one to watch -- "60% chance of tropical cyclone formation in next 48 hours" -- heading to Gulf

[nashville_brook]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

(the allcaps is from the NOAA system...not me shouting)



FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN THE EASTERN TIP OF HONDURAS
AND JAMAICA HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS EVENING. SURFACE
PRESSURES HAVE BEEN FALLING IN THE AREA AND THERE HAS BEEN AN
INCREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[WeDidIt]

1. About a 40% chance it won't have an effect on the gusher area

I don't like the odds given how things have gone to this point. Given the potential tracks, looks like Mississippi and Alabama could suffer the worst effects.

[nashville_brook]

2. there's actually very little chance the Gulf will escape having a storm this year.

it's just a matter of time.

[anarch]

4. indeed

this year, next year...a bunch of years with the gulf full of oil and who knows what else, and severe weather patterns becoming "normal"


"And so castles made of sand fall in the sea, eventually"


:(

[bobw999]

3. Unfortunately conditions are very favorable right now.

If the system goes to the west of the spill it would create an onshore wind pushing oil toward the coast.

NOAA fact sheet on hurricanes and the oil spill- http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/hurricanes_oil_factsheet.pdf

[nashville_brook]

6. i'm really concerned about what is going to happen to FL's aquifer once that oil is pushed on shore,

and into the rivers and springs.

on edit: oil and DISPERSANTS. as if the oil weren't bad enough.

[Individualist]

5. Heat to fuel the storm

Water temperatures in the Gulf range from 86.0 to 90.5. http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/egof.html

:(

[bobw999]

7. And thats the concern for the season.

The Atlantic has record high ocean temperatures right now, higher than 2005. All that heat has to escape somehow, and it does so by spinning up these hurricanes.

[nashville_brook]

9. this summer is going to be a white-knuckle ride.

[nashville_brook]

8. there's also warming that's happening b/c of the oil. ugh. an it's an el Nino year.

[Individualist]

10. Exactly!

Because of that damn oil, water temperatures in the Gulf are certain to set record highs in July and August. :(

[Quixote1818]

11. El Nino's usually sheer off the top of storms and hinder development

I think El Nino is pretty week right now. However, it warmed the planet enough over the winter and spring to impact storm development. Probably part of why they are expecting quite an active season.

[nashville_brook]

12. morning kickee