VERY bad news from the Gulf Oil Spill

[Jeffersons Ghost]

New Estimates Double Rate of Oil That Flowed Into Gulf
By JUSTIN GILLIS and LIZ ROBBINS
Published: June 10, 2010

A government panel on Thursday doubled its estimate of the amount of oil that had gushed for weeks from the out-of-control BP well even before the latest attempt to cap it. The new calculation suggested that an amount of oil equivalent to the Exxon Valdez disaster could have been flowing into the Gulf of Mexico every 8 to 10 days.

This assessment, based on measurements taken before BP cut the riser pipe of the leaking well on June 3 to cap some of the flow, showed that approximately 25,000 to 30,000 barrels of oil could have been gushing into the Gulf each day. That is far above the previous estimate of 12,000 to 19,000 barrels a day.

Scientists say the flow rate could actually be greater now because they believe that cutting the riser to position the cap pipe may have only increased the flow of the oil and gas mixture. The same governmental panel said that it would be another few days until it would be able to estimate the current flow rate.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/11/us/11spill.html?hp

[Lil Missy]

1. I bet BP was so shocked to hear this.

[gateley]

9. ...

:rofl: I know I shouldn't be laughing, but your post is perfect!

[Lil Missy]

24. lol

I think a lot of us are just beyond numb now. This disaster is staggering.

[Javaman]

48. I don't think anyone could have anticipated this!

:(

[bdamomma]

2. you think we can get cheney to suck it up,

he's obsessed with oil.

[Jeffersons Ghost]

5. here we see Cheney using a special sign to show us what he thinks of our world:

[JuniperLea]

3. DU was right again... sadly...

Many of us jumped on their numbers game right away... what with all those Westmorland figures floating about... BP, go to hell.

[Junkdrawer]

30. When they acknowledge 75K to 125K I'll start listening...

Because that's what it is and was....

[Spheric]

32. +1 Exactly.

The same sentiment I posted below.

[tnlefty]

39. There are no oil plumes...

Hayward is a lying sack.

[Jeffersons Ghost]

53. according to BBC there are "oil plumes"

[tnlefty]

65. But, but, but according to Tony Hayward,

there aren't.

[Jeffersons Ghost]

78. whatever

[wordpix]

42. +2 gawd forbid the O admin would fine BP to the max they're responsible for

[stuntcat]

4. sickest ever

sickest thing ever. to me.

rec.

[Jeffersons Ghost]

29. we've probably destroyed the earths' climate

[MannyGoldstein]

6. But BP Has The Best Expertise To Fix This Thing

Even though this new estimate is at least 2500% higher than their initial estimate, these are the best, brightest, and most experience people for the job.

Holy shit.

[HughMoran]

10. one is not related to the other

What point are you trying to make?

We know they are trying to minimize the estimate since we know their original internal estimate before Top Kill was 14,000 bpd. So the engineers know what they are dealing with and there is not other group who could come in and deal with this in any reasonable amount of time.

[MannyGoldstein]

27. Being Off By 2500% Demonstrates Competence

They should become a tool of the government, not vice-versa.

[HughMoran]

34. You do know the flow increased twice after the original accident, don't you?

Top Kill opened up the pipes as sand-blasting would do, then cutting the riser doubled the flow. Facts provided by the official estimates not provided by BP.

[Spheric]

36. Yes, that will be BP's claim.

Is there any evidence of that, though, other than the continuously rising official estimates that have never comported with independent estimates from academia?

[HughMoran]

38. As I stated, BPs internal documentation was 14,000 bpd initially

Official estimates are being done by academics now.

[Spheric]

43. Any ideas on why...

independent estimates from academia are always higher than the official estimates and have been from the beginning?

[HughMoran]

46. Dunno - lack of knowledge of the methane content was one stated reason

...the other was lack of access to the BP ROV cams initially.

Obviously BP has been lying whenever possible.

[Devil_Fish]

64. if you read the OP the latest estimant is from before they cut the riser. N/T

[HughMoran]

66. Right, it's old news. The new estimate is 40,000 bpd

I'm not sure why people don't even have the latest news or know what they are talking about.

[Jeffersons Ghost]

80. fresh as "news" can get, like all my OPs are

[HCE SuiGeneris]

13. We've been fed a load of horseshit since the beginning.

This news is not a surprise to me. The devastation will be... unfathomable.

[CountAllVotes]

17. fuckin liars - all of them!!

[Jeffersons Ghost]

62. "PROTEST" is the best word in your post

[eShirl]

41. Then we are truly and thoroughly furked.

Because they are nowhere near to being up to the task.

[JDPriestly]

69. Are you qualified to advise BP or the Coast Guard on how to handle this?

Who besides BP is?

[MannyGoldstein]

81. The Multiple Groups That Correctly Deduced The Spill Rate

are clearly smarter than BP. Or more honest. Doesn't matter either way: somebody else should be in charge, BP should be one of their tools.

[jgraz]

7. $4300/barrel. Start assessing the fines today.

There's NO reason BP should be allowed to pay dividends before currently accumulated fines are assessed.

[havocmom]

19. Nor should they be the ones to decide how many barrels poured into the water

Yes, let's let the fox tell us how many hens he owes the farmer for.... Sure, that'll work

NOT

[jgraz]

20. In this case, the "fox" has admitted to a minimum amount.

Those fines should be paid without delay. We can argue over the rest later.

[wordpix]

44. no joke---WHAT is Obama waiting for? Slap the fines and the royalites on NOW

& let BP explain to their shareholders why they can't afford to pay out the dividend

[Jeffersons Ghost]

50. I read on the BBC that BP invests in pension funds primarily....

this disaster could also become cover for cheating millions of British and US citizens out of their pensions.

[paparush]

76. I think he's afraid of crashing the markets and spawning

Global Economic Meltdown Part (rolls dice) 7.

[HughMoran]

8. I predicted 30,000 - 40,000 bpd after the cut

Olbermann said the new estimate is 40,000 bpd :D

[LisaL]

15. I think it was pretty clear the flow was much more than what they

were saying.

[flyarm]

11. approximately 53.6 million to 64.3 million gallons of oil have emerged from the well

approximately 53.6 million to 64.3 million gallons of oil have emerged from the well
New estimate suggests that, if the flow has been more or less consistent since the April 20 blowout, approximately 53.6 million to 64.3 million gallons of oil have emerged from the well. That is roughly five to six times the amount spilled in Alaskan waters in 1989 by the Exxon Valdez.

The new figures, obtained Thursday by The Washington Post and soon to be officially announced by the U.S. Geological Survey, indicate that early estimates of the flow rate by the federal government and oil giant BP were not even close to the mark.

For more information, visit washingtonpost.com:
http://link.email.washingtonpost.com/r/6041ZA/2GCUZ/7ZG...


I posted this earlier .........

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x8531622

[annabanana]

12. Mother Earth is bleeding.

Is that all there is, is that all there is
If that's all there is my friends, then let's keep dancing
Let's break out the booze and have a ball
If that's all there is

[Hestia]

77. Apocalypso

Apocalypso
By: Matt Betton
1993
They say this universe is bound to blow
But I say we crank up the calypso control
Apocalyp...Apocalyp...Apocalypso
Now I'm no dancer as dancer's go
But this is one step that you need to know
Apocalyp...Apocalyp...Apocalypso
We'll be dancin' when we go

Planets come and planets go
Apocalypso
Undisturbed the dancers flow
Apocalypso

Old galaxies can be cold
So I'll hold you close

When this earthly light is burning low
This dance will take you to the next plateau
Apocalyp...Apocalyp...Apocalypso
We'll be dancin' when we go
We'll be dancin' when we go

Planets come and planets go
Apocalypso (dancin' when we go)
Undisturbed the dancers flow
Apocalypso
Yes we'll ride that final tide
Apocalypso (dancin' when we go)
Gone away just yesterday
Apocalypsooooooo (dancin' when we go)
(ooh...Apocalypso)
(dancin' when we go)
(Apocalypso)

[JBoy]

14. BP will capture a thimble full and still say it's a majority.

[flyarm]

16. they can't the top national scientists are on it now..finally they got the tapes!

[wordpix]

45. Thanks to Rep Markey, and a big kiss for him!

[Name removed]

18. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[IndianaGreen]

21. Did anyone watch the video of BP officials run alongside Baghdad Bob?

It was shown last night on Olbermann's show. It was hilarious.

BP lies all the time.

[Spheric]

49. Yes, it would be hilarious if it wasn't so true.

Sorry. I guess I'm losing my sense of humor over this.

x(

[Bluebear]

22. Oil tanker Condolleezza would say: "Nobody could have imagined this kind of catastrophe."

[lpbk2713]

23. So it turns out BP is like any other MegaCorp

They fed us a line of bullshit for however long they thought it could stretch. They are all the same.
They will lie, cheat and steal to protect and to maximize their profit margins.


From inside the BP Executive Suite ...



"Gentlemen, we've got to protect
our phony-baloney jobs."



The bastards.

[wordpix]

47. They're worse, they have 760 violations outstanding---see Rolling Stone article

[Gregin Orlando]

25. BP and the whore media in the U.S. have been lying

BP and their whores in the corporate media have been lying since day one about the amount of oil leaking into the Gulf. First of all there are three leaks, not one, at the Deepwater Horizon site. Secondly, satellite imagery shows that are two other leaks at different sites. Thirdly, the damages will go far beyond fouled beaches and dead marine life. There are nuclear and coal-fired power plants that rely on clean Gulf water for cooling. There are also desalinization plants that use reverse osmosis to convert seawater into drinking for residents in Florida and other Gulf states. If oil clogs these intakes, then the economic damages will be far beyond anything people have been told. For more information, check out this article: http://www.examiner.com/x-38220-Orlando-Independent-Examiner~y2010m6d9-Satellite-imagery-shows-up-to-three-oil-leaks-in-Gulf-FL-power-and-water-supplies-may-be-at-risk

[Kermitt Gribble]

61. Great post!

Thanks for the link..

Welcome to DU!

[TheKentuckian]

26. These fucking guys...these fucking guys. I bet they've been even feeding their

engineers and scientists bullshit too. It wouldn't do to have any eggheads getting the straight dope out. Hell, it wouldn't surprise me if they ordered that the information not be officially gathered.

Way, way, way past time to replace the board/upper management with a group not trying to CYA and on the cheap.

Some will continue to try and play the lame ass expertise and equipment card but the rest of us with any common sense know to the bone that this bunch of criminals has got to go and put command and control of those harped on human and mechanical resources under sane and responsible management.

[CoffeeCat]

28. BP tried to fool us in the beginning...

Oh don't worry, American people! We will fix this thing!

then it was...

We can't fix it right now, but we will and yes, some oil is leaking, but how
much is just NOT important! Love ya!

then it was...

Ok, you can see the pictures of the leak, because the government demanded it, but
the leak is only 5,000 barrels per day. No worries! Yes, we know the video we
gave you is fuzzy, practically in slow motion and so low quality that you cannot
verify that we are lying. Oh well...toodles!

then this week, it is...

Ok, America--now we've given you the digital video feed of the leak. Clearly, this thing
is gushing thousands of times more oil than we ever said. We give up!! The secret is
out that we are destroying the planet. Sorry!

The thing is--In the beginning they wanted to hide the extent of the leak because they were
stupid enough to think that they could fix it. They wanted the leak estimates low so
they wouldn't have to pay as much. Now, they just know they're screwed completely beyond
repair.

BP knows that they're staring down the mouth of bankruptcy.

So, what do they do--they're sending up trial balloons and asking American tax payers to
foot the bill for all of this. What do you want to bet that they're shorting their own
stock and probably making billions doing so?

These people are pieces of shit.

[Mimosa]

70. Isn't it the President's job not to be fooled isn't it? n/t

[Tesha]

82. Don't forget the stage when it was "1,000 BBLs a day". (NT)

[Spheric]

31. This is just another bullshit lie.

Notice how after BP actually recovers some of the oil and the gusher doesn't visibly change in flow, When the facts don't match their lies, they always have to up the estimate.

Only 5,000 barrels were flowing per day until they put their straw into the end of the riser and managed to bring 5,000 barrels a day to the surface without visibly slowing the amount still pouring into the Gulf. So, the estimate was raised to 12,000 to 19,000 barrels a day.

Then, with the top hat they were able to bring 15,000 barrels a day to the surface without visibly lessening the amount still gushing into the Gulf. So, obviously, the 12,000 to 19,000 barrels a day estimate no longer will sell. So, let's try 25,000 to 30,000 a day.

The new estimate is always a bit higher than what they have managed to capture so the numbers will at least work on paper. The truth of the matter is that the 15,000 barrels they brought to the surface in one day did not cut the flow into the Gulf in half. Not even close. In fact, with the naked eye, it was difficult to notice any lessening of the gusher at all.

The actual flow is more likely to be at least two to four times this new estimate. But, we'll never know for sure because they refuse, with the government's blessing, to allow scientists to actually measure the flow.

This whole exercise is a shill game and it's disgusting.

[Junkdrawer]

33. Which is why BP will never capture ALL the spill...

because:

1.) They would have to allow their engineers to design to that spec

2.) We would all know for certain just how bad the spill was and is. And THAT would cost BP $500+ million A DAY in fines.

Unless they could figure a way to burn the oil they captured without metering it. Oh, wait:

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/06/09/eveningnews/main6566094.shtml?tag=cbsnewsTwoColUpperPromoArea

[Spheric]

35. And why they are denying the existence of the sub-surface plumes scientists are documenting.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/06/09/eveningnews/main6565944.shtml

Based on computer models developed in Norway that existed long before this crisis, it is likely that most of the oil has remained below the surface.

http://iosc.org/papers/00429.pdf

But, if you can't see it from space, it doesn't exist. It also means that BP doesn't have to clean it up.

[AnArmyVeteran]

37. Us our goddamned Military to PROTECT US for a change!!!

Our military is supposed to be used to protect the US against any threats. BP IS a threat. We should declare war on that corporation and seize all of its assets and arrest every BP executive. We should strip them of every dime in their treasury and vaporize what's left.

Why in the hell do we have a military? Is it only to start corporate-started wars like the two Bush Wars? Can't we use the military to defend US!!!! We the people need to start to demand that Obama get up off of his ass and DO SOMETHING. If not, then he should just say he is incapable of action or being a leader and resign. I am sick of having people lie to me. And Obama LIED to me and all the rest of Americans.

I know this post will be deleted, but it's truth. Obama is so far in bed with corporations he is copulating with them at this very moment. And while he is fornicating with them we are the ones left with all the STD's he is getting from corrupt, soulless corporations.

ENOUGH OBAMA! Be a goddamned man. That's the change you promised, but then as soon as you were sworn in you sold out. What's sad is you could have been a hero if you only did the right thing and represented the people. But you decided to surround yourself with corporate whores and are listening to them instead of doing what is right.

I'm almost at the point of calling you Bu$hobama, because I don't see much difference between you two guys any more. It's sad you squandered so much and betrayed your people.

[spanone]

40. there is absolutely no reason to believe that this or any other info from bp is accurate

i suspect it is worse than we can imagine

[Stuart G]

51. My outlook, probably wrong, but so was BP's & Obama's..It will become a Dead Sea

Within a year or two, the full extent of the damage will become evident. It will become a Dead Sea. Life in the Gulf itself will almost become extinct. Millions upon millions of fish and birds will have died. The underwater currents of oil will destroy the ecosystem of the Gulf of Mexico in was that has never been seen before. Marshes and wetlands will be destroyed. Normal defense against climate disruptions will not work. The water will not support life as we know it.
News on the matter will become less and less..and sadly the situation will remain desperate. Millions of people in the region will have their lives affected.

[blindpig]

52. Expropriate now. k&r

[Poboy]

54. Thank you Jefferson's Ghost

Thank all of you for helping us out.

[Towlie]

55. That's about enough oil to fill up a football stadium.

[pleah]

56. I can smell it every morning when I go outside.

It was really strong this morning. :(
BP is still telling people they don't have to were protective masks when working at the clean up areas of the beaches.
Anyone who would listen to bp about this is a fucking fool.

[LibDemAlways]

57. My husband suspects that the military may have the knowhow to cap the thing, but

doing so would involve the revelation of proprietary government secrets. If he's onto something, he's suggesting that the government would rather see the gulf destroyed than let the public in on its technology. I wouldn't doubt it for a moment.

[maryf]

58. K&R nt

[BelgianMadCow]

59. 12-19000 bopd was the range on the LOWER BOUNDS

of the estimate of the two teams comprising the govt panel.

They said they were unable to estimate upper bounds (!)...

How that got translated to 13-19 as "the" estimate..?

[amborin]

60. aside from the environmental catastrophe, BP is making a mockery of our fed govn't

the gov't is sitting there allowing BP to continue to lie, suppress data, use toxic Corexit dispersant, et.........

[FirstTimeVoterAt37]

63. I'd only be shocked...

...if there was GOOD news. I hate it, but I don't feel I have much choice but to assume this estimate will be doubled over and over again until the day that damned thing finally runs dry, which may or may not happen in my lifetime. Gad, I can barely even watch Jon Stewart any more, it's so depressing.

We'll see what the new number is next week, I guess.

[cwydro]

67. What a huge surprise!

Still wondering why our administration did not accept the offers of help from other nations at the outset...

[LaurenG]

68. I think It's more than that, much more.

I am really concerned.
From NPR May 24,2010
Oceanography professor Ian MacDonald was among a group of scientists that found the amount of oil escaping from the spill in the Gulf is much higher than BP and the government estimated. Host Liane Hansen talks to MacDonald about why the numbers were so different and the importance of taking accurate measurements.

....

HANSEN: What are some of your findings?

Professor MACDONALD: Well, we separately examined the satellite images of the oil slick, of which there are very many, and the video showing the discharge of oil from the broken well. And we independently concluded that there's between 40,000 and 100,000 barrels of oil escaping from the well, per day. And thats actually pretty close to BP's worst case scenario. We think the worst case scenario has been in effect all along.

HANSEN: But why are the numbers that BP and the government putting out so different?

Professor MACDONALD: Well, BP is obviously spinning this story. The government formed a Flow Rate Task Force, or Flow Rate Technical Team, which was mandated to produce better numbers by last night. They did not deliver those numbers, however. They failed to meet their deadline. BP was supposed to furnish substantial information to them - technical drawings and so forth. It's not clear whether BP actually did that. There's a lot of foot dragging here.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=127069433

[katty]

71. it was VERY BAD news the day it happened-the Horror continues

[earth mom]

72. Didn't someone here on DU already tell us this? BP is nothing but a lying piece o'shit!

:puke:

[frustrated_lefty]

73. Thank god, I thought you were going to say Cheney was in charge

[cwydro]

74. Kicking this...

[democrank]

75. Um, would anyone here have Dick Cheney`s phone number ?

He`s probably at one of those game preserves where they raise those birds for him to kill by the hundreds. Anyhow, if anyone runs into him, ask him if he could put on his orange vest and lead a clean-up mission in the Gulf. He`s an oil expert and the unemployed oyster shuckers could use some help.


Wait..if that doesn`t work, could someone check out golf courses in Texas and see if they can find Junior?

[NihiloZero]

79. The oil that's washing up on shore now...

The oil that has already reached shore is merely the first stuff that started spilling out weeks ago. This disaster is still in its earliest stages.