What Could Make The Gulf Oil Spill Worse? How About a Hurricane. - TPM

[WillyT]

What Could Make The Gulf Oil Spill Worse? How About a Hurricane.
Brian Beutler | June 4, 2010, 8:36AM

<snip>

As if the situation in the Gulf wasn't bad enough already, we are now in hurricane season, and that means there's a decent chance that a tropical cyclone may complicate the cleanup efforts along the southern U.S. coast and disrupt effort to bring the blowout at the site of the sunken Deepwater Horizon under control.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, there are an average of 2.9 named storms and 1.4 hurricanes in the gulf each hurricane season; and 1.4 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes by the end of August. During a heavy season, as 2010 is expected to be, there can be many, many more. And historically, the site of the Deepwater Horizon well has been right in the heart of a hurricane corridor.


(This image, courtesy of NOAA, maps all tropical storms and hurricanes of the past 100 years that passed near the site of the spill, signified by the red star in the center.)

"You have to hire as many supertankers as you can find and pump as much of into them before hurricane season. Once the hurricane's come, the game is over. You can take a big tar mop and paint the Gulf Coast black." That was the dim view of a Houston-based investment bank founder, and energy expert, as quoted in the Washington Post. Hurricane season, he said, would disperse the oil in the gulf and wash some of it on to the Gulf shore, drastically complicating clean up efforts. And sadly he may be right.

So what happens if a big storm hits?

"There's a bunch of impacts," says William Drennan, a hurricane expert at the University of Miami's Rosentiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science.

"If you get a storm which is coming toward the coast you can get a significant storm surge," Drennan told me in an interview Thursday afternoon. "If you get a storm surge, then the top meter of the water is going to go...certainly hundreds of feet possibly miles inland."

That, he said, could propel oil "deep into the marshland," where the ecological impact could be worse than if the oil remained on the surface or slightly below.

"The ideal situation would be to keep it away from land," Drennan says. "If it could be kept away from lands, the wet lands tend to be very good hatcheries of everything from fish to birds.... Once you go the oil deep into the wetlands it'll take a long time before it gets flushed back."

Similarly, Drennan said, a big storm will cause mixing in the ocean, drawing oil from the water column below back up to the surface, where it can again be flushed ashore.

All of this is to say nothing of the impact on the ongoing efforts to cap the gushing well. Not only would work crews have to be brought in to port to wait out the storm, but the storm could damage the rigs being used to drill the two relief wells.

"They'd have to shut down completely the process of drilling," Drennan says. "If it were to damage the rig which is drilling the two relief wells, if it were to damage those rigs--that would be an issue."

All of this, he says, is something that the government and other agents in charge of the rescue effort "should be quite worried about."

And they are. NOAA was quick to release talking points about the potential impact of a hurricane on the oil spill, which reinforce much of what Drennan told me, but also seek to downplay the risk, and don't touch on the more pragmatic consequences a 400-mile wide storm would have on rescue and cleanup. By the same token, the fact sheet highlights some of the salutary effects a hurricane could have on the spill. "The high winds and seas will mix and 'weather' the oil which can help accelerate the biodegradation process," reads one bullet point.

Additionally, NOAA advises, "A hurricane passing to the west of the oil slick could drive oil to the coast. A hurricane passing to the east of the slick could drive the oil away from the coast."

What you won't find, however, is anybody saying that a big tropical storm or hurricane will make things easier.

<snip>

Link: http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/06/what-could-make-the-gulf-oil-spill-worse-how-about.php

:shrug:

[DrDan]

1. I thought Obama said yesterday that a powerful hurrricane could be a good thing. . . .

[chill_wind]

4. He said a hurricane could be less damaging than a tropical storm, according to this:

Obama told CNN's Larry King in an interview he had raised those concerns in a recent meeting at the White House on the oil spill.

"It turns out that -- now these are all estimations and probabilities -- it turns out that a big, powerful hurricane, ironically is probably less damaging with respect to the oil spill because it just disperses everything and the oil breaks up and degrades more quickly," Obama said, according to an advance transcript of the interview to be broadcast on Thursday night.

A bigger concern, he said, were less powerful tropical storms that would not break up the oil but wash it ashore and into ecologically fragile marshlands along the Gulf coast.

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N03264725.htm

[Whisp]

8. you thought wrong, he never said it would be a 'good thing'.

feh

[madfloridian]

9. He said a "big" hurricane would work better than a small one.

And he failed to mention the devastation accompanying a big one.

I was called "unhinged" and "irrational" yesterday for speaking against his words that a big hurricane would be better than a little one.

A big one would do more damage and spread more toxins.

The president used propaganda.

[Whisp]

10. he never said it was a 'good thing'. please find a source for that.

[Bluebear]

11. Well gee, some DUers said that was what "many scientists" have been saying & Obama was right!

It's so confusing.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=389&topic_id=8484901

[Whisp]

12. i don't want to hunt and peck for the quote. please find it for me.

find Obama saying thats it would be a 'good thing' that if a huge hurricane came along.

I have read the scientific and weather peoples stories on this, and none of them said it was a good thing either.

You are totally misunderstanding something, but then you want to.

[Whisp]

13. i don't want to hunt and peck for the quote. please find it for me.

find Obama saying thats it would be a 'good thing' that if a huge hurricane came along.

I have read the scientific and weather peoples stories on this, and none of them said it was a good thing either.

You are totally misunderstanding something, but then you want to.

[Bluebear]

14. 'You are totally misunderstanding something, but then you want to.' - aren't you a snot.

I don't "want" to not understand, that thread is full of people saying that scientists touted a hurricane as a fix...because they THOUGHT that Obama had said it.

Bye.

[Whisp]

15. you are making it sound like they are WISHING for a fucking hurricane.

you snot.

this is from a SCIENTIFIC point of view and how weather systems work and how the oil would react in certain conditions,


NO ONE IS FUCKING WISHING FOR A FUCKING HURRICANE.

[Bluebear]

18. /ignore - very unpleasant person, later!

[madfloridian]

16. Here are the words since you are too lofty to hunt and peck

""It turns out that -- now these are all estimations and probabilities -- it turns out that a big, powerful hurricane, ironically is probably less damaging with respect to the oil spill because it just disperses everything and the oil breaks up and degrades more quickly," Obama said, according to an advance transcript of the interview to be broadcast on Thursday night.

A bigger concern, he said, were less powerful tropical storms that would not break up the oil but wash it ashore and into ecologically fragile marshlands along the Gulf coast."

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE65040Y20100604

It was in the Reuters article, but they took it out. Who is they? Damned if I know.

Anyone who thinks a big hurricane is more beneficial in ANY way for ANY thing, needs to reexamine their thinking.

It would spread more toxins and oil to more places and put more people at risk.

[Whisp]

17. this is according to some scientific opinions. Obama is not hoping a hurricane will solve this.

he is just stating some weather facts passed onto him.

thats all there is to it.
how do you get there from here, I don't understand.

Now there will be hurricanes, that is certain. Espcially this year it sounds bad because of warmer water temperatures, but they won't be coming being Obama wished them to do so.

- your Sincerely.

A Lofty Snot

[madfloridian]

20. To defend Obama's words, some here say oh well hurrricanes will come anyway.

What does that have to do with what he said?

Yesterday some of us who saw the utter absurdity of giving good qualities to hurricanes were jumped on stomped on and called names.

Florida and the gulf states are facing total devastation as the years continue.

And your outrage is directed toward me?

Priorities, please.

[Whisp]

21. you'll have to pick someone else to continue this circular argument

I am not outraged at you, how the heck do you conclude that?

If you think I am outraged then you can also be wrong about other things.

sheesh.

Honestly sorry you are having such a bad time with this.

[Bluebear]

19. 'It turns out, by the way, that oil rigs today generally don’t cause spills.'

Just for our information :)

[DrDan]

22. I thought the point was that a major hurricane would break up the oil

that is a good thing I think

a major hurricane, not so much


feh

[global1]

2. So Obama Will Just Have To Decree That There Will Be No Hurricanes This Year......nt

[Individualist]

3. Not just oil, but that toxic dispersant crap as well. K&R

[OHdem10]

5. Two experts ( I cannot remember which TV channel) explained that

as strange as it sounds a hurricane would accelerate the dissipation
of the oil and therefore is not a bad thing in relation to the oil.

[Feron]

7. That is true, but there's a catch.

Hurricanes will disperse the oil and that will aid the microbes that feast on it. It will also mechanically clean some surfaces.

Unfortunately it will also bring oil to previously unoiled locations and drive oil further into the marsh.

Hopefully we will avoid a hurricane this year so that the operations can continue until the well is killed,but sadly the oil will be a problem for years even if the gusher is stopped today.

[arcadian]

How is Katrina not on that map?

:eyes:

[mnhtnbb]

23. Good catch!

[Bluebear]

24. !!

[alterfurz]

6. Michael Bay's worst case scenario (Warning: satire ahead)

@ http://xkcd.com/748/

"A hurricane tracks into the Gulf, whipping the surface of the spill into a frothy mix of oil and air. As the storm surges through the bayous, sparking power lines ignite the fuel/air mix into a roiling, alligator-filled wall of flame. Plowing northward, the fire-hurricane destroys the Old River control structure in Concordia, re-routing the Mississippi and sweeping Morgan City and the heart of Cajun country out to sea.
James Carville emerges from the conflagration riding a burning alligator..."

hey, it could happen!