Gusher in the Gulf: What's the worst that could happen?
Here's a post at The Oil Drum that appears to be written by a knowledgeable outsider, the conclusions this guy reaches are positively terrifying.
There is considerably more both before and after the snippet of text I'm posting here, I urge you to go and read the whole thing, it's a bit technical in places but written well enough to be largely understandable by the layman..
Well...none of what is likely to happen is good, in fact...it's about as bad as it gets. I am convinced the erosion and compromising of the entire system is accelerating and attacking more key structural areas of the well, the blow out preventer and surrounding strata holding it all up and together. This is evidenced by the tilt of the blow out preventer and the erosion which has exposed the well head connection. What eventually will happen is that the blow out preventer will literally tip over if they do not run supports to it as the currents push on it. I suspect they will run those supports as cables tied to anchors very soon, if they don't, they are inviting disaster that much sooner.
Eventually even that will be futile as the well casings cannot support the weight of the massive system above with out the cement bond to the earth and that bond is being eroded away. When enough is eroded away the casings will buckle and the BOP will collapse the well. If and when you begin to see oil and gas coming up around the well area from under the BOP? or the area around the well head connection and casing sinking more and more rapidly? ...it won't be too long after that the entire system fails. BP must be aware of this, they are mapping the sea floor sonically and that is not a mere exercise. Our Gov't must be well aware too, they just are not telling us.
All of these things lead to only one place, a fully wide open well bore directly to the oil deposit...after that, it goes into the realm of "the worst things you can think of" The well may come completely apart as the inner liners fail. There is still a very long drill string in the well, that could literally come flying out...as I said...all the worst things you can think of are a possibility, but the very least damaging outcome as bad as it is, is that we are stuck with a wide open gusher blowing out 150,000 barrels a day of raw oil or more. There isn't any "cap dome" or any other suck fixer device on earth that exists or could be built that will stop it from gushing out and doing more and more damage to the gulf. While at the same time also doing more damage to the well, making the chance of halting it with a kill from the bottom up less and less likely to work, which as it stands now?....is the only real chance we have left to stop it all.
It's a race now...a race to drill the relief wells and take our last chance at killing this monster before the whole weakened, wore out, blown out, leaking and failing system gives up it's last gasp in a horrific crescendo.
(...)
According to BP data from about five years ago, there are four separate reservoirs containing a total of 2.5 billion barrels (barrels not gallons). One of the reservoirs has 1.5 billion barrels. I saw an earlier post here quoting an Anadarko Petroleum report which set the total amount at 2.3 billion barrels. One New York Times article put it at 2 billion barrels.
If the BP data correctly or honestly identified four separate reservoirs then a bleed-out might gush less than 2 to 2.5 billion barrels unless the walls -- as it were -- fracture or partially collapse. I am hearing the same dark rumors which suggest fracturing and a complete bleed-out are already underway. Rumors also suggest a massive collapse of the Gulf floor itself is in the making. They are just rumors but it is time for geologists or related experts to end their deafening silence and speak to these possibilities.
and if that volcano goes, we will have another oil "spill" off of the coast. It seems though, and forgive my ignorance, that this is a natural occuring event and may not be as harmful as the GOM spew, no? I read about the dead zone off of the Santa Barbara coast and that is scary. Let's hope this thing stays in control for a while at least.
are the relief wells and then it's a game of "beat the clock" against the well itself. If we don't beat the clock, wtf will happen?? The well gushes in a number of places and we have no hope of containing it? This would be a total nightmare! The GOM would then truly be "dead", as so many here have exclaimed, and the oil would be taken by the current up the east coast. I don't know a lot about the currents (good time to learn!) bt I would imagine that it also would start flowing down the eastern coast of Mexico towards central/south America. F***!!
5. I am soooo damn angry..and beyond sad...sad was the first month..now I am mad as hell
and not going to take it anymore.
We have all been lied to ..but those of us on the Gulf are beyond screwed ..so many lives destroyed..and our eco system, and our wildlife and marine life..
and when we speak out ..evidently we are haters...
well fuck those who think I am a hater..you are damn right I am a hater now..fucking right I am!
6. ALERT! NOTE! That material comes from a conspiracy website
1. With respect to the plans for controlling the well post blowout, not much has changed over the past 31 years. Please see . You will understand what I’m talking about after viewing.
2. Most folks think this was an extremely poor well design, i.e. no second barrier to protect the surface/environment from the reservoir (not deposit). You could call it a deposit, but in the industry, we call it a reservoir. If you need more evidence of this, please see the BP report presented on Capitol Hill. I believe you have posted the link. Pay particular attention to the slides detailing the well itself.
3. It’s believed that there are burst disks in the casing strings tied back to surface. Your presumption that a well integrity problem exists is spot on, only the wrong presumption! Please see the presentation mentioned in #2.
4. The well is 13,000 ft below the mudline. Add in the depth of the water and you get ~18,000 ft. According to the slide noted in #2 above, the well was drilled with a 14.9 ppg mud, which equates to a hydrostatic pressure of ~13,900 psi. Typically, wells are drilled in an overbalanced situation, say 200 psi or so, the pore pressure is ~ 14.7 ppg. To quote one of the posters “It has been estimated by experts that the pressure which blows the oil into the Gulf waters is estimated to be between 20,000 and 70,000 PSI (pounds per square inch). Impossible to control.” This statement is complete and absolute bullshit.
5. As noted in BP’s presentation to Capitol Hill, there were 3 instances where this event could have been controlled prior to the blowout! Well control events don't just happen! There are always indications prior to an event. You did speak about this.
6. The drilling rig contractor’s Offshore Installation Manager (OIM) appears to have caved in to pressure from the BP company man. If he hadn't, this wouldn't be a thread today! Do a search in Wikipedia for the role and function of the OIM, it might enlighten you. I’m not a big fan of Wiki, but it does provide an adequate description of the function of the OIM.
7. Why wasn’t there a BP company man on the rig floor during a well control event? This isn’t standard operating procedure. Company men / foremen have well control training as well as personnel on the rig floor.
8. There are usually a minimum of two (2) inclinometers on the BOP. Unless you are looking directly down on them, you can’t tell if the wellhead is leaning or not. ROV’s rarely stay perfectly horizontal so using the ROV inclinometer is a stretch at best. One really has to understand the inclination of the wellhead prior to the blowout to make any inferences as to it’s current state. It wouldn’t be a surprise if there is some tilt, of the wellhead. Recall the explosions left the rig dead in the water, it’s a dynamic postioned (DP) vessel, currents would then begin to push it off location. The riser is still attached at two (2) points, the rig, and the BOP. The shear weight of the vessel and the riser being forced off location may indeed impart bending moments at the sea floor, which in turn may cause the wellhead to lean some-what.
9. With respect to subsea currents toppling the BOP stack…. Currents subsea are usually pretty much benign (< 2 knots), unless the wellhead location is in the loop current where they can get greater, +/- 6 knots. These higher currents, usually at much shallower depths than the wellhead play havoc with riser systems and usually induce what is called Vortex Induced Vibration (VIV). VIV induces oscillation in the risers. VIV makes landing the BOP on the wellhead a challenge, but once it is landed and locked typically has little impact.
10. There is some mention of the failed BOP’s, but there is no mention of the findings when the riser was cut just above the tension joint. Wanna know? There were two (2) pieces of drill pipe in the riser. Yes Virginia, there should have been only one (1). Obviously this hasn’t been made public and could potentially explain some of the malfunctions that occurred with the BOP. We’ll know for sure once the BOP’s are recovered and evaluated.
11. Casing strings are not “snapped” together. Typically, they are a premium threaded connection rated for a pre-specified pressure. This means they are screwed together to a specified torque using calibrated tongs.
12. Workstring or drill pipe can be cut with shear rams in most instances. What can’t be sheared are the tool joints between each piece of drill pipe (30’ lengths). They typically have a smaller ID and larger OD than the tubes themselves (makes the connection stronger than the tube body). The increase in wall thickness is a known problem with respect to the BOP blind/shear rams being able to severe them.
13. There are a couple variations of Deadman systems. Some are hydraulic and others acoustic. It’s common knowledge that the hydraulic systems are more reliable than acoustic. Think about it, direct hydraulics, vs. something that depends on sound waves (a transmitter and receiver, two (2) additional failure points)!!! An additional cost of $500k for something that may / may not function when needed.
14. Big misconception. “relief well drilled to relieve pressure”, NOT. They won’t relieve any pressure, they will pump heavy mud in the failed wellbore to kill the well, then follow it with cement to stop the flow of hydrocarbon. Once the well is dead, equipment will start to be recovered. Key pieces are of course the BOP, LMRP, and potentially the wellhead. This will take some time.
15. John Q. Public should be assured that the BOP’s will be dissected to understand what worked and didn’t work and why. Notice I didn’t say fail, because we don’t know what was across them when activated. Obviously the LMRP didn’t disconnect when the EQD was activated. They will have to be torn down and evaluated to understand what worked/didn’t work.
16. With respect to erosion, maybe / maybe not. The formation containing the hydrocarbons appears to be fairly competent rock (Miocene age). What is meant by this is the rock has good cementation qualities, i.e. the sand grains are held together with minute particles of cement yielding excellent compressive strength. Yes, there is porosity (pore spaces available to contain the oil, and excellent permeability. Permeability is a measure of the ease with which fluid can move from point A to point B with an induced pressure drop from A to B.
17. The well will then be plugged and abandoned. It will never be a producer.
18. The only sure way to remediate this problem is the relief well. Yes it will take some time to happen, but it will happen. Understand what the directional drillers are trying to do, basically hit a target in the earth the size of a dinner plate 18,000 feet away (3.4 miles). Not easy, but it can be done.
10. All the tantrumming and gnashing of teeth and throwing hairbrained schemes at this
disaster and possibly making it worse will accomplish nothing. I have heard or read nothing since these events started to unfold that would lead me to believe that anything other than the success of relief wells will remediate the situation. Yes, it is sickening to watch the result of greedy negligence play out, but I think that waiting for those relief wells to be drilled is exactly the remedy. Anything else is a distraction and possibly creates a greater danger. Go back and look at what has been done in the past and what was being said from the beginning. These caps and domes have only been intended to slow the flow until the relief wells are done.
11. I agree. At least some engineers are confident the relief wells will work
Obama is no doubt aware of this scenario. The focus is in cornering BP so that they pay the cleanup and related costs. It could be what.. 20-40 Billion?
Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators
Important Notices: By participating on this discussion
board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules
page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the
opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent
the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.
Printer-friendly format
Email this thread to a friend
Bookmark this thread
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
