinton's sandwiches!

[Frustratedlady]

13. No, I didn't. What is the Irish Democrat? A wake?

That's what I need. A good, ol'-fashioned Irish Wake and not wake up until maybe next December?

The only thing I see bringing me out of this slump is a strong possibility that Joe will be VP, if Obama wins. I like Obama, but I don't think he can stand against that Republican slime machine without the likes of Joe and 98% of the country behind him. We witnessed what they did to Kerry, and that is a picnic compared to what they will do to Obama and Michelle. They are slobbering all over themselves as I type.

If it's a wake, save me a barstool. I'll bypass my heart medicine for the day. :toast:

[Debi]

10. I ended up not caucusing at all - neither did Mr. Debi

Biden/Richardson/Dodd were SO overwhelmed by the new registrations (mostly Obama folks) that they had NO chance. Since we are such a small caucus (only awarding two delegates) it was over upon realignment. Had my favorite Biden precinct captain been able to sway ALL the Richardson and ALL the Dodd folks to go to Biden he would have been viable - but the Dodd folks went en masse to Obama immediately which blew that chance and then the Richardson folks split between Edwards and Obama (all the Biden folks went to Edwards).

We had a 42% increase in voter turnout for our caucus - (69 compared to 29 in 2004).

If anything it showed Clinton's weakness among young and new voters. During realignment Clinton didn't receive a single additional supporter (making her non-viable in the end). She received no delegates from our township.

[jillan]

14. Frustrated Lady - no way do I think that you let Biden down.

I am sooo thankful that you were there for him!

This is just the first time in my life that I paid this much attention to the caucuses.
Maybe what I asked was a stupid question, but I am just trying to understand it all.

You are wonderful! All of you Iowans that fought so hard for Joe are the best!:yourock:

[Frustratedlady]

16. Thanks!

[jillan]

15. Thanks again for the info Debi - it makes me feel a little better.

and I need that right now.