By: Jon Walker Monday October 25, 2010 9:30 am
There are some potentially good signs in the California early voting data for Proposition 19, the ballot initiative to legalize, regulate, and tax marijuana. Early voting turnout is fairly strong among Democrats and high in the San Francisco Bay area. All polling has shown that the Bay area is the region of the state most supportive of Prop 19, and Democrats tend to be more supportive than Republicans. From the Washington Post:
In California, the Atlas Project’s analysis suggests that Democrats account for 42.9 percent of the more than 1 million ballots cast thus far, which means they are running slightly ahead of the 41.4 percent they got in 2006. By comparison, Republicans have cast an estimated 39.7 percent of the early California ballots, which is down slightly from the 40.9 percent they got four years ago. However, Republicans in California note that Democratic registration overall has grown dramatically in the state. Democrats now have a 13-point edge, which is five points more than it was four years ago.
And Mark DiCamillo, director the nonpartisan California Field Poll, noted that the state’s early voters are heavily concentrated in the liberal San Francisco Bay area. He said nearly three-quarters of the voters in Santa Clara County have requested mail-in ballots, compared with 21 percent in Los Angeles County.
These are good signs for Prop 19. This year, tbecause conservative enthusiasm is expected to be extremely high, it is difficult for pollsters to determine what the demographic makeup of the November 2 electorate will be. The higher the turnout is in the Bay Area, the more likely it will be that Prop 19 passes.
Proposition 19′s success or failure is highly dependant on turnout. These are some small but potentially good omens.
http://justsaynow.firedoglake.com/2010/10/25/in-california-early-voting-boosts-prop-19%E2%80%99s-prospects/