Top Kill Watch: From BP - Technical update video explains the Top Kill

[flamingdem]

http://bp.concerts.com/gom/kentwells_update24052010.htm

Extensive & with graphics.

[flamingdem]

1. More Geek: Hindcast and forecast surface trajectories for Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill

http://ocg6.marine.usf.edu/~zheng/research/Oilspill/index.html

Ocean Circulation Group

[NYC_SKP]

2. This is the Best and Most Descriptive Explanation Yet Posted on DU, IMHO.

Understanding that it's a BP production, but everything there is consistent with what I've been reading from every reliable source.

Interesting other options:

LMRP Cap: cutting off the riser at top of BOP and dropping a Lower Marine Riser Package atop it, with a plunger that can drop to seal the opening.

And the BOP on BOP option: Dropping another BOP on top of the existing one.

Both of these require cutting off the riser and leaving a fairly flat surface to which to connect.

Hoping that Top Kill works, of course.

K and R.

:kick:

[flamingdem]

3. Engineer with live commentary on the scene via Twitter

http://twitter.com/jgrindal

# .@fatchuky Next option is LMRP cap, which is already being worked as a contingency if #topkill fails. #oilspill less than 10 seconds ago via web

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.@tlw3 Unfortunately, that's how it works. This situation is dealing with a LOT of variables that we have to consider. #topkill 2 minutes ago via web

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.@Shoq There is a chance that it could rupture shallow casing or damage internals on BOP. Odds are slim, but they ARE being acct'd 4. 3 minutes ago via web

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@rbfishman I would be happy to discuss with you after I return, but NDA's prevent me from discussing ops with press organizations. Sorry 4 minutes ago via web in reply to rbfishman

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@Crimson_Cougar Anxious right now. Most of us are confident in our solution, but we have to be careful, we only get 1 shot at this. 6 minutes ago via web in reply to Crimson_Cougar

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.@americanpapist Everyone is getting pressured on this, a decision will have to be made within a few hours. #oilspill #topkill 8 minutes ago via web

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# Executive Mgmt had a few concerns on risk due to the high flowrates. Additional data being collected and sent to them in real time. 9 minutes ago via web

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Just got the call. Top Kill delayed for the time being. Additional tests requested. #oilspill #topkill about 2 hours ago via Twitter for iPhone

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And now we wait. We are prepped and have submitted our package for exec approval shoreside. I'm going to grab a nap. #oilspill about 2 hours ago via mobile web

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Final (Hopefully) Ops Reviews. #oilspill #topkill about 6 hours ago via web

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@Dasani_01 6.30 CDT at the earliest. about 6 hours ago via web in reply to Dasani_01

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@Dasani_01 I'd grab some shuteye, we're going through everything right now and will still be a couple hrs before we pull the trigger. about 6 hours ago via web in reply to Dasani_01

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With an operation this size, coordination is both extremely difficult and extremely important. We're not cutting any corners. #oilspill about 6 hours ago via web

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@Dasani_01 Don't get discouraged, it will still be a few hours, but things are moving. Some problems here and there, but we're on it. about 6 hours ago via web in reply to Dasani_01

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@Dasani_01 Since we only get one shot at this, we're taking a lot of precautions and doing a lot of planning. about 6 hours ago via web in reply to Dasani_01

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Engineers meeting to review through all forseeable contingencies. All signs point to go at dawn. #oilspill #topkill #gushercam about 7 hours ago via web

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Looks like zero hour is fast approaching. I'm headed topside, will keep in touch as possible. Wish us luck! #oilspill #topkill about 8 hours ago via web

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.@blackgoldnews I have some downtime until they finish some subsea. Thought I would keep you in the loop. #oilspill #topkill about 8 hours ago via web

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.@TheRagingCelt Doing this required mobilization of some very rare equipment, and it has taken this long to get everything prepared for it. about 8 hours ago via web

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.@avivao @WhoDat35 In essence. Smooth flow is going to be critical in this whole operation. about 9 hours ago via web

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[bdamomma]

4. very informative but for me they are too late.

[flamingdem]

5. Oil Drum is tweeting Top Kill also

http://twitter.com/TheOilDrum

# @jgrindal so, so true. this is beyond CYA mode, entirely. but they won't go straight to the LMRP will they? (follow back-need to DM) 1 minute ago via TweetDeck in reply to jgrindal

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@jgrindal any ideas on the timeframe on the decision tree? 7 minutes ago via TweetDeck

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Here's the link to our technical/deep post on the top kill (from Engineers/Geologists) http://su.pr/1qSQ2J #BP #oilspill #oilpocalypse 12 minutes ago via TweetDeck

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Deep Water Spill - Waiting for Top Kill http://su.pr/1Xh1b9; yahoo news says this afternoon: http://su.pr/28lAt8 #oilspill #BP #oilpocalypse 32 minutes ago via Su.pr

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Deepwater Horizon: This is What the End of the Oil Age Looks Like by Rich Heinberg @postcarbon http://su.pr/2DwqAX #oilspill #oilpocalypse 34 minutes ago via Su.pr

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Live comment thread on the video link from the ROV monitoring the damaged riser http://su.pr/2UuKMY #BP #oilspill #oilpocalypse 36 minutes ago via Su.pr

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[flamingdem]

6. Live comment thread on the Oil Drum site on the BP video etc.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6508

[mopinko]

9. comment in this thread says top kill is postponed

pending further testing.

[flamingdem]

10. It's nice to hear this from someone who is working on it

though I think his boss will shut him down soon

he is:

http://www.twitter.com/jgrindal

[SidDithers]

7. Very informatinve, thanks for posting...nt

Sid

[flamingdem]

8. The Engineer just got in trouble from his boss - told to TONE IT DOWN!

See this at:
http://www.twitter.com/jgrindal

the last tweet:
Wow, just got a scathing call from mgmt, requesting I tone down my twitter info...

[mopinko]

11. oil drum now reporting about to start

salazar has left hearing to watch.

[flamingdem]

12. Top Kill is about to start? nt

[mopinko]

14. that is what they said on oil drum.

watching msnbc, and they are all talking, talking now and not watching, but....

[Junkdrawer]

13. I hope BP doesn't believe their own lies...

Because they're still pimping that 5000 bbl/day number and the real number is probably 95,000 bbl/day.

If they're going to try to push the oil all the way back down to the reservoir, they better understand that the pressure at 95,000 bbl/day is 20 times the pressure of 5,000 bbl/day.

[Statistical]

18. Pressure is not the same thing as flow.

Pressure washer has low flow but very high pressure.
Mississippi river has high flow but very low pressure.

[Junkdrawer]

19. But through a given size opening, the two are proportional. n/t

[Statistical]

20. True but not linear.

Also given that for a set pressure and set borsize the flow will be x BP claim of reduced flow is that the BOP is partially closed and pipe has reduced bore size. So in both situations 5,000bpd through obstructed pipe vs 50,000 bpd through unobstructed pipe the pressure is the same.

Still I think BP is smart enough to have two sets of books.
The 500bpd stats and the reality which engineers are using.
Well we better hope they are. :)

[flamingdem]

15. C-SPAN hearings on the oil gusher LIVE NOW

http://www.c-span.org/Watch/C-SPAN3.aspx

[flamingdem]

22. Live now nt

[flamingdem]

16. This sounds so dangerous - Oil Drum comment brings up concerns

<-> Kanga on May 26, 2010 - 1:20pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

The Top Kill is a challenging operation. I hope it will work.

The pressure inside the BOP will have to be increased in order to arrest the flow and overcome the formation pressure in the reservoir. The ambient (hydrostatic) pressure at the seabed is roughly 2300 psi. Currently the pressure inside the BOP is perhaps 4000 psi orso, leaking at 5000 bpm (3.5 bpm). The pressure inside the BOP will have to be raised to perhaps 8000 or 9000 psi in order to arrest and then reverse the flow. If no plugging materials have been injected into the BOP, the kill fluid could leak out of the BOP at between 10 or 30 bpm. How abrasive will the kill fluid be at these pressures and flow rates? In order to reduce this leaking flow, BP may elect to inject plugging materials into the BOP.

Then, with a bullheading pressure of perhaps 9000 psi, the kill fluid will have to be forced down the casing annulus. This will exert extreme pressure on the components of the outer protective casing strings. Of particular concern are the 22" casing and 16" casing. Has BP hydro tested these components (to failure) with similar stock materials to ensure that they can hold the required kill pressure?

The mud may be traveling down the hole at only 1 or 2 barrels per minute. The total annular kill volume is approx 1000 bbls. therefore the kill can take up to a day. Injection pressure should decline gradually during the kill. However, excess kill fluid is needed to cover the leak at the BOP.

[profgoose]

21. yes, this is very much a one-shot deal...

There are so many if's here...end result has to be that they put more pressure down than the oil/stuff pressure coming up, and do it in a way that doesn't blow the whole thing apart, oh yeah, and do that at 5000' underwater.

50/50 proposition at best. one shot. I would be surprised if they do it today...or at all. Still running tests.

[Scurrilous]

17. Thanks.

K & R :thumbsup: