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Memo to Congress: Unemployment Trumps Everything
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Several months out from election day the Democrats’ prospects are not encouraging. If nothing else, history is against them since midterm elections usually go poorly for the president’s party. Theoretically their base should be fired up. Health insurance reform, the stimulus and revamping the student loan system (possibly the most undiluted win for progressives) are all items they can point to. Financial reform looks like it may go through, though even that modest and much reduced package is causing a mass freak out among the Masters of the Universe. Immigration reform has a shot, so does climate change. All in all, lots to celebrate, right?
As it happens, though, Republicans are considerably more energized; noting the “enthusiasm gap” Steve Benen warned: “The awakening next January will likely be a rude one — intractable gridlock, endless and pointless investigations, and a progressive policy agenda brought to an immediate halt. Hell, presidential impeachment might even find itself on the table.” Such dire warnings seem to be part of the messaging about what might happen if the GOP gets control of the House or the Senate. The problem is, “be afraid, be very very afraid” is not terribly motivating. Republicans spent two election cycles warning voters about Nancy Pelosi bringing her San Francisco values to the heartland, and it did not work out too well for them.
More importantly, it ignores the elephant in the room. Unemployment is stuck near ten percent, and that will sink the Democrats in Congress if it does not come down. The only possible exception would be if they put forth another big stimulus bill and forced Republicans to spend a long, hot summer blocking it in the most high profile way possible - with an actual filibuster. The various procedural maneuvers Republicans have used to bring the Senate to a crawl do not really register outside the Beltway. In a way that makes sense; Democrats have the majority, and if they cannot implement their policies with it they deserve to be judged on that. Voters do not, and should not, care about why things are not getting done, they just care that they are not.
Getting millions of people back to work will brighten the perception of this Congress more than everything else it has done so far. If Congress cannot improve the jobs situation then any losses in the midterms will be deserved. It will not be because a complacent or apathetic base took them for granted, nor that voters do not truly appreciate all the hard work it has done, nor that the rise of the mighty teabagger movement has ushered in a new era of conservative ascendance. It will be because there have been massive job losses and our leaders have looked on passively, month after month, as it festered.more"
http://www.pruningshears.us/pruning-shears/2010/7/8/memo-to-congress-unemployment-trumps-everything.html