We might be about to find out how a hurricane will impact the Gulf oil gusher

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A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year.



Forecast for 93L

NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1513

[Jim__]

1. I hope not.

I wouldn't expect the result to be an improvement over the current situation.

[JuniperLea]

2. I have NOAA and USGS on my favorites bar...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqscanv/

We've been rockin' and rollin' here in So Cal for a few weeks now, but I'm much more concerned with... I can't even name the horror right now... :cry:

[AndyA]

3. Oh gosh, that is not what the Gulf residents need right now.

If hurricanes could just skip a season, this would be the one to skip. I heard that this season was forecast to have the potential for some really nasty storms.

A friend of mine says it's God's way of sending a message to conservatives, since so many live in the south. I told him he sounded just like one of them! ;)

[obxhead]

6. Funny how the religious

will praise god for their good fortunes and not pin it on god for the bad ones. ;)

They hype up hurricane season every year. Sometimes they are damn close, others they are so far off it makes you wonder if they have any clue at all.

Personally I'm hoping for a mild one, or if it is bad it sticks mainly to the east coast and out of the gulf. Only time will tell.

[jpak]

4. model forecasts here

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=93&a=2

[WeDidIt]

5. Let's hope it breaks up. n/t

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7. Latest Computer Models

This thing is still not a depression but some models do show it developing. The latest models take it right into the gulf in 96 hours or so...