Cornyn! 'We (Republicans) Can't Take the Senate'

[sabrina 1]

I think he's right for once. Some people think he's just trying to lower expectations, but I think he's being realistic.



Cornyn: We Can't Take The Senate

On the Today Show this morning, NRSC Chairman John Cornyn said conclusively that the Senate is out of reach for Republicans this cycle.

"I think we don't get the majority back but we come awfully close, and we finish the job in 2012," Cornyn said.

They could come close, like 51-49. But, I think Dems may do better than that. Even writing off some of the toss up races, you still come up with Republicans not making it.

For the first time ever, I hope Cornyn is right.

[notesdev]

1. We'll hold 52-54

not like it'll make a difference, there's no functional difference between 50 and 59, and the only difference between 40 and 59 is who has nominal control over the chamber. Unless one side or the other gets 60+ solid votes the chamber will be effectively unchanged.

[sabrina 1]

6. I think Dems could change that. There are several strategies

that can be used. When Republicans were in control, things went their way. Dems have to start fighting. Caving isn't fighting.

I can guarantee that if Republicans were to be in the majority by 51-49 the chamber WOULD be changed.

[notesdev]

22. duplicate, delete

dup delete

[notesdev]

23. The bottom line for the Senate

It's essentially a legislative veto chamber with the way the filibuster is abused (IMHO unconstitutionally) by both parties. As long as both parties have 41 votes so that each can wield such a veto, the net result is the same - either there some measure of is bipartisan agreement, enough to garner 60 votes, or nothing passes.

[sally cat]

2. Better to admit it now than be ridiculed after.

[Historic NY]

3. But we can still filibuster.........were #1 .

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/03/01/analysis-republicans-sett_0_n_480801.html

[Chulanowa]

4. Won't take the house either, motherfucker n/t

[gateley]

15. Please god. The thought of Boehner up there, and losing Pelosi

who I've grown to respect immensely, just makes me so SAD. :(

[Cognitive_Resonance]

5. It's preemptive damage control. They're afraid. Perceptions are everything. nt

[Eugene Stoner]

7. Intrade Lowers Senate win contract for Democratic party to 43

Intrade has Democratic win in the Senate Contact at 43 down 3.8 today. This is the lowest yet.

http://www.intrade.com/

[sabrina 1]

10. Mostly Republicans must be betting on that.

But anyone who actually looks at the analysis of the stats so far, like Cornyn, has to acknowledge that a Republican takeover of the Senate is as close to impossible as it can get.

See here for a simpl analysis and then decide where you put your money :-)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x9407623

I'm betting on a Dems winning with 54 seats, maybe 55.

[jberryhill]

17. I think there is money to be made on Intrade this week

They are showing low numbers for a couple of tight races which do not seem to reflect what we already know about some of those races.

I handicap horses as a hobby, and see some definite opportunities on Intrade.

I think Intrade is suffering from a "sucker money"/"smart money" problem, if you want to call it a "problem".

If you are into this kind of thing, watch the payouts from the Breeder's Cup races this weekend. Normally, horse races are a pretty tight market with a lot of informed money. In everyday racing, 1/3 of the time, the favorite wins. It is pretty much an iron rule. Championship races - the Breeders Cup and the Triple Crown - attract a lot of dumb money, so there are opportunities for what amounts to formula betting, just on the odds spread, instead of normal handicapping analytics.

That's what Intrade is looking like to me right now.

[budkin]

8. They ain't finishing shit in 2012... we'll take back our losses

[gateley]

9. A "Republican insider" told one of the commentators on MSNBC

that their dream outcome would be that they fall one seat short of a majority in the House and Senate so they could continue to block the Dems and could still blame everything on them.

[sabrina 1]

12. And every time they try that, Dems should be all over

TV and anywhere else they can get attention, telling the public that all Republicans do hold up progress.

Then something needs to be done about them threatening to filibuster. Dems have been very bad about showing the public just how obstructive they have been. It has to be short and simple, with charts if necessary, but the message isn't getting out to the average person.

Starting right after the election, introducing bills the public is favorable to, challenging Repubs publicly to debate their reasons for 'voting against the American people' etc.

And stop trying to woo them or be bi-partisan with them. Enough of that.

Bullies do not respect 'nice'. They have a lot more respect for people who don't tolerate their temper tantrums and let them know, they will do something about it.

[gateley]

14. They need somebody who explains it step by step -- like Rachel,

SHOWING how they stop any progress. Now, they just blow it off and their doe-eyed devotees think they're voting that way because it's what's best for the country. I think they REALLY should have raised hell about the Republicans voting against the defense bill because of the DADT provision. We should have been screaming -- you've abandoned our men and women in uniform, stuff like that. Stuff THEY would have been proclaiming had the situation been reversed.

So you and I are in TOTAL agreement on this! :pals:

But you're so right, the filibuster fiasco needs to be repaired immediately. I don't know what we can do, but again, if the Republicans were in power, they'd make sure to change it, so we can, too!

I pray he doesn't go the bipartisan route any more. Even when he bent over backward time and time again, to our criticism and anger and frustration, McCain said "I've never seen such a Partisan administration!'. :wow: So it does no good. Learn the lesson, don't make the same mistakes in the future.

[sabrina 1]

16. Yes, Rachel does a great job of simplifying things for the average

viewer who doesn't have time to research everything. But that's the role the press SHOULD be playing.

If the president doesn't realize by now that the current Republican party cannot be reasoned with, he will never learn and will continue to invite them to literally punch Democrats in the stomack each time they try to be 'fair'.

When you win, YOU call the shots. That's now what happened in the past two years.

When THEY won, that IS what happened. So, I don't buy the excuses at all. There has been a lack of a fighting spirit for some reason. Dems are more angry at their frustrated base who feel like passengers in a car desperately trying to tell the driver 'NO, you're going the wrong way' but with no control over the situation, than they are at Republicans.

I hope they are now sufficiently mad at Republicans that we will see some real action after this election.

And you are absolutely right that if the filibuster were being used against THEIR legislation (why wasn't it?) Repubs would definitely do something about it.

Anyhow, first step is to hold the Senate tomorrow and maybe gain a few seats :-)

[Vinca]

11. I think he's panic stricken at the thought it might happen.

Whoa! What a shocker it would be to earn your $174,000 a year by having to do something . . . anything. Republicans are actually happier being in the minority.

[sabrina 1]

13. Could be. They get a lot of what they want anyhow when

Dems compromise, like the Health Care bill, then stand back and let Dems take the hits from all sides, which worked beautifully for them this time.

I think they are waiting for 2012 when more Dem seats will be up for election and hoping to gain a huge majority then. Meantime, as you say, if Dems let them, they can obstruct and make Dems look bad.

But, that is up to Democrats if they keep the Senate.

[gratuitous]

18. If they don't, they're complete failures, right?

Isn't that the vibe I've been getting for the last month from the Republicans and the popular media? If they don't measure up to their inflated, almost delusional, expectations, they're complete frauds. Right?

Ooh listen: Crickets!

[sabrina 1]

20. If Dems hold the Senate, and especially if they gain seats

they should focus on 'the will of the people' choosing them to continue Democratic Policies and hope that Republicans will respect the will of the people this time and start working to 'get things done' rather than 'obstructing' the people's business. And they should do that every time Republicans refuse to cooperate. They should emphasize that it is this behavior that the voters rejected.

Even if Dems lose the HOuse, they should not talk about too much, but focus on the win in the Senate.

I'm not sure they will lose the House. They will probably lose some seats, but I was looking at the latest stats on those races, and it's not at all certain that there will be any big loss in the House either.

[PRETZEL]

19. I do think the Dems will hold the Senate

but no so sure about the House.

The "silver lining" if there is one in a R controlled House is that their standard tactic of "Just Say No" won't fly.

They'll have control of the agenda. They'll be the ones who'll have to make the arguments for their case. Let's see "Tangerine" Boehner going on the Sunday talk shows bitching and complaining about the lack of compromise just to have Nancy Pelosi respond, "Why weren't you willing to compromise before?"

[seabeyond]

21. no. teabaggers have to take both houses or they are losers.... that is what media tells us

and have been telling us all this time. there is a movement. so

either

shit or get off the pot

[sabrina 1]

24. Lol, well I agree with that.

[Aristus]

25. Never mind the Senate; we need to hold the HOUSE! Don't you get it?!?

If the repukes take the House, the next two years will be "Impeach Obama" all the time, 24/7! They have no grounds to impeach, but they'll do it anyway. We have to hold the House.

Get out and vote DEM!!!

[sabrina 1]

26. I think everyone knows Dems have to win the House and that is why

people have been working so hard, phone-banking, going door-to-door, dragging friends to the voting booth etc.

But Republicans and the media have been predicting a Repub. takeover of the Senate. I looked at the numbers a few days ago, and I don't see where they got that.

However, now that they raised expectations, it looks like they are going to be disappointed.

I also don't think there is going to be a huge loss in the House either. I read that at least one third of voters in polls, had not made up their minds yet.

Yes, we need to win, and they need to stop trying to influence voters not to bother, which is what they and the media have been doing by predicting a loss in both Houses.

Cornyn obviously has looked at reality and is trying to dampen the disappointment he expects when they lose the Senate.