Life Beyond the Peak of Oil Production.........

[marmar]

.....maybe won't be so bad at all.

[Javaman]

1. Yeah, because none of that stuff is manufactured with oil...

:eyes:

[marmar]

2. I think you missed the point completely, but don't let that stop the stridency.....

nt

[earthside]

9. No. The point is ...

... that the use of petroleum in almost every product and means of transportation that we use is easily overlooked.

It would be nice to be "pie in the sky" and believe that Peak Oil, the end of the production plateau, and $200+ barrel oil is going to mean just that we get to ride in shiny trains instead of cars.

It doesn't mean that ... because we have procrastinated now for the past forty years and done very little to prepare for Peak Oil, it is going to mean severe distress and dislocation.

Sorry to rain on your cool photos of trains, but we blew that chance for the future when Reagan beat Carter. The more probable future now will most likely look like it does in Kunstler's "World Made By Hand."

[Odin2005]

11. Necessity is the mother of invention.

We will find other ways to get the carbon for plastics.

[Javaman]

15. do you even know what energy carrying capacity means?

are you even aware of the amount of things that are made from fossil fuel?

Do you know that out of a 42 gallon barrel of oil, after refined, produces more things per volume than that 42 gallons?

Do you know that 1 gallon of gasoline hold the equivalent amount of energy as 30 hours of human labor?

no one thing can replace oil.

We have lived in a very very unique era in history. And we pissed it all away by burning it up with automobiles.

Plastics can be made from a variety of sources. A VARIETY.

corn, potato and milk to name a few. But corn, potato and milk require land resources to grow and raise. Oil, was underground and required no land mass, other than it's extraction and refinement.

We have waited way too long to take up the slack that will be left to us when need grossly out paces production.

Everything we do, requires oil. EVERYTHING.

Look around you, everything that falls within your sight can be traced back to a fossil fueled power source.

Even solar, wind, tidal, and nuclear energy need fossil fuels to construct and manufacture the materials they require.

I truly believe people don't have the slightest concept concerning the gravity of our situation.

You know what they say about wishing in one hand and pooping in the other right? See which one fills up faster.

[Odin2005]

62. Do they have to be made from oil? No.

And it's not like the oil is going to run out all at once. Once we get beyond using it as a fuel the remaining oil used for plastics will last for a long time, plenty of time to develop alternatives.

Your problem is that you think the transition has to occur all at once, that's nonsense.

[Javaman]

66. are you on crack?

did I ever say it has to happen all at once?

man, you have this knack of putting words in peoples mouths.

given the fact that every single day that passes is one less day we have to make a transition, the time only grows shorter.

peak oil is about not meeting demand. If we get our demand met, I don't give a shit if there are trillions of barrels left, it won't be enough to make the transition.

So we have to start right now, actually we have to start 30 years ago. What could have been a soft landing will vary now from a hard stop to a crash into a brick wall. But we have to start now.

man, I don't know whose posts you are reading, but they certainly aren't mine.

And yes, you can use alt fuels, but the state of alt fuels are not sufficiently ramped up at the moment to take over production of anything.

Serious investment is needed. That is why it has to happen now.

But until then everything we do is based on oil. And technically speaking, alt fuel production is not a closed loop. It still requires fossil fuel to produce. (I'm speaking of biofuels). Once enough feed crop is maintained for alt fuels to be produced in enough quantity, then you can begin the run for a closed loop.

Man, unreal.

[Subdivisions]

32. Really? Please do go on... Edited to add:

Please answer Javaman's post. Thanks.

[kestrel91316]

39. We're doomed, then. I recommend you commit suicide so children can eat.

Sorry for being optimistic at times - my bad.

[Subdivisions]

43. What a stupid response.

Everybody knows you can't get into heaven by killing yourself.

[Javaman]

48. You seem to be the one to rush to say we are doomed.

I merely state that the issue is much larger than any one of us can truly comprehend. And until we understand the scope of the problem, one can't come up with a solution.

Damn, you love to jump to conclusions, don't you?

wow, just wow.

[bvar22]

55. One Ton of freight....

...can be shipped over 450 miles on one gallon of petroleum based fuel.

The Point IS, we CAN greatly reduce our consumption of petroleum by making a few basic changes.

[Javaman]

65. exactly right.

studies have shown we can reduce our consumption by up to 1/3 just through conservation.

But alas, we need real laws to achieve such a thing.

Hoping people will do it, doesn't appear to work.

[kestrel91316]

38. We're not running out of oil, we're running out of cheap oil. We need to make the

investment in infrastructure NOW, while it is economical to do so, rather than waiting until it costs 5x as much.

But you go right ahead and keep repeating RW talking points about it.

[Subdivisions]

40. Oil price is now 7x. So now the costs of transition are 7x, not 5. n/t

[Javaman]

49. Okay, come on, come clean, what type of drugs are you using?

Because I point out things are made from fossil fuel you think I'm a right wing stooge?

LOL that is rich.

I like to bring reality based solutions to the conversation, not pie in the eye bullshit.

Until we can grasp the size of the problem, no adequate solution can be offered.

Do you know what the difference is between sweet and sour crude? Do you know why they are called that?

easy oil, my friend is gone. You love to spout the talking points, though. If you actually had been paying attention, you will know that the production of sour crude now out paces sweet.

Wow, you really have no idea what you are talking about.

So come on, offer up a real world solution. You seem to enjoy cutting people down with your unfounded rhetoric. How about some facts?

Don't bring a knife to a gun fight.

[lunatica]

3. Vertical farms in cities, freeing up the land

[Odin2005]

13. I like that idea!

[Javaman]

17. Vertical farms are nice, but until we put in place adequate water capturing systems

vertical farming won't do use much good.

Plus the buildings that support them will still need power to make the raw materials need to construct them. Where will that come from?

The earth movers, derricks, cranes, etc will need to be powered. If they are battery operated, then new machinery will need to be invented and manufactured. Which will take power to create. The raw materials needed to be minded to manufacture those new construction products will also require power.

See how quickly it expands?

It's not just a matter of wishing it to happen. there is a whole series of events and products that need to be created from something via some sort of power to make those things happen.

[lunatica]

19. Nothing you have pointed out is insurmountable

And to dismiss it all as just wishing it to happen is condescending and narrow minded. It can be done.

[Javaman]

23. Show me where I dismissed anything?

I just stated the obvious. Everything requires energy to build and manufacture.

Why is that being dismissive?

Do you think things are created out of thin air?

I work in the architectural industry, believe me, we are on the cutting edge of what is required in regards to any buildings.

Do you know what the LEED program is?

How do you think cement is made? Do you know how much energy goes into making a brick? Do you even know that drywall has to be recycled?

These are the things that are thought about on a daily basis and have to be figured into when designing a "green" building.

Saying I'm being dismissive is completely disingenuous.

[Name removed]

42. Deleted message

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[lunatica]

4. The many uses of hemp

[Javaman]

20. hemp also requires water...

also on a large scale, it will require huge amounts of energy to farm and harvest.

If you wish to scale up hemp to wide use then it will require industrial sized combines. Which will require energy.

If you choose to use bio-fuel or a bio-diesel, then that fuel must use a vegetable based source. Which in turn will use huge amounts of farmable land that could otherwise be used for food production.

Which in turn will require huge amounts of water.

We currently use 20.1 million barrels of oil for our daily needs. If we conserve (we can drop our use 1/3 with out much of a difference). That still leaves us with about a 14 million barrel a day addiction.

One barrel of oil equals roughly 5.8 million Btu's. But since we only use 19.5 gallons of that for gasoline, let's stay with that for the argument.

One gallon of gasoline holds 115,000 Btu's of power. So the 19.5 gallons of gas from a barrel of oil holds 2,242,500 Btu's of power.

One acre of hemp equals 500 gallons of gasoline. Which translates to 115,000 Btu's per gallon x 500 equals 57,500,000 Btu's per acre. Which inturn translates to equivalent of 25.65 barrels of oil. (500/19.5 = 25.64102564)

So each acre, we would get 25.624 "barrels" of gas.

"Each acre of hemp would yield 1,000 gallons of methanol, or 500 gallons of gasoline. Fuels from hemp, along with the recycling of paper, etc., would be enough to run America virtually without oil. "
http://www.jackherer.com/chapter09.html

So in order to match our daily need just for gasoline (at the conservation rate of 14 million barrels of oil a day), we would need roughly 546,021.85 acres of arable farm land.

Just over 1/2 a million acres. Not much at all, right, considering our total farm land is currently 921.5 million acres.

This doesn't include the additional acreage for the other various by products that oil produces to be produced by hemp.

I'm certainly not saying that it can't be done, however, with each additional item hemp produces, more land will be required to grow more raw material for those products. Which will require more water and more fuel for the tractors.

None of this takes into account droughts, floods, monocroping or erosion. All of which happen on a seasonal basis.

And most of all, taking away farm land that would normally be used for food production. Especially as more hemp is demanded.

Texas, which has the largest amount of arable farm land in the US (Texas leads the nation in farm acreage, with 130.4 million acres. http://www.realtor.org/library/library/fg814) went through a massive drought last year. Which resulted in some major issues with shorted crop yields.

I'm not against hemp at all, in fact I support it whole heartedly, however, it's not the one all be all. It needs to be included into a laundry list of other items needed to replace oil.

There will be no single solution. That is the one thing I believe people have to truly grasp.

[lunatica]

5. Solar panel farms

[Javaman]

21. Still requires energy to manufacture and to build.

solar panels are currently manufactured and produced with fossil fuel by products.

I am all for solar, but one must know the costs of things before jumping in.

Ramping up production for solar would require a huge energy and material investment.

That has to come from somewhere. So in order to ramp up, a solution would be to require the oil corps to give a certain percentage of their product to solar creation. It would also require the US population to conserve.

With less oil being used in vehicles and the manufacture of useless crap, then we could use that saved oil in solar production.

Everything is a trade off. This is the world we live in and have always lived in.

[lunatica]

6. Water turbines run by currents

[lunatica]

7. Mile high wind turbines

[Silent3]

8. Or...

[Javaman]

26. I am the great rock and roller!!! Humongous!!! nt

[Odin2005]

10. The Doomers will be here to bash you, shortly.

They can't conceive of a high-tech future transcending fossil fuels. They think were are going to revert to pre-industrial times, LOL.

[marmar]

12. They've already arrived.

nt

[Subdivisions]

34. How can you get and accept Peak Oil and not know that we are fucked for wating too late? n/t

[Javaman]

50. Don't hold your breath, the poster won't answer.

they love spewing the "green" talk without any facts behind it.

They think green magically happens with no effort, materials or energy cost.

[Javaman]

22. Um, no...

but all these various solutions still require energy and materials to manufacture them.

We can get out of this mess, but it would require a huge undertaking which we aren't even close to doing on the scale required.

If you look around the immediate area you are sitting, everything required fossil fuels to produce. Even items that are hand made require fossil fuels. The person that crafted it, ate food to give him or her energy to produce that handcrafted item via fossil fuels. They also worked on it under some sort of artificial light which was powered by fossil fuels.

We can't escape it.

Unless we start a massive ramp up, we are going to be in very very deep shit when need out paces production.

[Subdivisions]

33. Just as people ignored Peak Oil, they will now ignore the consequences of ignoring it. nt

[bvar22]

58. The best transitional solution is FREE.

I lived on a solar powered houseboat with a 750 watt array.
In order to live with that, I had to become very Energy Frugal.
I developed a Energy Use Consciousness.
Many power hungry luxuries that I had previously Taken For Granted were cast aside, but LIFE was still good.

The point is, we wouldn't need Solar Panels IF we all lived as if we had them.
Did you know that it is supposed to be dark after the sun goes down?

[Javaman]

67. you're preaching to the chore here.

I have two 330 water tanks in my yard for rainwater harvesting, just built a new clothes line (by the way if the one in your photo is yours, it's a nice one), we have a closed loop with our garden, grow, compost, reuse. Plus we mulch all our leaves every year. And are now moving to switch over our front yard to natives.

We renovated our house to make it completely energy efficient. Solar panels would be great but we can't quite afford them, just yet, however, we do have our house running on wind power through the austin power company.

So I practice what I preach.

[Odin2005]

63. As I said above, your problem is that you seem to think the transition must happen all at once.

It's not like the oil is suddenly going to run out, and as we transition to carbon-free vehicles the need for oil will drop off a lot, anyway.

[Javaman]

68. Why do you feel you must reiteration something I never said?

as I stated above, you enjoy putting words in peoples mouths. Which I might add is not only very ignorant of you, but weak.

[Subdivisions]

35. Please explain how we will achieve a 'high-tech' future without oil. Thanks. n/t

[Subdivisions]

36. delete. wrong place. n/t

[kestrel91316]

44. The oil isn't going to dry up. It's going to get more expensive.

We can and will adapt.

Geeeeezzzzzz! And I thought I was an inveterate doomer. You people are freaks. What a bunch of HELPLESS HANNAHS.

[Subdivisions]

46. Going to get more expensive? Have you looked at the price of oil lately?

We can and will adapt. That is correct. But it's not going to be big shining futuristic high-tech cities and fun electronic gadgets we adapt to. It'll be a more agrarian lifestyle we'll need to adapt to. That is if you want to eat.

When it comes to adapting, you go your way and I'll go mine. And we'll see whose source of food collapses first.

[Javaman]

52. So when oil becomes 200 bucks a barrel, how does one pay for infrastructure

based on outdated economic models that no one bothered to update?

Do you know what city planning even means?

Once again, you offer up the magic of solutions based on wishes.

[Odin2005]

64. Renewables. Nuclear. Electric vehicles and mass transit.

Nanotech-based manufacturing and recycling.

[Subdivisions]

69. Ok, show me on this chart just when we'll be making this high-tech transition:

[Javaman]

70. And were does the energy come to build all of those things?

thin air?

The construction materials alone is a huge energy suck. I have yet to see a single piece of construction equipment run on anything other that fossil fuel. Not that they can't but until someone shows that it can be done on a large scale economically, it will be a very slow change.

I deal with the people who run those companies on a daily basis. One of the things they must figure in on any bid is the cost of fuel. Bio-fuel is still not economically viable for them. With good marketing they could make it worth their while, but here in Texas, there is still very much a good old boy network.

Materials are another thing. Many material manufactures are making great strides regarding improving their manufacturing process. Reducing cost, power and water in the making of their materials, but alas, many materials are now made overseas and is shipped thousands of miles to get to the job site.

Try convincing china to switch over to "greener" means thus raising their prices.

All of the things you mention are indeed viable, but will still require parts to be made, assembled, then shipped.

Last time I checked, all of those things still use fossil fuels.

Also if you can show me an adequate lubricant to replace oil that is made from other means, I would love to see the specs on it. There are people I know that would be very interested.
I would need a cut sheet. Just saying it or showing me a link, doesn't help me.

[Subdivisions]

73. People just cannot perceive the trap we've worked very busily to get ourselves into.

And they don't even want to think of the consequences of having been entrapped this way.

[Javaman]

76. I know, it's very depressing.

I recall an interview by this couple that were traveling across the US during the last run up in gas prices.

They were someplace in the midwest.

They asked this one woman in particular, who was filling up her car at a gas pump, what she would do if gas ran out.

She was in complete denial. She sputtered something along the lines of, "that's impossible, it won't happen". However, you could see the fear in her eyes.

Gas at that station was at 4 bucks.

So much wishing and disconnect, it scares the daylights out of me.

[Subdivisions]

78. Fear not, my friend. And chin up! You've already graduated the Kubler-Ross Institute.

I can tell by your grasp of the issue. I can see thought how depression could creep in occasionally. I try to fight it off because I'm convinced that what lies of the other side is a better life for those, my children and grandchildren for instance, who make it. Sure, times are going to be tough until then. But the way I look at it is that, though I will hurt for those who will not fare well and though it will be very difficult for all, I am humbled that I will witness the dawning of a new age in human history - a return to a simpler and less destructive paradigm for this planet.

[Javaman]

82. That's a good philosophy.

I know in the long run, it will all be for the best.

[The2ndWheel]

14. So what's the cost?

As long as we exist within physical reality, it's always going to be give-and-take. What are we giving up to live in those pictures?

[Javaman]

24. I'm glad you asked that...

because it appears as if a few folks, not all, seem to have this belief that this stuff will "just happen".

The cost is; materials, time, will to do it and money. Not necessarily in that order.

Materials. Currently, most if not all materials for any alt energy come from mining of raw sources. which require fossil fuels to extract, smelt, forge and cast.

Time to make the transition (better late than never, right? we are really really late)

Will to do it. It seems as if so many people, especially those on the right, are of the belief that we can just keep right on burning away fossil fuels with no regard to the environment or that fossil fuels are a finite resource. (to me, this will be the biggest obstacle)

And Money, so what else is new.

[The2ndWheel]

30. Plus there has to be an environmental cost

There was an environmental cost when humans hunted with sharp sticks, let alone billions of people around the world having access to theoretically limtless energy.

Look at how we waste oil today. We force ourselves to use it because it's so cheap(financially speaking). Too often it seems like the only issue people bring up is the kind of energy we use. It's not only about that. It's also the amount. It's what we do with it.

Another funny thing is that you'll read that we could cover our energy needs with solar panels on a relatively small piece of land. Even if that were true, why would we stop there? Have we, at any point, as a society/culture/species/whatever, said enough? We could use more, but we won't?

[Javaman]

47. Our other middle name other and "we want it now" is "we want more"

it never ends.

It will only end when everything has been exhausted, burned up, used up or destroyed.

we are a plague and we plague ourselves.

[madrchsod]

16. the problem is to make that stuff we need lubricants

unless there`s a new source we`ll have to use oil.

[Javaman]

25. I'm glad someone else sees this.

I have stated this before along with the ability to smelt various metals at very high temps.

[semillama]

28. Another problem is all the stuff MADE from petroleum products

not just the energy needed to produce them, but that the products themselves are made from petroleum. But as another poster said, we can get the carbon for their production from other sources.

It would be interesting to explore if there were anyway to capture some of the carbon dioxide we're pumping into the atmosphere and use that as a carbon source for raw materials, but perhaps that's pie in the sky thinking...

[Javaman]

29. I thought about that...

I was thinking about an industrial sized air scrubber. Like the ones they use on the space shuttle. Granted they aren't scrubbing CO2, but I'm sure it could be adapted.

But then again, how much CO2 will be expended in its manufacture?

it's a vicious cycle.

[semillama]

83. as long as CO2 recovered doesn't exceed that spent in manufacture

then it would be a net gain.

[Silent3]

57. The less oil we burn as fuel, however...

...the more that will be available for making lubricants, plastics, dyes, and a lot of other petrochemical products.

Our remaining oil reserves would probably last a very long time if our usage was reduced to non-fuel uses.

[glitch]

60. Yep. Not really really pie-in-the-sky either, just practical and dare I say

conservative (the good environmental kind, not the evil political kind :evilgrin:)

[Javaman]

71. As I have said up thread...

various studies have shown that we could reduce our usage of fossil fuels by upto 1/3 through conservation.

But there needs to be the political will to make that happen.

I completely agree with what you stated, btw.

[madrchsod]

80. agree....and we can get lubricating oil from plants

[Javaman]

81. True, but their longevity and viscosity isn't the equal of fossil fuel lubricates.

So as a result we will have to do with product that doesn't last as long and will create more wear and tear on various machinery.

Just one more part of the new world reality we face.

[Jkid]

18. The Oil and Coal companies will fight tooth and nail to prevent that from happening.

The instant any politician will show any political will towards a oil-free nation, they will use every tool in their disposal, even it mean's using the words communism AND un-American (>implying that oil addition is patriotic).

[Javaman]

27. Yup, spot on. nt

[grahamhgreen]

31. I can't beieve people are unreccing this! I don't own a car in Atlanta and I LOVE IT!

My lifestyle has improved since i dumped the fume-spewer!

[kestrel91316]

45. I'm car-free in Los Angeles and most of the time it's fine with me.

[Javaman]

53. Because as much as people hate mr chaney...

they fully embrace the concept of a "non-negotiable way of life", while at the same time offering up magic and wishes as solutions to our current addiction.

Peak oil is reality based and that just pisses them off. LOL

[Subdivisions]

37. Most of that is not possible without oil to facilitate it. Please explain

how to achieve all of that without oil, from the mining of materials and casting of parts to the assembly of said parts to the distribution of said parts...and it goes on and on and on. In fact, it goes on and on concurrent to the number of years it would have taken to deal with this problem. That number was 20. Everything we should have been doing for the past 20 years to solve this problem has YET TO BE DONE. And now there's not enough recoverable oil left in the planet to accomplish a transition.

It's too late by 20 years to transition to a fossil-fuel free society. Now, we will either survive Peak Oil individually on our own merits or we will die.

[glitch]

61. Peak Oil does not mean no oil. Higher priced, more efficiently used

if we get good leadership, more risky extraction "adventures" if we don't. Although I agree we've squandered 30 years on pure waste and greed, for which Reagan/Bushes/Cheney/their acolytes and sycophants et al shall burn in hell.

Given the sickness of our system, I don't see the curse of oil going away anytime soon, however I don't think we should throw up our hands in despair now.

"Save despair for better times." anonymous graffiti artist in Sarajevo c. 1993

[Javaman]

72. it all comes down to good leadership...

we are heading for a hard landing. The days of a soft landing have passed us by, but if we start now, we can avoid a train-wreck into a brickwall.

But we have to start now. Each day that passes, that brick wall comes on a little faster.

[asdjrocky]

41. And we could do it all with hemp.

How come no one else ever talks about this?

[Javaman]

54. Hemp will not do it all...

It could provide a portion.

Hemp requires water. Our next wars will be based on it.

Hemp is a monocrop. Hemp requires arable farm land that would otherwise be used for food.

Here is what I said about it on another reply in this same thread...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=8578213&mesg_id=8579133

[Subdivisions]

56. Hemp would be a tremendous help. Unfortunately, it's illegal. n/t

[Javaman]

74. Then there is that. nt.

[anarch]

51. I have no doubt that the post-oil future will be cleaner and nicer

and less populated. Just give it a couple thousand years and things might be downright pleasant.

p.s. I hope the DC Metrorail system is not being held up as a paradigm of awesome public transportation...while I admit I couldn't do without it, I would not rate it very high on the list of awesome things if you catch my drift.

[bvar22]

59. Great Thread!

Please allow me to add some photos:

[Javaman]

75. I'm jealous of the chickens...

I'm going the bee route instead. :)

Great shots.

[bvar22]

79. We keep Honey Bees too.

We started two colonies in 2007.
They have been a great adventure.
The collective intelligence of the hive is beyond awe.
The more we learn about them, the more fascinated we become.

Small scale, decentralized, chemical free BeeKeeping may be the answer to CCD.
We are in touch with several other small scale beekeepers in our area, and none of us have experienced CCD. We have lost colonies to various reasons, but none have simply just left.

Neither of us had any experience with BeeKeeping.
We blundered through on good will and the Internet.
We put together these recommendation for anyone considering Keeping Bees:

1) Check in with you County Extension.
They are really helpful. There are some regulations concerning transportation, registration, and inspection, and there may be some local ordinances. They are also a great resource for latest research and new methods, pest & disease control. They can also facilitate state hive inspections.
We generally avoid government agencies where ever possible, and have never voluntarily registered anything, but we make an exception for our bees. The benefits FAR outweigh any downside.

2)Join you local Beekeepers Association.
These are some of the most laid back people you will ever meet. Starkraven and myself are not joiners, but we look forward to our monthly meetings with the "bee people". This is another valuable resource for local information concerning pests, honey flows, equipment and disreputable operators. You can also pick up some hands-on experience working around hives.
Make no mistake...it is scary opening a hive the first time.
You will also be able to pick up some free localized bees from you local bee keepers. (Healthy colonies EXPAND, and many local bee keepers have all they want and are more than happy to give them away).

3)Always use new equipment
There are some very persistent pests and diseases that can be transmitted through the equipment. Used equipment abounds at some very attractive prices.
It is not worth the risk in my opinion. If you join the local association, some will offer you old equipment for FREE, but we always politely turn it down.
New Equipment is very reasonable, and there are many wholesalers and retailers online.
We use Dadant, and have been very happy with them.

4)Don't use Flower Scented Deodorants or Fabric Softeners.
You would think this is Common Sense, but it took us a while to figure out WHY the bees wanted so badly to crawl under our arms. You really don't want to get stung there.

Good Luck with your Bees!
They are great fun,
and REAL Flower Honey can't be beat.
Most of what is available on the store shelves is really just bee-reprocessed corn syrup.
Commercial Honey Producers feed their Factory Bees High Fructose Corn Syrup.
No wonder so many decide to run away.

[Subdivisions]

77. Great pics! I'm green with envy =) My goal is to aspire to a similar scene. n/t