Automated Polls Show Prop 19 Winning 56-41: Anti-Marijuana Stigma Could Be Throwing Off Live Polling

[kpete]

Source: Firedoglake

Automated Polls Show Prop 19 Winning 56-41: Anti-Marijuana Stigma Could Be Throwing Off Live Polling
By: Jon Walker Friday October 22, 2010 3:17 pm


Yes on Proposition 19 has just released a set of internal numbers for polling they conducted last week, which compared responses given to live interviewers versus automated telephone polling. Interestingly, there is a huge divide between the level of support expressed for Prop 19 with the two methodologies. They find that if an individual is responding only to a computer program,
I have previously speculated that Prop 19 might be do better in polls conducted without live interviewers. There is still a stigma in many communities attached to marijuana use which could make some voters embarrassed to tell a stranger over the phone they plan to vote for legalization.

PPP and SurveyUSA ,which use automatic interviews, have consistently shown greater support for the initiative. We have seen recently that SurveyUSA, using mostly automated interviews, found the measure winning 48-44 while PPIC, using live interviews, had it losing 44-49.

Read more: http://justsaynow.firedoglake.com/2010/10/22/internal-polls-prop-19-winning-56-41-anti-marijuana-stigma-could-be-throwing-off-other-polling/

[bluestateguy]

1. A Bradley Effect for pot?

Ah the privacy of the voting booth.

[RainDog]

2. It's called the "Broadus Effect"

in honor of Snoop Dog - coined by Nate Silver, at fiveeighty

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/07/broadus-effect-social-desirability-bias.html

I hope this is the case... but we'll see.

[Merlot]

5. Here in CA it's been the Bradley Effect since the 70's

Mayor Bradley was ahead the day before the race, then lost.

[RainDog]

8. it's a joke - Broadus is Snoop Dog's real name

Snoop Dog is sort of famous for being pro-cannabis and Silver's take was a riff on the "Bradley Effect."

Yes, it's the Bradley Effect - but in the case of this proposition, it's been dubbed the Broadus Effect.

[pattmarty]

3. This is pretty much the only thing I"ll be looking for on Nov 2. This....................

...........will be fucking huge if it passes. We already the Dems are gonna lose the House and probably keep the Senate. This will be historic in the same way the early efforts to repeal Prohibition.

[RainDog]

4. It is interesting as an example of direct democracy

concerning an issue that has been used as a cudgel against specific races and classes of people.

That in itself is the best reason to repeal this current prohibition - it is unjust b/c this society is so deeply racist.

[Merlot]

6. I'm looking for this and the repeal of the 2/3 majority on budget

Both of these are very big, 25 for CA, and 19 for the rest of the country as well. It's a game changer.

[Merlot]

7. Stigma? Really?

I tell anyone and everyone how 19 needs to pass - and I don't even partake.

[Arugula Latte]

9. I'll bet at least 98 percent of adults under the age of 65 have smoked at least a few puffs of pot.

I have a feeling it will win.

[RainDog]

10. I posted this yesterday

and I'll link here for anyone who's interested.

two calls for yes on Prop 19. with very good reasons for doing so.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x9372085