Are any Maine DUers not voting for Libby Mitchell?

[BurtWorm]

I grew up in Maine, so I'm watching this election from afar with horror (via Down with Tyranny for example):

http://downwithtyranny.blogspot.com/2010/10/maine-and-florida-democratic-party.html


Since few outside of Maine are following that race, let's start there. The Democrat state Senate President Libby Mitchell, is well-liked inside the political establishment but has run for so many thing so many times that voters seem tired of her. 56% of Mainers polled by PPP say they disapprove of her (an even worse ranking than LePage's). But compared to her, the part time mayor of Waterville and the General Manager of Marden's Surplus and Salvage, is a fresh face-- even if he is a crank and a threat to much of what Mainers hold dear (outside of crankdom itself). The fact that the best-liked of the candidates is an independent, Eliot Cutler, makes it impossible for Mitchell to find a path to victory.

What's most remarkable about LePage's likely victory is that it comes despite the fact that a majority of Maine voters don't like him. 51% of them have an unfavorable opinion of him to only 42% who see him in a positive light. But because he has a relatively unified conservative base while Democratic leaning voters are splitting almost evenly between Mitchell and Cutler he's in a position to win without coming anywhere close to 50% of the vote.

LePage is winning Republicans, who because of the enthusiasm gap are actually the largest group of voters in Maine this year, by a 71-18 margin. Mitchell is pretty much out of contention at this point because she is barely taking even a majority of Democratic voters, holding a 51-30 advantage over Cutler. Cutler meanwhile has the advantage with independents at 40% to 31% for LePage and with Mitchell registering at only 17%.


There's one way to keep LePage from winning and, if he can, ruining the state. Mitchell would have to step aside and endorse Cutler. If she would, it's likely he'd win. But she won't. There's a similar situation in Florida. In fact, people have been not sending in early ballots in anticipation of either Charlie Crist or Kendrick Meek dropping out to stop Rubio. Apparently that ain't happening either. The latest polling in the Florida race for the open Senate seat shows Rubio with a 42% plurality to 35% for Crist and 15% for Meek.

...

[GreenPartyVoter]

1. I hate to say it, but I'll vote for whichever non-LePage person is ahead on Tuesday in the polls.

A sad way to choose a candidate but it's all our plurality voting system offers.

[BurtWorm]

2. Can you trust the polls?

Is Libby Mitchell that bad? Is Cutler that good?

Sincere questions all. I don't know what I'd do if I were there.

[northernlights]

5. no. LePage is that bad.

I mean, phenomenally bad. So bad, he makes W look good by comparison. I cannot believe there is a good chance he will win. Or at least, not lose.

[BurtWorm]

8. I know LePage is the pits.

But in that case, the choice should be crystal clear: vote for the Democrat. It's nerve-wracking to think the Dems allowed this race to get far enough away from them that they're competing with a third party rather than a right-wing psychobagger.

[northernlights]

10. no, you don't know, and unless you can cite exactly what LePage is proposing

and what impact that will have on Maine, then you have no right to suggest...never mind tell...me what to do. :eyes:

[BurtWorm]

11. You misread the post.

I fucking hate it when that happens.

I am not telling you what to do. I'm agonizing over how the fucking election got so out of whack that a whackjob stands a real chance of winning. I'm not blaming you, I'm blaming the fucking Democrats in Maine. It's not up to you to win the election for the Dems, it's up to them to give you a reason for them to win. They clearly didn't do that. Why didn't they, I'm asking.

And by the way, this is the question in every case a Democrat is threatened by an obviously awful republican candidate. Why can't Democrats win when the choice is between a moron and a Democrat?

[northernlights]

12. because it's not a moron vs a dem. it's a moron vs a dem vs 2 or 3 independant

I've lost track of how many candidates we actually have. There are at least 2, if not 3 independents, splitting the votes here.

Maine has more than its share of morons and nutbaggers. They would be the ~34% for the moron named LePage.

I think the dem named Mitchell is in 2nd place at about ~24%, although that could be the independent named Cutler, who has a tree on his signs to try to fool the greens. Mitchell's entire sign is green; not sure if that's to distance herself from dem/Obama, to fool the greens, or both.

And then either Mitchell or Cutler is in 3rd place. and I think Cutler is the most "liberal" of the independents. I think the rest in normal times would be repubs. One of them even has a bright red sign, although the hand painted ones faded majenta pink. So yes, we even have a majenta-pink candidate, but I'm pretty sure he was supposed to be red, not gay.

And then trailing is/are the other independent(s) who's names I totally forget but who jointly are syphoning off another sizeable chunk of votes.

And I think undecided is at the bottom of the list, but I could be wrong.

The numbers are as of the last time I looked, by my memory, so 1. could be wrong and 2. probably changed since then. But that explains the situ here.

[BurtWorm]

13. I understand the situation.

Unfortunately, it gives a black eye to the multiparty system when it's conducted as a first past the post contest. If more liberals vote for candidates than conservatives, then the liberals should win the governorship. But it's clear that that is not going to happen in Maine. You're going to have a governor who has a slimmer plurality than even Bill Clinton had in 1992 and 1996, probably.

If I were a Maine progressive, I would be working on getting a choice voting system in place to try to prevent teabagger victories in the future when the Dems are too inept to command a majority of liberal votes.

[northernlights]

16. LePage is beyond teabagger

He wants to drill for oil off Maine's coast. :wtf: He's really, really, really stupid. He looks like a thug...just has that aura.

the best hope if he manages to win is that he won't be able to accomplish anything until he can be got rid of.

Oh yeah, and I seem to remember him babbling about turning Belfast -- a tiny, beautiful seacoast village with a beautiful harbor -- into a commercial port or an oil port or something equally crazy.

[BurtWorm]

17. I'm just beside myself with anxiety over this. For Maine.

The sad thing is, it's often the people who are hurt most by idiots like LePage in Maine who vote for them, because they feel powerless and the LePages make them feel like a threat. Is that what's going on? Or is LePage just appealing to stupid fundamentalists who are hopelessly out of touch with reality anyway?

[northernlights]

20. LePage owns an overstock warehouse chain of stores named Marden's

so he's a local rethug self-made businessman. He appeals to the uneducated, rural locals who don't get that wrecking the coast for one industry will destroy all other local industries from lobstering, clamming and fishing to tourism.

These people may live in shacks with corrogated tin roofs, or in camps with outhouses. But they cannot begin to fathom the environmental destruction -- and destruction of their way of life -- that he would bring. They take nature for granted...they've never seen what it's like to have your environment turned into toxic soup. They generally don't read or get out of the state much. They cannot even begin to imagine the ramifications.

And then there are those who simply envy the coastal people; they can't afford it so they want to destroy it. Instead of being grateful to at least be able to visit easily.

[lise]

33. Actually, Mainers *have* seen

their environment turned into a toxic soup and then....restored gain.

You're probably too young to know it but - speaking as someone whose family has lived there since the 1700's- Maine forests were gradually de-nuded for farmland throughout the 18th, 19th and 20th centuries, up til the 1940's.

Now, most of those forests are back.

You know all of those countless tiny towns with their (now shuttered) factories and mills by the rivers?

When my father was a kid in the 30's, the river running thru his town was fish-less and polluted, absolutely dead, from the local tannery.

Now, it's crystal clear and full of fish- has been since the 70's when I was a kid.

So Mainers have seen first hand the restorative power of Nature. Probably moreso than most.

I haven't lived there for decades and haven't been following this race but, frankly, I can understand the appeal of a part-time Mayor of Waterville, largely seen as the most important city for a large swath of inland Mainers- and a nice, thriving little city to boot!

Add to that the owner of_MARDENS!_ where every poor person from miles around goes to shop and this guy LePage would be seen to have a lot to offer for voters who aren't otherwise informed.

Good Luck up there.

[northernlights]

41. not too young. too new to Maine

I grew up in Pennsylvania. I remember in the around 1960 swimming in the creek down the street from my house. My father built a little dam to make the water a couple feet deep in one spot.

We returned a couple years later -- I wanted to learn to "fish." The water was now covered with pink blotches and specks of foam. There was a dead fish on the bank. :cry: My father looked sad and shook his head...but he is a republican and against taxes and against regulation and just considers destroying earth the price we have to pay :wtf:

I am glad the lifelong Mainers have jumped in here. I've been putting in my take, but have only been here for 7 years so can only offer the pov of a "transplant." A masshole transplat at that.

[Crystal Clarity]

30. They've made some tactical errors

but nothing imho to account for this, this horror as you aptly describe it.

A couple of factors are at play here... The anti-incumbent fervor for one. Libby herself said it best in a recent debate after it had become clear that she was losing ground. Paraphrasing here, but basically she said "The people have said time and again that they'd like to have a well qualified woman to run for Governor. Someone with experience. I'm honored to be that woman. She then eluded to the crux of the whole sitiuation... (again paraphrasing here) "but some would have you believe that this is now a detriment"... This is true. 'They' have been blaming her for all our woes because of her "decades in the legislature" .... which brings me to another factor. Them.

The RGA and other shadowy groups affiliated with Rove and his minions have been pounding on her relentlessly much as we've seen in other more publicized races such as Reid/Angle, Boxer/Fiorina ect. Unfortunately, I think they have made some headway. Particularly with independent and unenrolled voters of which Maine has a very high percentage of. Which leads to factor #3.

Remember Ross Perot in 92? I don't know if you lived here then, but Maine had the dubious distinction of being the only State to go for him. Many Mainers are individualists and stubbornly proud of it. Less then a decade ago we had an independent 2 term Governor. Despite our Blue-State reputation, I don't think either party has much more then a 30 to 35% enrollment and many of them are DINOs and RINOs.

And finally we have Cutler as another factor. Polls were showing a whopping 24% of undecided voters as little as 2 weeks ago. At that time Libby's #'rs were slightly slipping but still doable while Cutler's #'s were still way behind Libby's. It was around this time that the negative ads about Libby skyrocketed. LePage had already pretty much 'peaked' at that time (he's since gained a little) But it was Cutler who began eating away at Libby's lead. He pretty much sucked up most of the remaining unenrolled apolitical types who had just starting tuning in, as well as disaffected, angry Dems since he's fairly liberal on social issues.

We Dems have been in our own private hell up here these past 2 weeks. I'm still voting for Libby but it pretty much looks like a lost cause at this point.

[GreenPartyVoter]

22. a) I'm going to have to because LePage is just that bad. b) Neither Mitchell nor

Cutler have won me over enough for me to say, "That's my candidate." They seem to have equal shares of things I like and dislike about them.

This is truly a most frustrating race! (And the worst of it is knowing that we most likely will wind up with a man who brought Haley Barbour up here to stump for him. A total teabagger who will probably do everything he can to shred our social support systems like MaineCare. *sigh*)

[BurtWorm]

25. He sounds and looks like an ignoramus from afar as well.

:evilfrown:

[northernlights]

7. sounds like a plan to me nt

[eShirl]

24. that was our strategy but we voted early

when it still looked like Mitchell had the best chance against LePage.

[GreenPartyVoter]

26. Ouch. :^( Did you vote early out of necessity or excitement? :^)

[eShirl]

27. we usually vote as soon as absentee voting opens up, to get it out of the way

one of us is disabled and it's just more convenient to do it this way, in our own time -- plus we can look up info online on some of the lesser known names and questions. It's always been a good feeling knowing it's done and out of the way.

It doesn't feel as good this year.

[GreenPartyVoter]

28. Yeah. but you couldn't have known. *hugs* And it's important to get it done early in your case.

[eShirl]

31. thanks, I appreciate that

:hug:

[Davis_X_Machina]

3. LePage won our student mock election...

....with only 29% of the votes.

Gotta love first-past-the-post.

[BurtWorm]

4. Good reason to push for choice voting in Maine.

I'd love to see that idea spread like wildfire.

[Blue Meany]

6. I don't see that much difference between Cutler and Libby

on the issues. If I had to choose, I would probably vote for Cutler. But I will vote for whichever one of them seems to be ahead on election day.

[BurtWorm]

9. How did Libby Mitchell let this get so far out of her hands?

Was it a tough fight for the primary?

[northernlights]

14. no. from what I read or heard somewhere, she was running a "clean" campaign

whatever that means, but I guess one thing was lack of money for ads.

I didn't see any signs until very recently. By then, giant LePage signs were everywhere. And the 1 of the 2 or 3 tv ads I've seen for Mitchell was negative against Cutler, which turned me off both of them to be honest.

I thought it would be over for LePage when he said, repeatedly, that he'd be on the front page telling Obama to "GO TO HELL, OBAMA!"

And I think the real problem is so many 3rd party candidates syphoning off votes. I suppose she's right in that the LePage votes are a lost cause, so no point going after those.

[BurtWorm]

15. But it looks silly for a Dem to pick on an independent.

Who is Cutler, anyway? Why did he choose to run? Did he think he was Angus King or Ralph Nader?

[northernlights]

18. former lawyer who represented China against US labor

according to Mitchell's attack ad.

Definitely not Ralph Nader -- then I'd wholeheartedly support him.

Closer to Angus King, I suppose. But I think those days are long over.

He's just a lawyer angling to get rich, like most all politicians today.

[BurtWorm]

19. She shoulda kicked his lawyerly ass early and often.

Really! But I don't blame her, I blame the Maine Democratic Party, which rolls over every time one of the Girls is up for reelection in the Senate. Chellie Pingree should be sitting in Susan Collins seat. (At least she's sitting in Tom Andrews', right?)

[northernlights]

21. I love Chellie Pingree

I don't know who she replaced...haven't been here long enough. But I liked her right from the get-go.

The other one (forget her name) I'd like to lose. Hopefully a green will run against her someday.

[GreenPartyVoter]

23. Chellie is terrific and so is her daughter, whose term is now up. My dad was running for her

(Hannah's) seat in the House as a Green. Unfortunately he passed away so we'll never know how well he might have done. :cry:

[northernlights]

35. I'm so sorry for your loss, (((GPV)))

it sounds like a loss for all of us...:hug:

[GreenPartyVoter]

36. Thank you. He was a very, very smart man and would have worked so hard to get things done. But

unfortunately his health just wasn't having any of it.

[Crystal Clarity]

39. So this was quite recent

For some reason I had assumed it had been in the more distant past. Again, I'm so sorry GPV :hug:

[GreenPartyVoter]

40. Yeah, no Mom had passed 5 years ago, but Dad went just this past April.

[Crystal Clarity]

32. Yes she is and we're damn proud of her

Well at least I am, but I'm pretty sure others feel the same. I think/hope she's safe although that race has been terribly nasty too.

About the rest, see my post #30. I think it explains in a somewhat linear fashion how this came about (imho).

Thanks for caring about us BurtWorm. Things are looking very bad at this point and frankly I'm scared. LePage is a lunatic. :scared:

[GreenPartyVoter]

29. Yeah, there's no way Libby can grab any of those LePage votes.

[lise]

34. whoops....

If people responded positively to this message from LePage, sounds like Maine may be making a turn to the Right again.

Pretty sure it was pretty Right til (as the locals like to say) "a bunch of Harvard Hippies started moving in and gradually took over State government" back in the 70's or 80's.

Okay. This is interesting. I'll be watching Maine.

[GreenPartyVoter]

37. We were a moderate Republican state in the New England tradition. None of that

mega-Fundie or Tea party nonsense. People were just mostly voting with their wallets, and while they may have been conservative socially as well they were more live and let live back then.

[BurtWorm]

38. I bet you will.

:popcorn:

I wonder if it was the harvard hippies who kept sending Ed Muskie
to the Senate.