Flip side of Census hiring: 200,000 job loses in June?

[LuckyTheDog]

TrimTabs Investment Research reported that based on preliminary data, the U.S. economy is likely to lose at least 200,000 jobs in June. That is because the Census Bureau is projected to lay off more than half of the 525,000 temporary workers it hired from March to May to conduct the 2010 Census.

TrimTabs, which bases its job estimates on daily income tax data, said the June losses will be partially offset by positive but weak private sector job growth. If tax deposits from the rest of June are consistent with the first week, TrimTabs estimates that private sector job growth will be an anemic 50,000 to 75,000 jobs.

"Once again, investors shouldn't let the headline job loss number mislead them," said Madeline Schnapp, Director of Macroeconomic Research at TrimTabs. "Job growth is likely to be sharply negative because the Census Bureau is laying off temporary workers, not because the economy is weakening dramatically

More here: http://www.wrcbtv.com/Global/story.asp?S=12626350

We should be prepared. All of the sudden, all of those Census jobs that "don't count" will count for a lot in right-wing commentary. Obama, who was criticized for hiring Census workers, will be slammed for allowing them to be laid off.

[UndertheOcean]

1. Counting Temp Census Jobs as job "gains" was stupid to begin with .

[ProgressiveVictory]

3. it is stupid. but there were a lot of people out there who were speaking highly of the

Jobs numbers when they were counted.

Everyone one knew it was the census jobs that bumped the numbers up, I wonder what they will say when thr numbers look bad again..

[dmallind]

2. And of course everyone will be consistent, right?

People who poo-pooed the 431K in May as BS not-real-job numbers because the Census jobs were included will poo-poo the (possible) losses in June as not-real job numbers and exclude Census then too. Right?

[Statistical]

4. Of course.

No not really, not on DU at least.

[Greyhound]

7. Consistently correct yes.

The number was an induced spike that was used to give a false impression so that the stock market would get a bump. The 'Market' is not the economy.

It will also give the real economy a small boost to push through the summer, which also makes the 'us' that I believe you are talking about, correct about what works in build an economy.

[dmallind]

8. So if it was a false bump the correction is not bad news then eh?

I mean if you falsify numbers (which of course were not falsified merely misinterpreted by some - jobs data ALWAYS includes temp jobs regardless of the employer) then correcting them should be GOOD news right? So no whining about the 250K jobs "lost" next month if they were never real jobs to begin with surely? That's my point. You know and I know DU Doomers will whine about any possible (not certain) overall "loss" of jobs in June driven by census layoffs as the sign of a collapsing economy, rather than see it as rthe downside of a temporary bump known in advance.

[Greyhound]

10. I don't know what post you read, but I didn't write that anything was falsified,

There are always temp jobs, but only the government hires that many and only once a decade.

I (apparently) have news for you, the economy collapsed. We lost over 20 million jobs in two years and the global banking system collapsed. What matters now is what is being done about it and the answers to that question are not correct. "Business as usual" is not the proper response to a series of growing disasters, especially when you can see a whole line still coming at you.

[dmallind]

11. "an iinduced spike used to give a false impression"

So fixing a false impression will be good news right?

[SheilaT]

5. Meanwhile half a million people

were working and earning some money. I was one of them.

[hugo_from_TN]

6. Unfortunately, the political fallout is most important here.

Not the half million who need to find another job. Sad.

[SheilaT]

9. It is sad that so many need to find

another job, a replacement job, whatever.

I'm one of those who takes whatever work comes along, because earning some money is better than earning no money