NPR poll: Republican midterm tide has crested

[bigtree]

A new national survey of battleground districts strongly suggests that the Democrats aren't quite dead just yet

by Joe Conason

While Democrats must still expect to lose dozens of House seats and several Senate seats on November 2, the earlier trend toward a massive Republican landslide may have been arrested, according to the latest NPR Battleground Poll released today. Conducted jointly by Democratic pollster Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and Republican pollster Public Opinion Strategies, the NPR survey of voters in 96 most hotly contested districts indicates significant narrowing of the Republican lead since the public radio network’s last midterm survey in June.

Still warning of a likely shift in control of the House, the NPR polling team says that while the midterm is still “an ugly election” in the 86 Democratic-controlled districts that they surveyed, this election should no longer be considered a “death march” for Democrats. Their analysis highlights four important new developments:

First, in ten “battleground” House districts currently held by Republicans, the latest numbers suggest that the GOP will “lose a fair number” of those seats because their lead has been cut in half since June.

Second, in 58 House districts polled last June and this month, Democrats are gaining ground, with the Republican lead cut by more than half from eight points to three . . .

Third, independent voters have stopped moving toward the Republicans and reversed direction . . .

Finally, the NPR survey shows the Democrats winning the “message debate” in recent weeks, a development that the pollsters call “amazing” . . .


read more: http://www.salon.com/news/politics/2010_elections/?story=/opinion/conason/2010/10/16/npproll#

[BootinUp]

1. A white knuckler all the way to the finish. nt

[PSPS]

2. Just as the media wants it to be. Who would watch their ads otherwise?

[K8-EEE]

7. That's true! n/t

[Scruffy1]

11. You are exactly right

I have seen our media turn a few dumb tea baggers into a movement with their fucked up coverage, and sell the narrative to the dumb bastards who don't know their ass from their elbow.

[wisteria]

3. A positive development that I hope continues until November 2. n/t

[Cognitive_Resonance]

4. Democratic momentum? Why that's completly off-message. Can't have this reality leaking

into the media narrative, can we?

[bigtree]

5. off-message for Democratic detractors as well

Their misery (and announced apathy about voting in this election) is losing company.

[w4rma]

13. Rahm is gone. Obama isn't talking like a DLCer. Democratic polls move up. Correlation? (nt)

[laughingliberal]

15. Yep. If they'd done this 6 months earlier, we'd be sitting pretty for November. nt

[K8-EEE]

8. No there can't be any Dem Momentum!

IT'S NOT IN THE SCRIPT! :sarcasm:

[AmericanMan1958]

6. We are Just getting started...

We have are voice and we are activated...
Great Job....
Remember, "One Nation Working Together",,,,

[bigtree]

9. let's bury this positive report

. . . and highlight and moan about the others claiming republican gains. :eyes:

[Mudoria]

10. Perhaps the people polled suddenly realized

"WTF? I was thinking about putting the dumbasses who started this mess back in control? Christ, what a massive brainfart!"

[bigtree]

12. kick

[Swamp Rat]

14. k&r

[TexasObserver]

16. recommend

[bigtree]

17. kick