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In America income is a better predictor of voting behavior than almost any other advanced democracy

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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-13-10 03:14 PM
Original message
In America income is a better predictor of voting behavior than almost any other advanced democracy
An interesting line in this Yglesias entry. It is not surprising, I suppose... with so many political boundaries for so long it makes sense that religion, ethnicity, language and region would be greater drivers of voter identity than in the US, so ironically we are on some ways a more class-ist society that some with a much more overt sense of class.

The Forever War

Ann Friedman has an excellent column revisiting Andrew Sullivan’s notion that Barack Obama could somehow end the “culture war” in American politics. As she observes, it doesn’t seem to have happened, and the belief that it might happen is something of a mirage: “One of the great errors of defining the culture war of the 1980s and 1990s as primarily about women’s and gay rights is that liberals got the idea that this was a war we could win.”

That frame saw the evident progress on specific issue as foretelling some kind of ultimate victory. We can all watch Mad Men today and agree—liberal and conservative alike—that the triumph of the civil rights movement was a good thing and that women should be able to undertake meaningful careers outside the teaching and nursing professions. Public opinion turns steadily more favorable to the claims of gay and lesbian equality. But Friedman says “The underlying sentiment that has fueled this conflict from the start — that only certain Americans are “real Americans” who deserve rights and respect — has not gone away.”

I think that’s right. Circa the year 2000 (plus or minus five years) you commonly heard that American politics differed from Europe in being primarily driven by cultural issues rather than economic ones. But as you can read in Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State or Polarized America: The Dance of Ideology and Unequal Riches the reverse is actually the case and in America income is a better predictor of voting behavior than in almost any other advanced democracy. That should tell us that insofar as things change, they’re likely to change in terms of more emphasis on culture/identity issues if the US became a more typical country. What’s more, if you look at the history of debates on race and American identity you see that the culture is remarkably adept at continually redefining boundaries in such a way as to make them perennially problematic.

For my part, I think this is a regrettable reality. Some of the questions that fall under this rubrik are really core questions of rights and human equality and they’re rightly the subject of hot political debates. But culture and identity questions also serve to have a poisonous impact on things like transportation and land-use policy, whereby issues that should be primarily about the allocation of scarce resources swiftly turn into cultural flashpoints in an unenlightening way. Still, the reality is that politics generally isn’t “about policy” in that kind of way and likely never will be.


http://yglesias.thinkprogress.org/2010/09/the-forever-war/
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bluestateguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-13-10 03:24 PM
Response to Original message
1. Then how does one explain this?
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TheKentuckian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-13-10 03:34 PM
Response to Reply #1
5. Generality versus an exception.
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izquierdista Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-13-10 03:34 PM
Response to Reply #1
6. With enough hand waving.....
...to make pigs fly.
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provis99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-13-10 04:44 PM
Response to Reply #1
16. I'm not sure what you disagree with here.
Edited on Mon Sep-13-10 04:44 PM by provis99
The chart you show shows the poor overwhelmingly vote Democratic, and Republicans gain votes as the income increases. Which is precisely what the OP says.
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pnwmom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-13-10 03:28 PM
Response to Original message
2. If that is the case then how come Democrats aren't winning more?
Doesn't make sense. I think a lot of Rethugs are working and middle class people who are voting against their own self interest. And there are also plenty of Dems doing the same thing (the wealthier Dems, that is).
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Johonny Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-13-10 03:51 PM
Response to Reply #2
9. It's a mistake to think the wealthy benifit from RW ideas
They might short term but in the long term almost everyone loses following right wing ideas. So having a lot of money doesn't necessarily mean voting Dem means voting against self interest.
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pnwmom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-13-10 04:32 PM
Response to Reply #9
12.  I know what you're saying which is why
I've always voted Democratic even though this has often meant higher taxes because of our bracket. It is to our self-interest to live in a country where everyone has a fair chance at a good life.

But you're really supporting my point. The OP's link seems to say the opposite.


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JuniperLea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-13-10 03:31 PM
Response to Original message
3. That makes no sense...
Nope... not at all. See all the reasons noted by posters above; they nailed it.
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bluestateguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-13-10 03:33 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. Indeed.
If anything Democrats have become more popular with affluent voters since 1992 and less popular with the white working class since then.
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JuniperLea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-13-10 03:35 PM
Response to Reply #4
7. Right... because the white working class...
Has fed into the lies.
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The Magistrate Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-13-10 03:48 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. Indeed, Ma'am: Race, Gender, Marital Status, And Religiousity Are The Predictors
If only white married male church-going born-again Christians could vote, Republicans would carry the day by thirty percent margins....
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blindpig Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-13-10 03:52 PM
Response to Original message
10. It's pretty obvious...

The well off know that the government works for them, so does the working class, which is why so many of them fore go the dog & pony show.
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stray cat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-13-10 04:06 PM
Response to Original message
11. lower incomes often vote republican and more educated/wealthy democratic
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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-13-10 04:39 PM
Response to Original message
13. Note that Yglesias does not say "perfect correlation"
Edited on Mon Sep-13-10 04:43 PM by Kurt_and_Hunter
I do not know the numbers here but Matt Yglesias is a pretty reliable guy so I am not quick to dismiss the observation.

Many comments in this thread note, correctly, that among white people there is a distortion of pure class-based voting in that working class whites often vote Republican and wealthy whites often vote Dem.

That is true. It does not, however, contradict the statement in question.

There is a clear but imperfect income correlation in American voting. Dems get majorities among people making under 35K and huge majorities among the poor.

Yglesias says that the income/party correlation is higher in the US than almost any other developed democracy.

That implies that the income/party correlation is even less perfect elsewhere than here.

(Imagine Northern Ireland forty years ago. Surely political attitudes there correlated much more with religion than with class.)
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Hannah Bell Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-13-10 04:39 PM
Response to Original message
14. it's the best predictor of nearly everything.
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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-13-10 04:40 PM
Response to Reply #14
15. True to your avatar
:hi:
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provis99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-13-10 04:51 PM
Response to Original message
17. what Red State, Blue State says is essentially this:
Poor people vote according to class, and hence vote Democratic. As one gets richer, class issues matter less and less, and cultural issues matter more and more. So income is a good predictor of poorer citizens votes, but a poor predictor of middle class and rich votes. So Yglesias is partly wrong (probably didn't read the book).
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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-13-10 04:55 PM
Response to Reply #17
18. The point made is comparative to other nations
The question is whether income is a better predictor here than in other advanced democracies, not whether it is a perfect predictor here.

I don't have an argument. Just clarifying the terms.
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