BP's Blowout Preventer is Leaning and Might Fall Over

[ensho]

http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2010/06/bps-blowout-preventer-is-leaning-and.html


As I have previously noted, it is now clear that there is damage to BP's well beneath the sea floor.

Recently-retired Shell Oil President John Hofmeister told MSNBC yesterday:


The question is whether there is enough mechanical structure left at the base of the reservoir to hold the cement when they start pouring cement in .

***

The more oil we some coming out, the more it tells you that the whole casing system is deteriorating. The fact that more oil would be coming out rather than less oil, would suggest that the construction within the pipe is offering no resistance whatsoever, and we’re just getting a gusher.

-snip text and video-

One of the dangers which the relief wells are racing against is that the blowout preventer (BOP) is leaning ... and might fall over.


The well casing itself is attached to the BOP. And - as discussed below - the BOP is very heavy. So if the BOP fell over, it would likely severely damage the structural integrity of the casing.

As Think Progress points out:


In a press teleconference Monday, National Incident Commander Thad Allen announced that the riser package is tilting “10 or 12 degrees off perpendicular,” twice the 5.5 degree tilt of the Leaning Tower of Pisa:

-snip-

The integrity of the well has become a major topic of discussion among engineers and geologists.

-long snip of what everybody thinks-

Indeed, oil industry expert Rob Cavner says that he wouldn't be surprised if the BOP ended up falling over entirely:

-snip video-
--------------------------------


sigh

[CaliforniaPeggy]

1. Fuck.

[AsahinaKimi]

10. totally agree

Peggy, its horrible!

[BeFree]

2. Good

If it falls over, it may crimp the pipe and reduce the flow.

The BOP is a useless piece of crap anyway.

Remember, at the bottom of the hole is just a 6, or 7 inch round pipe. If we get that exposed they can drop something down the hole and plug it better.

Let the damned thing fall over.

[Javaman]

11. I think you missed the point...

"crimping" the pipe won't do any good. The integrity of the ocean floor around the pipe is failing. Oil is leaking now from not just the pipe but also from the ocean floor.

If that 450 ton behemoth falls over, it could make things immensely worse, much sooner.

edit: upon reading the oil drum link, I don't believe, that the BOP will fall over, but things have been known to change rapidly.

[BeFree]

17. DougR says so

What does Obama say about the ocean floor failing?

Methinks DougR has a theory, and that's all it is.
And it distracts from BP's clusterfuck, and where is the science? Eh?

What do the gummint scientists say?

**crickets**

[Mimosa]

21. Crickets indeed. We're hearing NOTHING from our government on this. n/t

[Javaman]

33. did you read the article on the Oil Drum?

While dougR makes some good points, he's far from the final authority on the subject.

And call me crazy, but I usually like to get several opinions on something before I lend credence to any single person.

go on and believe dougR, but I choose to listen to the more informed people on the oil drum, along with several other sites before I form an opinion.

[FedUpWithIt All]

14. I would think that a crimp would simply put more pressure on the cracks.

The integrity of the whole length seems to be failing. There are serious pressure issues and a complete blockage of the BOP would likely make the whole thing much worse. Imagine oil/gas pouring out the cracks in the pipe length and rushing toward the surface of the seafloor, gathering sand, rock and other debris as it goes. All at very high pressure. You would have increasingly bigger holes.

[BeFree]

16. That's a theory

But just a theory.

The hole at the bottom of the well is just 7 inches round. Only so much oil can make it through that. It is miles deep in rock. Rock that held the oil there for centuries.

Let the damn thing fall over and lets see what happens.

[FedUpWithIt All]

31. Let's see what happens? Are you serious?

Considering the very serious consequences of every single action going on in the Gulf right now, i want very serious and careful analysis and control of every single happening or event. Let's see what happens...:eyes:.

As for theories, yours or theirs...hmmm

"Everybody's worried about all of this. That's all people are talking about," said Don Van Nieuwenhuise, director of geoscience programs at University of Houston. He said the things that BP has being doing to try to stop the oil or gain control of it have been tantamount to repeatedly hitting the well with a hammer and sending shock waves down the pipe. "I don't think people realize how delicate it is."

"There is a very high level of concern for the integrity of the well," said Bob Bea, the University of California Berkeley engineering professor known to New Orleanians for investigating the levee failures after Katrina, who now has organized the Deepwater Horizon Study Group. Bea and other engineers say that BP hasn't released enough information publicly for people outside the company to evaluate the situation.

A more likely problem, he said, is that oil could find its way into open spaces in the casing string, known as the annulus, and travel up the well in areas where it isn't supposed to be. This scenario could be one reason why more oil than expected is flowing at the containment cap that BP installed earlier this month to collect the oil.

Bea is more concerned about the worst-case scenario than Van Nieuwnhuise. In an answer to a question, Bea said, "Yes," there is reason to think that hydrocarbons are leaking from places in the well other than the containment cap.

"The likelihood of failure is extremely high," Bea said. "We could have multiple losses of containment, and that's going to provide much more difficult time of trying to capture this (oil)."

I'll go with theirs.

[BeFree]

32. Good. Go.

Why doesn't the government push BP to release information?

The whole internet is abuzz with dougr, and here you tell us that the other scientists don't have any reason to claim anything else, and you are fed up with me???

Misdirection, i'd say.

[GeorgeGist]

34. Why wait ?

Knock it down now and see what happens.

It's just a theory based on rock solid evidence.

[BeFree]

35. They could lift it off

If they could unbolt it.

Is the Bop preventing them from putting a plug down the pipe?

Seems if they set a pipe like straw into the pipe in the ground they could capture much more of the oil.

Thing is all we've got is theories.

[northernlights]

15. NOT GOOD

if it falls over, it will NOT crimp the pipe and reduce the flow.

The pipe is basically all that is supporting the BOP, which weighs 450 tons. If it falls over, it may break through the soft and fractured floor and make the entire thing unpluggable.

Hence the race against time rumours that have been surfacing.

[BeFree]

18. It may crimp the pipe

And if it makes a clean break we can stick a plug down the hole.

Oil is coming up through the 7 inch pipe. There is no real science about the casing being broke or massive leaks other than the pipe.

If you have some real science, now would be a good time, eh?

[EOTE]

24. Wouldn't that just mean that the effective pressure is going to be much greater?

If the same volume of oil is flowing from the 7" opening as is coming out of the busted pipe which has a much larger diameter, the pressure from the 7" opening has to be far greater. Considering we're already dealing with several hundred or even thousands of PSI, the pressure at the 7" opening has to be several times that. How do you expect it to be easier to plug this smaller opening?

[BeFree]

29. Good question

At the 7 inch hole there is great pressure, the greatest. I don't know what pressure it is. Who does?

That is why the relief well will intersect it so low. The weight of all that mud piling up from several miles high, it is hoped, will overcome the pressure of the oil reservoir.

As far as my theory goes, given that the pipe tapers from @ 12 at the sea floor to 7 inches at the bottom, something say 8 inches around lowered into an open hole would close down the opening. Needle valves used in high pressure carburetors is where the needle theory comes from.

As far as I know, the Bop is keeping any needle like object from being inserted.

[EOTE]

30. This is far more pressure than any carburetor experiences.

I know we're dealing with a far greater scale here, but I can't imagine it will be any easier to plug a smaller hole rather than the larger one with far less pressure.

[northernlights]

37. the reason they stopped top kill was because mud was coming out

from the seabed. It was escaping from the damaged well casing as well as the BOP. that's why no matter how much pressure they pumped the mud with, it wasn't pushing the oil back.

That is also why they are now trying a bottom kill -- they are trying to in below the damage.

[dionysus]

26. correct me if i'm wrong. the oil is coming from a shaft drilled through solid rock 2 miles below

the ocean floor?

[northernlights]

36. not sure about the depth of the well

but the seabed is not all solid rock. The top of the seabed is soft, sandy sediment. And the well casing through it is damaged.

[MattBaggins]

20. yeah that would be brilliant

just great to have the thing fall over so that no cement could be pumped in once the relief wells are in place.

[BeFree]

23. Ummmm

The relief wells are to intersect a mile or more down in the earth.

The relief wells are not to be pumped, I don't believe, but to be a conduit to pump concrete down into the hole and plug it at the bottom.

This well is to be sealed shut.

Unless you have science that says otherwise, it is as I have written.

[MattBaggins]

25. I was under the impression that they would be needing the

original shaft as well to seal the well off.

As for being "as you have written" despite your arrogance you don't know what your talking about any more than I or the other posters in this thread so please do us all a favor and stop pretending you are a subject matter expert.

I don;t know what the hell is going on down there and neither do you.

[BeFree]

27. Actually

About a month ago I read the BP pdf about the relief wells.
Have it stored on the computer, I do.

You can read it too, from the BP pages, and then get back here and apologize. If you want.

[TransitJohn]

22. Why do you always opine on things you don't know about?

Just wondering.

[SidDithers]

3. dougr must be a happy guy...

his nonsense has gone mainstream.

Good Kos diary here discussing the issue.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/6/24/878834/-Fishgrease:-Booming-The-Bullsh

Sid

[suzie]

5. Thank you for that link.

It's reasonable and helpful, so it probably won't get much interest around the internet.

[Systematic Chaos]

4. Then we can all dance the horizontal BOP!

Thank you. I'm here all week. Try the fish! It's nice and oily moist!

[jaxx]

6. From the oil drum:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6655

profgoose posted this link and it's something everyone needs to read.

[profgoose]

12. thanks jaxx and Sid...

we've been trying to stem the viral tide that is dougr, but the dearth of information about what's actually going on just foments this kind of thing--and on this, the administration is not without blame.

if dougr *is* right, well, then it ain't gonna be much of a country to live in anyway.

[Bluenorthwest]

19. When you say 'we have been trying'

does this mean you and the mouse in your pocket, or what?

[SidDithers]

7. dougr's nonsense again discussed at The Oil Drum...

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6655

Thanks to Professor Goose for posting the link in a different DU thread.

Sid

[Turbineguy]

8. Shameless self-link

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=8632912&mesg_id=8633075

[enough]

9. Very clear rational explanation debunking this at Dkos link mentioned above:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/6/24/878834/-Fishgrease:-Booming-The-Bullsh

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

13. Isn't the gulf disaster bad enough as it is?

I don't get the constant need of some people to want to invent or want to believe patently absurd stories that make it worse.

[LisaL]

38. Exactly. The situation is bad enough without people

coming up with all sorts of doomsday scenarios.
It's awful enough as it is.

[Swede]

28. Is it leaning left or right?

nt

[dionysus]

39. it's a nuke plant event!