Democratic ranks have sunk to 30% of the registered vote.

[Usrename]

We've lost about 20% of our faithful in the two years since the election.


http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/Party-Affiliation.aspx


I am wondering, is there any explanation for this fact?


I have my own ideas. If anyone has some other explanation, let's hear it.


Maybe gallup has it wrong and there are better numbers. Could that be it?


I know Obama has good numbers among those who remain, but why have so many left?

[dkf]

1. We haven't shown we are good job producers.

[Vincardog]

2. I did not leave the Democratic party, the Democratic party left me.

[City Lights]

25. !

:thumbsup:

[blondeatlast]

3. Edit: my math is wrong--but the OP's is more wrong as pointed out by some

more math-savvy DUers.

[phleshdef]

4. 33-30 = 20?

I'm not sure which is off more, your math skills or your chart comprehension abilities.

[SteppingRazor]

7. I noticed the same thing. At no point is the registered Dems number at 40% much less 50. n/t

[yella_dawg]

9. Actually...

(33-30)/33 ~= 9%

Math problems abound.

[phleshdef]

16. It depends on how you want to interpret what the OP is saying.

I initially interpreted it as saying we lost 20 points, which would mean we would go from 33% to 13%. If thats not how they meant it, thats fine, they are still dead wrong either way.

[Usrename]

20. Where do you get 33% from?

[phleshdef]

23. 2008 Nov 7-9, Democrats 33%.

[Usrename]

21. And (37-30)/37 = 19

Where does the 33 come from?

[blondeatlast]

10. Or both. Certainly the poster could not have thought that no one would bother to check

for themselves.

[depakid]

11. Aside from the fact that Gallup's numbers are spurious

A 3 point difference from 33 amounts to a loss of a little over 9%

[phleshdef]

17. I don't know if the OP meant we lost 20 points off the total percentage or what.

Regardless of how they meant it, they are wrong.

[Usrename]

19. Where are you getting this 33 number?

[surrealAmerican]

24. ... and three points is likely within the margin of error ...

... for this type of poll, meaning we are, in fact, seeing little or no change.

[depakid]

33. Yep- and even the raw data is suspect (for a number of reasons)

The actual numbers from registrations state by state are available, though I'm not sure how recent that they are for each state.

[yella_dawg]

5. Consider that in one polling cycle...

In one polling cycle (end dates 11/9 to 11/16 '08) the percentage moved more than it has in your time frame (11/9 to present). The "I voted for Obama" effect. Hard to take seriously.

[murielm99]

6. I believe that a large number of those lost were only Obama

supporters. They had never voted before, and may not vote again. They were new enough to the process that they don't understand the critical importance of voting in midterm and local elections.

Those people are easily swayed by media propaganda, because they novices. It is up to the Democratic party activists to get back to them and make sure they get out to vote in the midterms.

[Usrename]

22. There will be empirical data for this.

The actual number of registered voters is known. And we know their party affiliation also. There should be better data than poll data.

on edit> I agree with your analysis, I should have said that.

[old mark]

8. I used to hear that only 25% or so identified themselves as Republicans...

so we can still beat them if we decide not to give it away and actually vote in November.

mark

[BzaDem]

12. Your data does not indicate that the people who left the party were ever "faithful" to the party.

A very common behavior is for centrist independents to become Democrats in a Democratic wave election, and then leave the Democratic party after a Democratic president's first term (as the wave shifts to the Republicans). The reverse is common when Republicans are elected President.

If this were true in this case (your data does not indicate one way or the other), that would be centrists leaving due to a leftward lurch, not liberals leaving due to a rightward lurch.

[Cleita]

13. Doesn't Gallup have a habit of polling mostly in

Middle America and the South? I've never been polled by Gallup here on the West Coast and I'll bet that very few on either coast have been polled. Just a thought because I could be wrong. However, I would really like to know if anyone on either coast has been polled by this company?

Also, I believe many Democrats have registered as Independents because they are disgusted with our conserva-Dems taking over the Party. I do believe they will still vote for the Democrats for the most part.

[depakid]

14. Let's just say they've been know to "be creative" with their multi-stage clustering

And why not?

Even DUer's (who you'd think would be more savvy) take whatever they put out (even absurd conclusions) as the Gospel truth.

[Hansel]

15. Statistically there is not that much going on there.

It was down to 30 in May and back up to 36 in June. Back to 30 in July and seems to have leveled off. But this number has jumped around enough to just look like sampling error.

People are not from month to month changing their party affiliation. Most people don't spend a lot of time thinking about politics much less running in to change their party affiliations monthly.

I've heard a lot of Hillary Clinton supporters calling into talk shows recently who say they are changing to independents, and that could be some of it. But I don't think there is really a lot going on here.

[uponit7771]

18. ****READ THE POLL AGAIN**** 2010 Aug 27-30 = 30% while in Aug 2008 = 36%

[Hello_Kitty]

31. Which means the number of self-identified Democrats is 20% smaller than it was in 2008. eom

[WI_DEM]

26. You're numbers are way off--it was never 53%

[Hello_Kitty]

29. I don't think the OP meant 20 percentage points

More like the chunk of the population identifying as Democrats is now 20% smaller than it was in 2008.

[JerseygirlCT]

27. Too much hope, too little audacious change nt

[blondeatlast]

32. Or too little middle-school math. nt

[cap]

28. screw the numbers, just pull the D lever

dammit, if we do not get out and vote, we will hose ourselves for the next 10 years. It's the state elections and the governorships that really matter in the upcoming redistricting. If there is a republican tidal wave, they will redraw the lines for the next 10 years.

Our government is so screwed up with Republicans burrowing into key positions. Obama can't even clean up the Civil Rights Commission such that they can hold a conference that real civil rights leaders will attend.

We are fighting to hold the line; Republicans are fighting to advance their line. If they control the redistricting, we are screwed.

It's not piss and moan for the next 2 years and hope for something better in 2012. There won't be any better. 1 out of 7 Americans are below the poverty line ($10K for an individual; $22K for a family of 4). 25% of our Kids are on food stamps. COBRA extension did not pass for the unemployed. That means people are dying or their lives will end earlier due to lack of medication.

Redistricting will literally kill people. There aint no room to give!

Get up people and save your selves! Go slap the donkey to get it to go in the right direction. We need to pull the lever and then get in our elected officials' face early and often to remind them where to go.

[onethatcares]

30. do you actually believe the gallup numbers?

I have been doing their surveys for about 8 years and personally I don't think they count anything that might go against the rightwing.

I don't believe them. That's all.