Hurricane Paula is stationary

[malaise]

She was moving North this morning. Is she about to change direction?

[Stinky The Clown]

1. Mercifully, she stalled over water

Even a tropical storm that is not at hurricane force can be incredibly destructive when it relentlessly pummels an area for extended periods.

[Warpy]

2. It looks like Cuba is in for it

This is one of the weirdest projections I've ever seen:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL1810W5_NL_sm2+gif/144614W5_NL_sm.gif

[uppityperson]

3. I like this Historical Map, rather Who The Heck Knows

[SoCalDem]

5. Looks like a 7 yr old got hold of the marking pens

:rofl:

[StandingInLeftField]

4. Latest from Weather Underground

Looks like Havana is in for it.

[Cal Carpenter]

7. Only 6% chance that Havana will get hit hard (aside from rain)

Forecast for Paula
Paula should start moving to the northeast or east later this morning, bringing it near the tip of western Cuba late tonight or early Thursday morning. Hurricane force winds extend out just fifteen miles from Paula's center, so only a very small region of coast will receive Paula's strongest winds if landfall occurs. The 5am EDT wind probability product from NHC gives Cabo San Antonio on the western tip of Cuba the highest odds of receiving hurricane force winds of any land area--a 34% chance. Key West is given a 2% chance, and Havana, Cuba, a 6% chance. It currently appears that heavy rain will be the major threat from Paula. If Paula stalls over or near western Cuba for several days, the hurricane could easily dump more than ten inches over mountainous regions of the island.

The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for wind shear to rise to a very high 30 knots tonight, and remain about 30 knots for the rest of the week. This high shear, caused by strong upper-level winds from the south, should begin to eat away at the south side of Paula's eyewall today, causing the inner core of the storm to collapse and Paula to weaken to a tropical storm by Thursday. If Paula hits the western tip of Cuba, weakening will be hastened. Given Paula's small size, once the inner core is disrupted, the storm could weaken very quickly.

The latest set of model runs from 2am EDT (6Z) continue to show a fair degree of uncertainty about the future path of Paula. There are two basic solutions. One solution, championed by the GFDL and GFS ensemble mean, takes Paula through or just south of the Florida Keys on Friday morning, then into the Bahamas Friday afternoon. The other solution, offered by the rest of the models, is for Paula to move very slowly over western Cuba the next few days, then circle southeastwards into the Caribbean, as a strong high pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico intensifies and pushes Paula to the south. This is the more likely scenario, given the current trends in how the models are depicting evolution of the jet stream pattern over the U.S. in the coming days. However, residents of South Florida, the Keys, and the Bahamas should be anticipate the possibility of Paula coming their way as a strong tropical storm on Friday.

[aikoaiko]

6. I predict Naples will get hit.

[Lochloosa]

8. Forecast models are all over the place. I think you will be watching this one for a long time

[malaise]

9. She's now moving NNE

at 4mph.

The good news is she won't be intense.
Wonder where this will end up.

[spanone]

10. great news!