Dems will regain the House in 2012

[27inCali]

this is not naive optimism. Natural forces make it almost inevitable.

1) Voter turnout will look very different in 2012. There will be a lot of more representation of traditional Democratic constituencies voting. The youth vote will be back. The Latino vote will be bigger than ever. Black vote will be crazy energized.
2) The economy is still going to be pretty shitty in a lot of areas of the country, and a lot more of that rage will be pointed at GOP House members.
3) The GOP/Tea Party will have had 2 years to make asses of themselves and will make the Dems look like the grown-ups.
4) the GOP now holds 56 seats in districts Obama won. All of those seats are vulnerable. Dems need about half that.

But are Progressives smart and confident enough to see this? To see that there will be an anti-GOP wave next cycle almost no matter what? But heres the real point:

KNOWING THAT THERE WILL BE A WAVE AGAINST THE REPUBLICANS NEXT CYCLE: WHAT CAN PROGRESSIVES DO TO POSITION AS MANY PROGRESSIVES TO WIN IN THE PRIMARIES SO THAT THEY CAN BE SWEPT IN ON THE WAVE-MUCH AS THESE TEA-BAGGER NUTJOBS HAVE BEEN BROUGHT IN THE WAVE?

Now that the Blue Dogs are decimated and outnumbered. Where do we find those handful more Liberal Congressional Districts that could support a more Liberal candidate than what they currently have? What are some Districts in say CA for example that are currently held by a GOPer or DINO but could be taken by a solid Progressive if only that candidate was charismatic enough? I think this is a good window of opportunity for Progressives to push the Dem party left and get much better people not just in the house but in the Senate too. Speaking of DINOs, wouldn't it be great to Primary Dianne Feinstein and replace her with a REAL progressive? You know Scott Brown is history in Mass....but are we grooming a solid Progressive to take his seat or will we let lame centrist party leadership fill that seat with a DINO? Opportunities abound in the next couple years. Pugs can't do anything Obama can veto it all, its all gonna die in the Senate anyhow, but the next cycle we can get a LOT of REAL progressives, if we stay positive and keep our eye on future opportunities.

[madrchsod]

1. well gasoline went up 20ct today....

everyone in the gas station blamed the republicans!. they are also going to be blamed for the big increase in food prices.

it`s up to us to convince one person to vote for a democrat....



yup-one person at a time

[defendandprotect]

4. It's also up ot us to try to influence Democratic leadership to move to the LEFT ....

and to stop playing this game of pretend while capitulating to Repugs on

every issue -- and making back room deals with health care industry and Big Pharma!!

[David__77]

2. There will be nothing done because of them.

The thing is, there would have been nothing done anyway, due to the supermajority required in the senate. Whether we have 41 solid members, or 59, the different is little in the senate on many things. As for the house, if we don't have 60 reliable votes in the senate, it also matters little. We need a progressive majority, not just a Democratic one. And there could be a perfect storm to allow for just that if we play it right. The era of static preferences is over...

[defendandprotect]

3. "The Gulf will bounce back -- " ....!!! How much damage will be done in two years....!!???

[unblock]

5. that's a good guess, but it's hardly in the bag.

redistricting is coming up, and they will pick up a few more seats from gerrymandering. so their effective lead going in to 2012 is larger than it might appear.

but you are correct, obama will likely become more popular if only as a contrast to a congress that is going to become VERY unpopular due to the inevitable bickering and gridlock. moreover, all signs point to obama getting re-elected, notwithstanding mitch and the orangeman's hopes. the economy is likely to be better by then, albeit not by much.

those who turn out to give obama four more years are likely to boost our chances of retaking the house.

that said, whatever house majority we get will be small, and the senate will be an uphill battle because most of the seats up for re-election in 2012 ours. it's even possible that we might regain the house and lose the senate!

[Odin2005]

6. As long as we get the youth vote out we win.

That is why we won in 2008 and lost this year.

[old mark]

7. Will not....nt

[BrightKnight]

8. Buying monthly "Democracy Bonds" is probably a good economic

as well as political investment. Change really does matter.

https://my.democrats.org/page/contribute/dev_demcontrib

Is it just me or is the Democratic page a bit too basic? I like clean web sites but where is the passion? Bring in Dean or someone that knows what a Democrat is and actually gives a damn!

[struggle4progress]

9. Maybe we could hold off on our predictions until the 112 Congress begins sitting

I'm pessimistic about what they'll do and what voters will think -- but it's slightly premature to start with the obits