Woot! Democrats are defying the flood of untraceable corporate money coming from Karl Rove led campaign groups, and astroturf outfits like Freedom Work! Can we keep it up in the face of hundreds of millions of advertising dollars?
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/13/democratic-polling-improves-in-key-senate-races-lengthening-g-o-p-takeover-odds/?hp
After having lost ground in the Senate forecast for three consecutive weeks, Democrats have demonstrated improved polling in several key matchups over the past week, dimming Republican hopes for taking over the chamber.
The FiveThirtyEight model now gives Republicans an 18 percent chance of claiming control of the Senate after the Nov. 2 elections — down from 24 percent last week. The projected composition of the Senate has also changed slightly: more than 100,000 simulation runs of the forecast model show the Democrats finishing with an average of 52.0 senators, up from 51.5 last week, and Republicans with 47.9 senators, down from 48.4 last week.
It would be dubious to assert that Democrats have some “momentum” at the national level — pollsters have released surveys in dozens of matchups for the U.S. House this week, for instance, and they continue to be broadly in line with large (potentially very large) Democratic losses in that chamber.
Control of the Senate, however, will boil down to a relatively small number of races — possibly not more than a half-dozen. And in several of those races, Democrats have made small, but important, gains
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