Is the Middle East on the Brink of Another War?

[bik0]

Tuesday's cross-border firefight between Israeli and Lebanese government forces might simply have been a misunderstanding. And the rockets fired from Gaza and the Israeli air strikes on the besieged border territory over the past week could be viewed as periodic blips in business as usual on that front. By the same token, last Friday's unprecedented joint visit to Beirut by the leaders of Saudi Arabia and Syria could be viewed simply as a move to stop the conflict between their Lebanese proxies from turning nasty. And British Prime Minister David Cameron's pleas to Turkey to keep open its communication channels with Israel's leaders are quotidian diplomatic common sense. Viewed in a wider context, however, each of those events could be signs of why many in the Middle East believe that despite the outward calm, the region may be on the brink of another catastrophic war.

A new report based on extensive conversations with regional decisionmakers, released Monday, Aug. 2, by the International Crisis Group, the respected mediation organization of former diplomats, warns of the possibility of war. "The situation in the Levant is ... exceptionally quiet and uniquely dangerous, both for the same reason," the Crisis Group warns. "The buildup in military forces and threats of an all-out war that would spare neither civilians nor civilian infrastructure, together with the worrisome prospect of its regionalization, are effectively deterring all sides." But while Hizballah and its regional backers, Syria and Iran, believe that the buildup in the Shi'ite militia's arsenal and capabilities is deterring Israel from launching attacks on any of them, Israel views the acquisition by Hizballah of a missile arsenal capable of raining destruction on Israeli cities as an intolerable threat. "As Hizballah's firepower grows," the Crisis Group notes, "so too does Israel's desire to tackle the problem before it is too late ... What is holding the current architecture in place is also what could rapidly bring it down."
(See rare pictures of Hizballah's youth movement.)

Should a new war break out, Israel is determined to strike a devastating blow more quickly than it did during the last conflict, in which it failed in its objective of destroying Hizballah. It has publicly warned that it would destroy Lebanese civilian infrastructure and that Syria, as Hizballah's armorer, would not be off-limits. But Hizballah believes its capacity to fire missiles into Tel Aviv is key to restraining Israel from returning to finish off the Shi'ite militia. And, of course, amid regional tensions over Iran's nuclear program, members of the self-styled "axis of resistance" — Iran, Syria, Hamas and Hizballah — have deepened their alliance, raising the possibility of any one of those groups joining the fray should any of the others come under attack from Israel or the U.S.


Read more: http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2008156,00.html#ixzz0vayQfPWF

[Journeyman]

1. "…and she mulled over the international situation, which was desperate, as usual."

-Tom Robbins, Even Cowgirls Get the Blues

[peacetalksforall]

2. At the peak of fear a year ago, we were told by some on DU that Iran wants a war as much as Israel.

I see all kinds of words and practice excercises that Israel has gone through during the last year, I've heard nothing about Iran except for its loud mouth leader and some Aytollahs.

Be prepared for concocted events to trigger a war and I don't care how often people say Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, Hamas Hezbollah, the trigger will come from Israel. Israel leaders are panting for war. The UK and US are there also and Australia/NZ and Canada will be there as well as France and some other European countries. There is carry-over momentum from Cheney.

I resent all leaders of all countries who would allow this. There is no humanity in these countries if they help Israel, if they have a plan, if they do it this summer.

The innocents of the world don't deserve creature leaders and all the murderous military and intelligence and reverend and rabbis bankers and media and weapon and service corporations and think tanks and lobbyists who plan and decide this kind of death.