If you are reading "Armed Madhouse" by Greg Palast

[IDemo]

After reading the section beginning on page 107, ""Hubbert Humbug", you should take a couple of minutes to read An Open Letter to Greg Palast by Richard Heinberg. Put simply, Palast misrepresents Peak Oil as a strictly political invention rather than the geologic science it is based upon. This seems to be a central point for him, that wars and the evil machinations of neo-cons are the only thing keeping us from a return to $12/barrel (page 114). Exxon and Cheney definitely have an eye on controlling the flow of oil, but they aren't worried about anyone, anywhere, turning on the spigots wide enough to get us to $12 oil prices.

I had hoped, after seeing the above open letter nearly a year ago on the Energy Bulletin, that Palast might have seen fit to do some editing, but no. I'm with him on the rest of the book up until this point, and hope to remain so for the remainder.

[Viva_La_Revolution]

1. the only thing I disagree with Palast on is Peak Oil

his arguement is flawed.


:thumbsup:

[Bigmack]

3. Me too!!!

When I read "Madhouse", I couldn't believe Palast doesn't believe in peak oil. He believes all kinds of conspiracies. Peak oil is more believable than most.

[SharonRB]

2. It's next on my list after The Assault on Reason

But I've had it for a number of months, so I have the older edition.

[Captain Angry]

4. I can let that slide.

With as busy as he is documenting all of the crap that Bush gets away with, I'm not surprised that one part of it is getting by him.

And that's fine.

If his blind spot issue was say election fraud, and he was spending his time on Peak Oil, we'd never hear anything else from him, as he'd be relegated to the nutjob pile by most of the world.

No Presidential candidate or politician for that matter will ever stand in front of their constituents and tell them that they should consume less, and prepare more for the future.

And as such, it's a niche issue that won't get traction until the first major oilfield runs dry.

[IDemo]

6. It's actually far from being a niche issue

If you follow the discussion at The Oil Drum and elsewhere, it is likely to be the prevailing issue of the first half of the century, perhaps even eclipsing Global Warming (from humanity's standpoint, if not planet Earth's).

I can guarantee it will 'get traction' before the first major oilfield runs dry, because despite what Palast thinks it means: "Sometime during 2006, we will have used up every last drop of crude oil on the planet", that is not at all what it means. It is about the inability of producers to steadily increase production at a rate equal to increasing demand. The "peak", which many feel we are at now, will be by 2008, or have experienced already, means more oil is being pumped than at any time in history, but the decline of production will follow shortly.

[Captain Angry]

8. At this moment in time, to the general public, it's a niche issue.

I understand the issue quite well. I've changed my lifestyle in preparation of what's coming down the pike.

My point was that it isn't going to make news until somebody HAS to report that oil supplies aren't perpetual, which will happen when an major oilfield is no longer able to maintain its production volume in a very visible way.

There will always be oil, there just won't be cheap oil.

I'm totally on your side, I'm just saying it's not something that regular people think or care about. They think that gasoline comes from a pump and not from an oil field > tanker > refinery > tanker > truck > pump.

[napi21]

5. Your point is well taken, but there's something that's been bugging me.

If the oil companies KNEW they were going to be out of product in...I don't know, pick a number...20, 30, 40 years...wouldn't they be knocking their brains out to find another energy supply to replace their source?

These guys are not stupid. And yes I know they are doing some research on alt. energy as a sideline, but it just doesn't make sense to me that they wouldn't be going full bore in a different energy market, if for no other reason than their SURVIVAL!

Are we REALLY SURE oil is about to run out? Who is promoting this all the time?

I know I'm a skeptic and I question everything I see, read, or hear, but when something doesn't make senese I question it. I'm questioning this whole oil story.

[Captain Angry]

9. Do you think that if they'd developed a competing product to oil...

that they'd tell a soul about it until oil had quadrupled in cost?

I think they're waiting for hell to break loose, and to get tax credits or something to "develop" a new source of energy. Which will be handed out after the check clears.

There is no money in it for the oil companies to release new ideas until they have to, and more accurately, are paid to.

[IDemo]

10. Again, it's not a question of "about to run out"

That point won't come for several decades. It is about having less high quality crude available, in harder to drill locations, often-time in politically dangerous places (really?). There is plenty of money yet to be made, but it will become increasingly difficult.

While there are the book and CD hawkers, most of the 'promotion' of Peak Oil at the highest levels has come from petroleum geologists and others with a high degree of knowledge about the topic.

http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/3/1/3402/63420

http://www.energybulletin.net/primer.php

http://www.peakoil.com/sample/index.html

[Maat]

7. Interesting link. Thanks, I forwarded to my hubby ..

who was in the oil and gas industry (the computer-modeling end) for over two decades. He's been writing code for schools for several years now. He believes that Big Oil basically sets gas prices at whatever level they want to ... and that top oil industry executives feel that they are above countries and governments. He has no doubt they feel it their divine right to control the oil flow and oil reserves.

I'll have him read this and give me his two cents' worth.

[mmonk]

11. I question whether we're there yet.

The profit margins are wide (if the supply was dwindling and the cost of extraction becoming greater, the margins wouldn't be that wide). Oil companies are slowing flows to raise prices. There's still a lot of oil in the ground that hasn't been touched yet. The Saudis may be having some problems with their reserves and fields, but it isn't world wide.

[IDemo]

12. It's pretty well world-wide at this point

The giant fields are where the bulk of production comes from.

The four biggest "supergiant" fields: Ghawar in Saudi Arabia, Da Qing in China, Burgan in Kuwait, and Cantarell in Mexico, all are believed to be in decline. The "water-cut", or percentage of water injected into a declining field to keep the oil flowing that appears back at the wellhead, may be as high as 55% in Ghawar. Pemex, the Mexican state owned oil company, last year announced that Cantarell had declined sharply.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/1/26/9229/79300

[mykpart]

13. My concern about this is that the

Republicans will take this one error and use it to discredit the entire book, and Greg Palast, for that matter. It's the way they operate. Look at what they did to Dan Rather.