Gulf oil to keep flowing while cap is analyzed

[marmar]

NEW ORLEANS – The plan to start choking off oil gushing into the Gulf of Mexico was suddenly halted as government officials and BP said further analysis must be done Wednesday before critical tests could proceed.

No explanation was given for the decision, and no date was set for when testing would begin on the new, tighter-fitting cap BP installed on the blown-out well Monday.

In the meantime, oil continued spewing into the Gulf.

The oil giant had been scheduled to start slowly shutting off valves Tuesday on the cap, aiming to stop the flow of oil for the first time in three months. BP was initially ahead of schedule on its latest effort to plug the leak. The cap was designed to be a temporary fix until the well is plugged underground.

A series of methodical, preliminary steps were completed before progress stalled. Engineers spent hours on a seismic survey, creating a map of the rock under the sea floor to spot potential dangers, like gas pockets. It also provides a baseline to compare with later surveys during and after the test to see if the pressure on the well is causing underground problems.

An unstable area around the wellbore could create bigger problems if the leak continued elsewhere in the well after the cap valves were shut, experts said. ............(more)

The complete piece is at: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100714/ap_on_bi_ge/us_gulf_oil_spill

[SpiralHawk]

1. Ummmmm hmmmmm

Okay...Pardon me while my, um, confidence in BP descends to republiconian levels...

[fasttense]

2. Hmm, I guess it didn't work. There is probably another leak. n/t

[dipsydoodle]

3. Thanks for what appears to be an accurate informative link.

It had already been reported that that once sealed it would then be possible to determine accurately what the actual rate of flow has been over the few months or so. It will also show whether or not in fact oil and gas are escaping up the side of the pipe from damaged seals at a much lower depth below the sea floor. I can understand their reticence to seal if there is doubt about the stability of the area surrounding the pipe - better safe than sorry given a crevasse could prove to be seal proof.

[Ganja Ninja]

4. Forget about all this pressure testing and just pipe the oil to the surface

until the relief well is finished. We don't need BP to roll the dice one more time with our future on the line. They've proven they don't know what they're doing.

[dipsydoodle]

5. Your administration disagrees with that

BP Plc delayed testing a new cap placed over its leaking Gulf of Mexico oil well to give scientists more time to study the procedure used to measure pressure levels.

BP and government officials said they still intend to conduct the assessment, which BP and the Obama Administration will use to determine whether the leak can be safely sealed with a 40-foot (12-meter) stack of valves bolted to the top of the well on July 12.

The trial was scheduled to start yesterday. It was postponed after BP met with National Incident Commander Thad Allen, Energy Secretary Steven Chu and a government team of scientists and industry experts, who decided more analysis needed to be done before they proceeded, Allen said in a statement last night.

“We continue to prepare and review protocols for the well integrity test, including the seismic mapping run that was made around the well site this morning,” Allen said. “As a result of these discussions, we decided that the process may benefit from additional analysis.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-14/bp-delays-test-of-new-cap-at-leaking-gulf-well-until-u-s-gives-go-ahead.html

I would suggest their knowledge of the subject is superior to your own.

[Ganja Ninja]

9. There are experts that are questioning the safety of doing this when we're

only a few weeks away from killing this from the bottom. KO had one on last night.

And I'm not impressed with BP's expertise.

[dipsydoodle]

10. Have you any idea

of the degree of accuracy needed to kill that from the bottom. Basic trigonometry will give you a clue. It will be no mean feat but I obviously hope they succeed.

[Statistical]

14. 2 feet of accuracy. They need to hit the main well casing.

They are using sounding equipment to "home in" on the main well.

They drill some, then stop, charge the main well with an electrical current, which creates a magnetic field. The relief well crew measures the magnetic flux, feeds it into some computers and that gives them an deflection (side to side angle), elevation angle (up down angle), and distance.

They then adjust the drill angle and drill closer. Stop, do sounding, adjust, drill. Keep doing that slowly closing in on the main well.

Essentially they need to hit a 2 foot pipe with a 4 foot drill bit 5 miles under the surface in the dark. Essentially impossible without sounding. The company that is doing the drilling has done 40 relief wells and the lead engineer said they hit 40 of 40 on first try.

[dipsydoodle]

17. Thanks for that explanation - much appreciated.

I had been totally unable to figure how on earth tbey do it. Fingers crossed for the company doing it then. Hopefully they won't hit another gas pocket the pressure of which was alleged to be unprecedented.

[Statistical]

19. Even the gas pocket was contained until BP drew down the drilling mud.

The DWH was fine until the drilling mud was removed at which point there was not enough pressure to contain the methane gas and it rose to the surface violently. That gas descended like a cloud (being heavier than air) onto the rig. Millions of cubic feet in a few seconds. Then some of the gas found a spark, or hot surface, or other ignition point. BOOM.

At the moment the relief well intersects the main well it has 6 miles up mud behind it.

It is simple physics. The pressure generated by that column of mud (via acceleration by gravity) is greater than the pressure pushing oil up the well. As a result the mud "wins" and slowly forces its way into main well (pushing the oil column back down main well).

[dipsydoodle]

21. Did you mean

lighter than air ?...........which methane is as a gas or heavier in liquid state.

[Statistical]

23. Hmm... yeah your are right.

Maybe it wasn't a methane explosion then. Maybe is was some of the heavier gaseous hydrocarbons that settled onto the rig and ignited.

The rig drilling stack extends about 50ft above the drilling floor so you are right methane would be lighter than air and thus never be in position to detonate. It would have escaped out of the drilling stack and just kept going up into the atmosphere.

[yella_dawg]

26. The methane came up as a hydrate crystal (solid).

Reports were that there were snowdrifts on the drill floor. Methane ice. The gas/oil mixture cools as it rises in the well bore because the undersea rock is relatively cool. When it hits the blowout preventer, it expands rapidly. Expanding gas cools dramatically as in refrigerators and air conditioners. The low temps, pressure, and water cause "hydrate formation" which is a fancy term for methane snow. That's what screwed up the original top hat ploy.

Reports stated that drifts of methane snow flashed to gas and exploded on the drill floor. About as horrifying a thing as I can imagine. Standing in explosive snow drifts.

[Statistical]

29. That makes sense.

The hydrates survives long enough to blanket the floor with "snow" before melting releasing explosive gas.

Yeah it literally had to be hell on earth being on that drill floor.

[yella_dawg]

30. It pretty much has to be snowing on the sea floor too.

After a three month snowstorm, it must be drifting deep down there.

[dipsydoodle]

27. As far as I'm aware

such gas is always at least 90% methane. What I'm not sure of was its state was when it blew the BOP - liquid I'd assume at that depth and hence pressure. The BOP was rated at 20.000lbs / sq" - beefiest in existence. The pressure may apparently have been considerably in excess of that. See reply#6 here http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=4458573#4458628

[Pharaoh]

as long as the sea floor

does not already have breaches due to the pressure put on it in top kill.

[Statistical]

25. Breaches in the casing ABOVE the junction point are not relevent.

The thing to understand is earth is permeable. Water, oil, other fluids can flow through earth. Underground acquifiers for examples are giant lakes under water. They are simply water flowing through permeable earth (water between the dirt).

Still if the entire earth was permeable the oil would simply all flow to the surface. So at some point in the geology there is non-permeable rock. Oil companies call that the cap rock.

When you drill a well you drill through the cap rock.

permeable rock
CAP ROCK
permeable rock containing oil

The junction point is in the cap rock. So any breaches in the casing ABOVE the junction point don't matter. Take a garden hose and cut a bunch of holes in it. Now turn on the water. Most of the water flows out the end (damaged bop) however some leaks through the holes. try capping the end of the hose (difficult huh) even if you do it the water flows out of the cuts in the hose with greater force & flow.

Now try kinking the house close to the spigot. Everything downstream is simply cut off. The relief well is drilling into cap rock. The situation above the relief well is no material. The relief well will seal the flow out of the BOP as well as an other leaks through damaged casing into permeable rock.

[Pharaoh]

31. Praying it works!!

[KeyWester]

15. "Your administration disagrees with that"

Does that mean "Obama isn't my president" ?

[Statistical]

7. Testing is 2 days max. So it is simply risk vs reward.

Risk: 2 days of uncontrolled flow = 120K - 200K barrels
Reward: no flow until relief wells are complete.

Given the capture system doesn't capture 100% of the oil (and still burns the majority of what is captured) the total release of not trying the test is more (over next 30 days until relief wells are complete) than the most the test will release.

[Ganja Ninja]

11. You're way underestimating the risk.

This test could damage the well bore even more. It might even make it harder to employ the bottom kill. What's wrong with playing it safe and piping the oil to the surface for the next few weeks? They're saying this cap will capture better than 90% of the oil.

[Statistical]

13. The test will open the valves if they detect a lack of pressure rising.

Couple points:
a) they will be increasing pressure slowly and looking for lack of response from well (indicating that oil is leaking out somewhere else (into substrata). If that happens they abort, open the cap wide open and go into capture operations.

b) BP has been saying they will get 90% of the oil ever step of the way. The original siphon which pulled 800 bpd was suppose to get 90% of the oil. I doubt the new capture will get 90% of the oil anymore than any other "90%" has. Even if they could get 90% any hurricane could suspend capture operations for days or weeks which means 0% capture & 100% flow. Worse still the majority of what is captured is burned so it isn't like there is no environmental impact for the "capture".

c) Relief well doesn't need an intact bore to seal the well. They are drilling into non-permeable rock. If the bore is damaged there the oil still can't seep out. Any damage above the junction point is "cut off" by the relief well seal. As far as "weeks away" it could be a much as 30 days away and that means millions more barrels.

Obviously the administration agrees the risk is worth the reward.

[Ganja Ninja]

20. "Obviously the administration agrees the risk is worth the reward."

The same administration that opened up drilling on the east coast only a few days before this all began. Obviously they want this to end as fast as possible for political reasons so their assessment of risk is questionable.

[n2doc]

6. This is all crap, and they should know it

The top kill failed because the upper part of the well is compromised and cannot handle high pressure. It leaked when they tried to stuff heavy mud down the pipe to stop the flow. All they can do is let it flow at some rate, low pressure, and collect like they have been before the new cap. The deep relief wells are the only hope for stoppage.

I suppose if the pressure has dropped significantly in the well then maybe blocking it will stop most of the flow. But I doubt that is the case.

I suspect the reason for this flow and pressure testing is because they still do not have an accurate measure of the rate of oil spillage, and need this for litigation purposes.

[Statistical]

8. "and need this for litigation purposes. "

Why would BP need an accurate flow rate for litigation. If anything BP wants there to never be an accurate flow rate for litigation.

In court the burden of proof is on the govt. The govt has a fine of $4300 per barrel it is the govt job to prove the amount of oil released. A lack of information helps not hurts BP. It likely will allow them to settle for less.

Say govt believes the well is leaking at 100K bpd but can prove definitively that it is leaking at least 40K bpd. They may settle with BP for the difference simply because the govt could lose in court. BP doesn't need to prove the leak is lower much in the same way a defense doesn't need to prove they didn't do the crime.

[n2doc]

12. I suspect the Government is requiring them to do this

BP doesn't have limitless power.

Also, by measuring now, after so much oil has come out, the flow may be less than before. If they establish a lower baseline then they can fight the high numbers in court with this evidence.

[blindpig]

16. "BP doesn't have limitless power. "

Mebbe not, but they've got enough to prioritize this operation as an exercise in cost containment. It's all about them.

[Baclava]

18. They had containment - why risk cracking open the whole thing. Just finish the relief wells, pronto

1. Get new cap installed.
2. Collect virtually all the oil being spilled and wait for the relief wells to be completed.

That was the original plan, right?

Now we get... "Hey, I know - let's close it all off and see what happens!"
"Yeah, yeah! Let's do that, it sounds sexy! We could get our pichers inda papers!"

"Yeah - What's the worst that could happen?"

[Ganja Ninja]

24. Exactly.

They start trying to put more pressure on this well bore and then decide it's not safe so they slam it open and bits of well pipe and casing break away and get driven into the blow-out preventer. Then it's weeks of uncontrolled and uncapped flow. But hey BP's luck has to change some day.

[Baclava]

28. It all just sounds so hit or miss, does anyone know who's in charge of these decisions?

With the relief well nearing completion why would they take a chance on catastrophically damaging the well after they worked months on the re-cap to finally contain the flow?

a full shut-off sounds pretty risky to me

Yeah - 'what could possibly go wrong'

[LisaL]

32. I don't know what they are doing.

The tests have been delayed-is that because the initial tests showed something bad, or for some other reason? Why don't they connect the collection devices to the cap and collect the oil?

[Baclava]

33. I agree

Sounds like somebody upstairs in management finally looked at what they're planning and said...

"You're going to do WHAT? hold on Tex..."

No excuse for dumping an extra 50,0000 barrels of oil a day into the gulf right now, from my point of view.
Put the damn containment rig back on while they argue about the well integrity test!

What a goat rope.

[Statistical]

34. Heard on the radio BP wants the US govt to ok the procedure. BP is wating the "go ahead" from govt

[Ganja Ninja]

35. So they can share the blame if things go wrong.

If this test damages the well and they can't put a containment cap back on then it will gush uncontrolled until they can kill it from the bottom.

[Statistical]

37. It does seem they are looking for cover. "The US govt said to do it".

[Baclava]

38. Beat me to it.

Or they know they might not get the relief well finished before the whole area collapses in a giant sinkhole.

who knows?



Somebody is listening to us...


From a Reuters update:

"Nansen Saleri, former head of reservoir management for Saudi Aramco, the world's largest oil company, told Reuters BP should scrap the test and keep using surface vessels to collect leaking crude until a relief well intercepts and plugs the leak by mid-August."

[northernlights]

22. they've already removed the earlier article,which went into some detail

This was just an hour ago, and there was a paragraph deep in the article that talked more about the instability of the area, possible gas underneath, and included a very scary quote about how incredibly dangerous/difficult the situation is. It sounded a lot like what had been "leaking" on the Oil Drum in past weeks ( although without the hyperbole and claims that the whole seabed could collapse, the methane could blow up the whole region, etc)

I wonder if somebody involved spoke out of turn to the mainstream media, and BP, er, the government told them to pull the story...

[Rex]

36. They don't want to be responsible for blowing up a huge portion of the sea floor

or large chunks of North America is my guess.