Pentagon report: Insurgencies like Iraq's usually last 10 years, but only win 41% of the time

[sabra]

http://www.usatoday.com/printedition/news/20070509/a_insurgencies09.art.htm

Insurgencies like Iraq's usually last 10 years but fail, study says

WASHINGTON — Insurgencies, such as the one the United States is fighting in Iraq, last an average of more than 10 years, according to a study commissioned by the Defense Department.

For the United States, the good news is that rebels lose more often than they win. Chances for stopping an insurgency improve after 10 years, the study shows.

...

"The violence in Iraq is going to go on a minimum for at least three or four more years and in reality another five plus years," said Christopher Lawrence, director of The Dupuy Institute, which is conducting the study.

...

Not all insurgencies are quagmires, the report shows. Insurgents only win in 41% of the conflicts in the database, Lawrence said. The remainder were victories for the counterinsurgents, were inconclusive or are still going on.

:eyes:

[Phredicles]

1. So... now we're supposed to give it another 6 YEARS?

:puke:

[havocmom]

2. Tell it to the Soviet Union.

Oh, wait, can't do that. They fought 10 years against an insurgency.

[Solly Mack]

3. How would America know?

LMAO

[genie_weenie]

4. The DoD is so delusional

yes, turn of the century insurgencies The Boers, the Philippines were defeated. Prime reason, the insurgents weaponry. The Kalashnikov and plastique have altered the landscape. Insurgents can inflict a steady flow of death via force multipliers (IEDs, snipers, indirect fire weapons) which were unavailable even 100 years ago.

Additionally, and probably more importantly, the destruction of peoples through abhorrent methods (the Brits used concentration camps in South Africa) is no longer tolerated. This is due to in small part to people evolving morals and the removal of the gatekeepers of knowledge restraining the flow of information from war zones.

[atreides1]

8. Yes they are delusional

But when you work for a sociopath, I guess it helps!!!!

[skipos]

5. How did Vietnam play out again? nt

[TahitiNut]

6. The Viet Cong followed us home.

Didn't you notice? :dunce:

[Marr]

7. I'd be interested to know what they define as "fail" here.

Seems to me that occupying forces are usually pushed out in that time frame. People don't like having their country occupied, and they'll care about it alot longer than the occupying forces do.

[pansypoo53219]

9. bullshit.

historically inaccurate. i have been reading 1891 encyclopdia britannicas, and every single OCCUPATION ends in the home team winning. may take centuries, but eventually the win.
i am only up to the B. did read a 1903 F. but i can say that so far, occupations are a bad thing.

[Johonny]

10. but

Insurgents only make up X % of the people fighting in Iraq. The civil war on the other hand...

[Rydz777]

11. 41percent?

Did they round to the nearest digit? Was there a margin of error? Do they know how to take square roots? Do they know that pi is not square? These kinds of calculations are simply absurd.